Hedging is defined as holding two or more positions at the same time, where the purpose is to offset the losses in the first position by the gains received from the other position.
Usual hedging is to open a position for a currency A, then opening a reverse for this position on the same currency A. This type of hedging protects the trader from getting a margin call, as the second position will gain if the first loses, and vice versa.
However, traders developed more hedging techniques in order to try to benefit form hedging and make profits instead of just to offset losses.
In this page, we will discuss, some of the hedging techniques.
1. 100% Hedging.
This technique is the safest ever, and the most profitable of all hedging techniques while keeping minimal risks. This technique uses the arbitrage of interest rates (roll over rates) between brokers. In this type of hedging you will need to use two brokers. One broker which pays or charges interest at end of day, and the other should not charge or pay interest. However, in such cases the trader should try to maximize your profits, or in other words to benefit the utmost of this type of hedging.
The main idea about this type of hedging is to open a position of currency X at a broker which will pay you a high interest for every night the position is carried, and to open a reverse of that position for the same currency X with the broker that does not charge interest for carrying the trade. This way you will gain the interest or rollover that is credited to your account.
However there are many factors that you should take into consideration.
a. The currency to use. The best pair to use is the GBPJPY, because at the time of writing this article, the interest credited to your account will be 24 usd for every 1 regular long lot you have. However you should check with your broker because each broker credits a different amount. The range can be from $10 to $26.
b. The interest free broker. This is the hardest part. Before you open your account with such a broker, you should check the following: i. Does the broker allow opening the position for an unlimited time? ii. Does the broker charge commissions?
Some brokers charge $5 flat every night for each lot held, this is a good thing, although it seems not. Because, when the broker charges you money for keeping your position, the your broker will likely let you hold your position indefinitely.
c. Equity of your account. Hedging requires lots of money. For example, if you want to use the GBPJPY, you will need 20,000USD in each account. This is very necessary because the max monthly range for GBPJPY in the last few years was 2000 pips. You do not want one of your accounts to get a margin call. Do not forget that when you open your 2 positions at the 2 brokers, you will pay the spread, which is around 16 pips together. If you are using 1 regular lot, then this is around 145 usd. So you will enter the trades, losing 145 usd. So you will need the first 6 days just to cover the spread cost. Thus if you get a margin call again, you will need to close your other position, and then transfer money to your other account, and then re-open the positions. Every time this happens, you will lose 145 usd!
It is very important not to get a margin call. This can be maintained by a large equity, or a fast efficient way to transfer money between brokers.
d. Money management. One of the best ways to manage such an account is to monthly withdraw profits and balancing your positions. This can be done by withdrawing the excess from one account, take out the profits, and depositing the excess into the losing account to balance them. However, this can be costly. You should also check with your broker if he allows withdrawals while your position is still open. One efficient way of doing this is using the brokerage service withdrawals which is provided by third party companies.
Mar 31, 2009
5 EMAs FOREX SYSTEM, Exponential Moving Averages Full Potential
Among one of the important concepts a new forex trader should know is what a Moving Average means, how it's calculated and what its use as a trading indicator is.
Moving Average is defined as a technical indicator that shows the average value of a particular currency pair over a previously determined amount of time. This means, for example, that prices are averaged over 20 or 50 days, or 10 and 50 min depending on the time frame you are using at the moment of your trading activity.
As an averaged quantity, MA's can bee seen as a smoothed representation of the current market activity and an indicator of the major trend influencing the market behavior.
The basic mechanics of how Moving Averages can tell you where the forex market is moving (up or down), at the moment of your analysis is by considering two different time frame Moving Averages and plotting them on the forex chart. It is very important that one of these MA is over a shorter time period than the other one; let's say one will be over a 15 days period and the other over a 50 days period. Most trading station software available by a number of brokers will let you do this plotting and much more.
Recently there has been the realese of a new forex trading system called "The 5 EMAs FOREX SYSTEM". This system will allow you to identify both entry and exit points with incredible accuracy. He even claims you can convert $1000 into $1000 000 in just 24 months. He may be exaggerating a bit on this, but his plan of action and use of moving averages is quite outstanding and accurate.
Depending upon the exit strategy selected, the system generates monthly returns of between 30% and 55%. Which is more tha enough to make a living trading the forex markets with the 5 EMAs Forex System.
Moving Average is defined as a technical indicator that shows the average value of a particular currency pair over a previously determined amount of time. This means, for example, that prices are averaged over 20 or 50 days, or 10 and 50 min depending on the time frame you are using at the moment of your trading activity.
As an averaged quantity, MA's can bee seen as a smoothed representation of the current market activity and an indicator of the major trend influencing the market behavior.
The basic mechanics of how Moving Averages can tell you where the forex market is moving (up or down), at the moment of your analysis is by considering two different time frame Moving Averages and plotting them on the forex chart. It is very important that one of these MA is over a shorter time period than the other one; let's say one will be over a 15 days period and the other over a 50 days period. Most trading station software available by a number of brokers will let you do this plotting and much more.
Recently there has been the realese of a new forex trading system called "The 5 EMAs FOREX SYSTEM". This system will allow you to identify both entry and exit points with incredible accuracy. He even claims you can convert $1000 into $1000 000 in just 24 months. He may be exaggerating a bit on this, but his plan of action and use of moving averages is quite outstanding and accurate.
Depending upon the exit strategy selected, the system generates monthly returns of between 30% and 55%. Which is more tha enough to make a living trading the forex markets with the 5 EMAs Forex System.
Automated Trading Systems for Financial Markets and Recommendations for Their Usage
1. Introductions
Today, using information and trading platforms has become a de facto requirement for successful trading in the financial markets. Their advantages as compared to conventional trading schemes include, for example, an unprecedented speed of processing and delivery of information to end users, the level of integration with data providers, and a wide array of built-in technical analysis instruments.
At the same time, an investor opening an account with a brokerage firm simply cannot simultaneously manage the real-time analysis and trade in more than 4-6 financial instruments in several markets 24 hours 7 days a week. This brings about the need to employ automatic trading systems in the form of runtime environment with client and server parts and the programs to control these systems (scripts).
2. Comparative Analysis of the Problem Area
Various software components embrace the entire target sector of the market-from analytics and forecasting to complex trade and administration. The components of a trading platform provide its clients-brokers, dealers, traders, financial analysts and advisors-just the service they need at the very moment they need it, from immediate round-the-clock access to information of concern by means of mobile devices, to multi-move trading operations in the major client terminal.
The software market offers a great many of information and trading platforms that differ, first of all, in the functionality of the client and server parts, and the list of services provided by the financial company once an account has been opened. However, only a relatively small number of software solutions include the components that automate trading.
2.1. MetaTrader4-based Solutions
One of the world's most widely used trade platform products is apparently MetaTrader4, developed by MetaQuotes Software Corporat?on for Forex market trading. The platform includes an integrated development environment (IDE) MetaEd?tor, intended for writing scripts in a programming language called MetaQuotes Language, or MQL4 for short. The language's syntax is based on the classic C language syntax, and the flow logic has not been significantly changed since the previous version of the platform that used MQL II as the programming language. The new automated trade framework is, undoubtedly, an evolution of the previous one. Both languages feature good functionality, with an optimum set of built-in trading and utility functions which is quite sufficient to implement the basic operations, and a facility to define custom functions to help implement non-standard ideas.
From the programming point of view, MQL4 is much more convenient that its predecessor; this language is more oriented at professional programmers, while MQL II, in my opinion, will rather suit financial experts wishing to build trading programs (or trading advisors, in the MetaQuotes terminology) of their own.
2.2. Omega Research-based Solutions
In the New World, the vast majority of companies use the Omega Research platform developed by TradeStation Securities, Inc. This platform has long ago proven its worth at the worldwide market, and to date experts consider it to be the best system for technical analysis. The provided IDE called Omega Research PowerEditor is intended to create control programs in EasyLanguage (EL).
The language's major advantage that strikes the eye is the easiness (hence is the name) of placing opening and closing orders. The corresponding program instructions can be written such as if we were formulating an order to our broker in the plain human language. In MQL4, for example, placing an order to open a position would involve specifying about a dozen of various parameters. In EasyLanguage, the same can be expressed in a short statement using a few words. Working with technical indicators is about that simple, too. But don't fall under an illusion: when creating these simple commands, language developers sacrificed the functionality and limited the possible ways of using a particular function, therefore effectively depriving the IDE users of the opportunity to accurately implement their own algorithms.
TradeStation decided not to create extensive libraries of built-in trading and utility functions but to limit to only an essential set. As the platform advanced, the number of functions written by both in-house and third-party developers grew, and TradeStation simply included them as user-defined functions into the repository of its scripts. As a result, the functionality offered to users is not in the least scarcer than that of MetaQuotes product.
PowerEditor provides a built-in dictionary that lets user search and get help on the available functions. Another handy tool worth mentioning is the strategy builder. Using the strategy builder, the user can easily create a basic algorithm for his or her trading program, and then modify and adjust it as necessary.
EasyLanguage is an old-timer and pioneer in the field of creating automated trading systems for the stock market. It was the basis for the development of MQL II. EasyLanguage will be a good choice for programmers, but still a better one for financial experts more oriented at analyzing the market than trading.
2.3. ProTrader-based Solutions
Professional financial experts can choose the ProTrader2 or ProTraderFX platform as their working tool, depending on the type of the financial market-stock or Forex, respectively. The two platforms are developed and supported by PFSoft LLC. While featuring the specially developed ProTrader Language (PTL), the provided IDE named PTL Builder offers also the opportunity to create scripts in MQLII, MQL4 and EasyLanguage. For this, the text of the program is translated to a language-independent code. Therefore, at runtime it does not matter in which language the script was written. This technology does not only enable creating new scripts, but makes it possible to use freely the entire accumulated collection of scripts that many experienced traders possess.
The main idea put into the new scripting language was to ensure maximum reliability and predictability of the scripts being run. The PTL language is built so as to minimize the possibility of making a mistake in the text of a user's script-the potentially dangerous points will be detected even before the script is tested or launched.
Regardless of the programming language chosen, the platform works with verified managed code while running the script. This Microsoft-developed technology enables proper handling of errors that cannot be detected before the script is run. This means the program will not fail and will not perform any unwanted operations that might be due to critical errors or damage caused by another program, for which the account holder would eventually have to pay.
The PTL Builder IDE will serve well both financial experts and programmers thanks to its support of different programming languages and provided tools such as tester and debugger.
2.4. Solution Comparison
The above IDEs have their specific feature sets. The table below provides a summary comparison of the capabilities offered by each.
3. Approaches for Creating Automated Trading Systems and Recommendations for Using Them
It hardly needs mentioning that choosing an information and trading platform should be taken with all seriousness. For those who plan to use an automated trading system in their business, below are some points I would recommend considering, based on my personal experience.
3.1. Choosing a Working Environment
First of all, define the type of tasks the automated trading system is to perform. These could be:
Actual trading: opening and closing positions in selected instrument(s).
Secondary support-type functions. These could include placing protective orders, creating and sending out reports of notifications.
Analyzing the market with different technical analysis tools using your own algorithm.
Now, after you have studied user comments on the Internet and perhaps consulted your broker, proceed to getting the feel of the products offered. I strongly encourage you not to just have a cursory look, but to test the system for a day of two, thankfully, most of the large companies will let you sign up for a demo account for testing. Pay attention to both the convenience of the IDE and the tools that go with it, and to reliability and security of the control programs created with the IDE.
3.2. Creating a Control Program
If you are planning to create your own scripts, take the time to study the documentation for the programming language and the IDE. Naturally, for an automated trading system to be expertly organized, the scripts should be written by qualified professionals in the field of programming and finance. In case you wish to use one of the classic programs, remember that most of them are of trial, demonstration nature. They are good for testing the automated trading system or to be used as a basis for your own programs, but as self-sustaining, ready-to-use solutions they are of little avail.
If you decide to use programs written by third-party developers, keep in mind that good solutions will have to be paid for. The cost of one innovative strategy varies between $300 and $500, but the price for fine-tuned strategies that use advanced mathematical and economic techniques and especially for winners and runners-up of automated trading championships may exceed $1,000.
3.3. Testing Scripts
When using an automated trading system, always test your scripts. The procedure can be as follows:
1. Test the program in a script tester (if such facility is available in your IDE) several times, varying the chart period, the instrument being traded, and the program settings. Try to model the conditions close to the actual state of the market.
2. Test the script in a demo account (if such an opportunity is available). At this stage, it is important to let the program run for a sufficiently long time (it is defined by the period of the chart). Do not stop the test if the program has at once produced a big gain or a big loss. The usefulness of the script can only be estimated after it has worked for a significant amount of time.
3. Run the script in the live account. At this stage, it is not advisable to interfere with the script-for example, close the positions it has opened or modify their settings-or you can upset the internal logic of the program.
3.4. How Not to Fall Prey to Tricks When Choosing a Script
Remember that there are no absolutely perfect advisers. So, do not let them sell you the Brooklyn Bridge-if you had a system that brings in fabulous profits, would you sell it? There is only one advice-a rigorous comprehensive testing will help you get the right impression about the script offered.
Usually, script vendors describe their products with the results of their own testing. In most cases, however, such results are very slanted. Remember that testing should always be performed on several histories, or you can simply adjust to one history fragment and show sky-high results. Based on the NFL theorem, it is fair to say that it is impossible to create a script that would the best of all those existing, in all instruments.
Some professional programmers use sophisticated mathematical tools to endow their programs with artificial intelligence-neural networks, forecasting and evolutionary algorithms are no longer surprising. I would not recommend overestimating such systems-complex forecasting algorithms are very sensitive to errors and parameter settings, while simple schemes are not of much help to the advisor when it comes to generating trade signals, and can only be used to raise the price of the script.
4. Conclusion
In this article, I neither discuss any programming rules for creating the advisors, nor the specifics of writing scripts in a particular language. On these subjects, there are whole books written as well as a number of articles. My aim was to present several points which I think to be quite important but which have not been sufficiently covered in existing publications.
So, are automated trading systems your ally or enemy? When used carefully and without hasty judgments, an automated trading system can facilitate the financial expert's work and bring in certain profits. But when used incorrectly, incompletely tested, or having settings changed frequently, the automated trading system can lose the money you entrust to it.
Remember that an automated trading system is not going to do your job for you without any effort on your part. Use it to solve your existing problems and not add new ones.
5. References
1. MetaQuotes — developer of MetaTrader, MQL2 and MQL4
2. TradeStation — developers of TradeStation and EasyLanguage
3. PFSoft — developers of ProTraderFX, ProTrader2 and ProTraderLanguage
Today, using information and trading platforms has become a de facto requirement for successful trading in the financial markets. Their advantages as compared to conventional trading schemes include, for example, an unprecedented speed of processing and delivery of information to end users, the level of integration with data providers, and a wide array of built-in technical analysis instruments.
At the same time, an investor opening an account with a brokerage firm simply cannot simultaneously manage the real-time analysis and trade in more than 4-6 financial instruments in several markets 24 hours 7 days a week. This brings about the need to employ automatic trading systems in the form of runtime environment with client and server parts and the programs to control these systems (scripts).
2. Comparative Analysis of the Problem Area
Various software components embrace the entire target sector of the market-from analytics and forecasting to complex trade and administration. The components of a trading platform provide its clients-brokers, dealers, traders, financial analysts and advisors-just the service they need at the very moment they need it, from immediate round-the-clock access to information of concern by means of mobile devices, to multi-move trading operations in the major client terminal.
The software market offers a great many of information and trading platforms that differ, first of all, in the functionality of the client and server parts, and the list of services provided by the financial company once an account has been opened. However, only a relatively small number of software solutions include the components that automate trading.
2.1. MetaTrader4-based Solutions
One of the world's most widely used trade platform products is apparently MetaTrader4, developed by MetaQuotes Software Corporat?on for Forex market trading. The platform includes an integrated development environment (IDE) MetaEd?tor, intended for writing scripts in a programming language called MetaQuotes Language, or MQL4 for short. The language's syntax is based on the classic C language syntax, and the flow logic has not been significantly changed since the previous version of the platform that used MQL II as the programming language. The new automated trade framework is, undoubtedly, an evolution of the previous one. Both languages feature good functionality, with an optimum set of built-in trading and utility functions which is quite sufficient to implement the basic operations, and a facility to define custom functions to help implement non-standard ideas.
From the programming point of view, MQL4 is much more convenient that its predecessor; this language is more oriented at professional programmers, while MQL II, in my opinion, will rather suit financial experts wishing to build trading programs (or trading advisors, in the MetaQuotes terminology) of their own.
2.2. Omega Research-based Solutions
In the New World, the vast majority of companies use the Omega Research platform developed by TradeStation Securities, Inc. This platform has long ago proven its worth at the worldwide market, and to date experts consider it to be the best system for technical analysis. The provided IDE called Omega Research PowerEditor is intended to create control programs in EasyLanguage (EL).
The language's major advantage that strikes the eye is the easiness (hence is the name) of placing opening and closing orders. The corresponding program instructions can be written such as if we were formulating an order to our broker in the plain human language. In MQL4, for example, placing an order to open a position would involve specifying about a dozen of various parameters. In EasyLanguage, the same can be expressed in a short statement using a few words. Working with technical indicators is about that simple, too. But don't fall under an illusion: when creating these simple commands, language developers sacrificed the functionality and limited the possible ways of using a particular function, therefore effectively depriving the IDE users of the opportunity to accurately implement their own algorithms.
TradeStation decided not to create extensive libraries of built-in trading and utility functions but to limit to only an essential set. As the platform advanced, the number of functions written by both in-house and third-party developers grew, and TradeStation simply included them as user-defined functions into the repository of its scripts. As a result, the functionality offered to users is not in the least scarcer than that of MetaQuotes product.
PowerEditor provides a built-in dictionary that lets user search and get help on the available functions. Another handy tool worth mentioning is the strategy builder. Using the strategy builder, the user can easily create a basic algorithm for his or her trading program, and then modify and adjust it as necessary.
EasyLanguage is an old-timer and pioneer in the field of creating automated trading systems for the stock market. It was the basis for the development of MQL II. EasyLanguage will be a good choice for programmers, but still a better one for financial experts more oriented at analyzing the market than trading.
2.3. ProTrader-based Solutions
Professional financial experts can choose the ProTrader2 or ProTraderFX platform as their working tool, depending on the type of the financial market-stock or Forex, respectively. The two platforms are developed and supported by PFSoft LLC. While featuring the specially developed ProTrader Language (PTL), the provided IDE named PTL Builder offers also the opportunity to create scripts in MQLII, MQL4 and EasyLanguage. For this, the text of the program is translated to a language-independent code. Therefore, at runtime it does not matter in which language the script was written. This technology does not only enable creating new scripts, but makes it possible to use freely the entire accumulated collection of scripts that many experienced traders possess.
The main idea put into the new scripting language was to ensure maximum reliability and predictability of the scripts being run. The PTL language is built so as to minimize the possibility of making a mistake in the text of a user's script-the potentially dangerous points will be detected even before the script is tested or launched.
Regardless of the programming language chosen, the platform works with verified managed code while running the script. This Microsoft-developed technology enables proper handling of errors that cannot be detected before the script is run. This means the program will not fail and will not perform any unwanted operations that might be due to critical errors or damage caused by another program, for which the account holder would eventually have to pay.
The PTL Builder IDE will serve well both financial experts and programmers thanks to its support of different programming languages and provided tools such as tester and debugger.
2.4. Solution Comparison
The above IDEs have their specific feature sets. The table below provides a summary comparison of the capabilities offered by each.
3. Approaches for Creating Automated Trading Systems and Recommendations for Using Them
It hardly needs mentioning that choosing an information and trading platform should be taken with all seriousness. For those who plan to use an automated trading system in their business, below are some points I would recommend considering, based on my personal experience.
3.1. Choosing a Working Environment
First of all, define the type of tasks the automated trading system is to perform. These could be:
Actual trading: opening and closing positions in selected instrument(s).
Secondary support-type functions. These could include placing protective orders, creating and sending out reports of notifications.
Analyzing the market with different technical analysis tools using your own algorithm.
Now, after you have studied user comments on the Internet and perhaps consulted your broker, proceed to getting the feel of the products offered. I strongly encourage you not to just have a cursory look, but to test the system for a day of two, thankfully, most of the large companies will let you sign up for a demo account for testing. Pay attention to both the convenience of the IDE and the tools that go with it, and to reliability and security of the control programs created with the IDE.
3.2. Creating a Control Program
If you are planning to create your own scripts, take the time to study the documentation for the programming language and the IDE. Naturally, for an automated trading system to be expertly organized, the scripts should be written by qualified professionals in the field of programming and finance. In case you wish to use one of the classic programs, remember that most of them are of trial, demonstration nature. They are good for testing the automated trading system or to be used as a basis for your own programs, but as self-sustaining, ready-to-use solutions they are of little avail.
If you decide to use programs written by third-party developers, keep in mind that good solutions will have to be paid for. The cost of one innovative strategy varies between $300 and $500, but the price for fine-tuned strategies that use advanced mathematical and economic techniques and especially for winners and runners-up of automated trading championships may exceed $1,000.
3.3. Testing Scripts
When using an automated trading system, always test your scripts. The procedure can be as follows:
1. Test the program in a script tester (if such facility is available in your IDE) several times, varying the chart period, the instrument being traded, and the program settings. Try to model the conditions close to the actual state of the market.
2. Test the script in a demo account (if such an opportunity is available). At this stage, it is important to let the program run for a sufficiently long time (it is defined by the period of the chart). Do not stop the test if the program has at once produced a big gain or a big loss. The usefulness of the script can only be estimated after it has worked for a significant amount of time.
3. Run the script in the live account. At this stage, it is not advisable to interfere with the script-for example, close the positions it has opened or modify their settings-or you can upset the internal logic of the program.
3.4. How Not to Fall Prey to Tricks When Choosing a Script
Remember that there are no absolutely perfect advisers. So, do not let them sell you the Brooklyn Bridge-if you had a system that brings in fabulous profits, would you sell it? There is only one advice-a rigorous comprehensive testing will help you get the right impression about the script offered.
Usually, script vendors describe their products with the results of their own testing. In most cases, however, such results are very slanted. Remember that testing should always be performed on several histories, or you can simply adjust to one history fragment and show sky-high results. Based on the NFL theorem, it is fair to say that it is impossible to create a script that would the best of all those existing, in all instruments.
Some professional programmers use sophisticated mathematical tools to endow their programs with artificial intelligence-neural networks, forecasting and evolutionary algorithms are no longer surprising. I would not recommend overestimating such systems-complex forecasting algorithms are very sensitive to errors and parameter settings, while simple schemes are not of much help to the advisor when it comes to generating trade signals, and can only be used to raise the price of the script.
4. Conclusion
In this article, I neither discuss any programming rules for creating the advisors, nor the specifics of writing scripts in a particular language. On these subjects, there are whole books written as well as a number of articles. My aim was to present several points which I think to be quite important but which have not been sufficiently covered in existing publications.
So, are automated trading systems your ally or enemy? When used carefully and without hasty judgments, an automated trading system can facilitate the financial expert's work and bring in certain profits. But when used incorrectly, incompletely tested, or having settings changed frequently, the automated trading system can lose the money you entrust to it.
Remember that an automated trading system is not going to do your job for you without any effort on your part. Use it to solve your existing problems and not add new ones.
5. References
1. MetaQuotes — developer of MetaTrader, MQL2 and MQL4
2. TradeStation — developers of TradeStation and EasyLanguage
3. PFSoft — developers of ProTraderFX, ProTrader2 and ProTraderLanguage
Mar 24, 2009
An Overview Of Forex Investing Strategies
Forex trading refers to an international, 24/7, over the counter, exchange market where currencies of different nations are bought and sold. Trading is always done in pairs assuming the price of currency bought to go up and that sold to fall down. It is the largest liquid financial market making it impossible for any single investor to influence the prices of currencies.
There are two kinds of Forex investing strategies:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Technical analysis is mostly undertaken by small and medium size investors. A technical analysis considers factors that are actually affecting the market rather than factors that can affect it. Thus the price quoted reflects all the factors that have influenced it. Only market generated facts and figures are taken into account and factors like fear, hope, expectations or other changes are not considered. Thus the analysis is generally based on these suppositions:
* Price reflects all actual market movements. That means price includes everything known to the market like supply and demand of foreign exchange, political factors, trade agreements etc. It is not concerned with what resulted in change rather deals with actual changes. It works on the assumption that price can take only one of the three directions:
Upward, downward and sideward
* It rest on those market patterns that have been identified as significant. That means those factors which are repetitive in nature or will produce desired results.
* History always repeats itself as human psychology changes very slowly with time. That is market movements are predictable.
VARIOUS TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE:
1. RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX:
It takes into account the ratio of upward and downward movements in index and expresses it in the range of zero to hundred.
2.CHARTS:
Charts include various hills, slopes, curves that develop on a chart over a time and reflect some major and minor changes in pattern. Some of the chart formations include:
* TRIANGLE * RECTANGLE * HEAD AND SHOULDERS * DOUBLE TOP AND BOTTOM * SAUCERS * V
3.GAPS:
A gap represents area on a bar chart where no trading took place.
* UPGAP: it is formed when the lowest price on a particular day is more than the highest price of previous day.
* DOWNGAP: it is formed when highest price of a certain day is less than the lowest price on previous day.
NUMBERS:
Various number theories are used in technical analysis like:
* Fibonacci theory * GANN
STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR:
This indicates the overbought or/and undersold condition. It uses a scale of zero to hundred percent.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
It is the one where current economic, political, financial situation of the country of currency is studied. A country's economical and political condition depends upon many factors like the interest rate, unemployment level, exports and imports, per capita income, percentage of population living above and below the poverty line, inflation, trade relations with other countries, tax policies etc.
A fundamental analyst studies and evaluates all these factors before coming to any decision. Thus it helps in long tem decision making and making profits in short term by extra ordinary developments.
Some of the indicators that help in fundamental analysis include:
1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
It reflects total market value of all the goods and services produced in a country during a given year.
2. RETAIL SALES:
This reflects total receipts by all the retail stores in a country.
3. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX:
It reflects change in prices of consumer goods.
4. BUSINESS CYCLE:
It reflects various phases through which a business passes. These phases include:
* EXPANSION * PEAK * RECESSION * DEPRESSION
5. MONETRY POLICY:
It controls the supply of money in an economy.
Trading successfully needs knowledge, time and understanding of a market. You cannot earn continuously in a Forex market due to its volatile nature. Thus as a trader you should try to consider both technical and fundamental strategies of forex trading and make decision based on market expectations and trends. Try trading with money that you can afford to loose without any regrets. Trade with logic and if you are not sure quit and take rest for some time.
There are two kinds of Forex investing strategies:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Technical analysis is mostly undertaken by small and medium size investors. A technical analysis considers factors that are actually affecting the market rather than factors that can affect it. Thus the price quoted reflects all the factors that have influenced it. Only market generated facts and figures are taken into account and factors like fear, hope, expectations or other changes are not considered. Thus the analysis is generally based on these suppositions:
* Price reflects all actual market movements. That means price includes everything known to the market like supply and demand of foreign exchange, political factors, trade agreements etc. It is not concerned with what resulted in change rather deals with actual changes. It works on the assumption that price can take only one of the three directions:
Upward, downward and sideward
* It rest on those market patterns that have been identified as significant. That means those factors which are repetitive in nature or will produce desired results.
* History always repeats itself as human psychology changes very slowly with time. That is market movements are predictable.
VARIOUS TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE:
1. RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX:
It takes into account the ratio of upward and downward movements in index and expresses it in the range of zero to hundred.
2.CHARTS:
Charts include various hills, slopes, curves that develop on a chart over a time and reflect some major and minor changes in pattern. Some of the chart formations include:
* TRIANGLE * RECTANGLE * HEAD AND SHOULDERS * DOUBLE TOP AND BOTTOM * SAUCERS * V
3.GAPS:
A gap represents area on a bar chart where no trading took place.
* UPGAP: it is formed when the lowest price on a particular day is more than the highest price of previous day.
* DOWNGAP: it is formed when highest price of a certain day is less than the lowest price on previous day.
NUMBERS:
Various number theories are used in technical analysis like:
* Fibonacci theory * GANN
STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR:
This indicates the overbought or/and undersold condition. It uses a scale of zero to hundred percent.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
It is the one where current economic, political, financial situation of the country of currency is studied. A country's economical and political condition depends upon many factors like the interest rate, unemployment level, exports and imports, per capita income, percentage of population living above and below the poverty line, inflation, trade relations with other countries, tax policies etc.
A fundamental analyst studies and evaluates all these factors before coming to any decision. Thus it helps in long tem decision making and making profits in short term by extra ordinary developments.
Some of the indicators that help in fundamental analysis include:
1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
It reflects total market value of all the goods and services produced in a country during a given year.
2. RETAIL SALES:
This reflects total receipts by all the retail stores in a country.
3. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX:
It reflects change in prices of consumer goods.
4. BUSINESS CYCLE:
It reflects various phases through which a business passes. These phases include:
* EXPANSION * PEAK * RECESSION * DEPRESSION
5. MONETRY POLICY:
It controls the supply of money in an economy.
Trading successfully needs knowledge, time and understanding of a market. You cannot earn continuously in a Forex market due to its volatile nature. Thus as a trader you should try to consider both technical and fundamental strategies of forex trading and make decision based on market expectations and trends. Try trading with money that you can afford to loose without any regrets. Trade with logic and if you are not sure quit and take rest for some time.
My FOREX Trading Strategy
I ventured into the Forex market a little more than 1 year ago. I have tried and tested many different types of trading techniques and styles. Most were failures and some were successful. From my experience, traders making money in Forex will not reveal their trading system, simply because somebody has to lose money in order for you to make money.
Currently I have two strategies working for me. I started with a demo account a little more than one year ago and used the obvious techniques such as technical analysis and fundamentals. Technical analysis seemed to be the easiest method for an inexperienced trader since it only required looking at charts as opposed to watching the news. I used indicators such as MACD, Fibonacci, and RSI to help assess the market and make a prediction on price movement. Needless to say I was successful in my demo account, however when I went live, fear set in and I could not trade using the same techniques I had developed over 4 months of trading with a demo account.
The stress was too much and like a lot of people, I started looking for a Forex signals provider to minimize the time spent and stress. After some due diligence on quite a few Forex signals providers, I did find a reliable Forex charting software package that provided excellent signals. To my surprise, the signals worked. The only difficult part was to discipline myself to take each signal whether I agreed with it or not. After all, the company I chose had a winning track record for 3 consecutive years.
Now that I had a positive flow of income from a Forex signals provider, I decided to open a second account using my own trading system. This is where I discovered what I feel is a full proof system when it comes to making a fast 30 to 50 pips in Forex.
Trading now for a little more than 1 year, I noticed that the market moved on speculation. Speculation based on fear and news events, such as the CPI and retail sales. I noticed that between the times of 4:30 am eastern and 8:30 am there was a lot of critical news in majors such as the Euro and the British Pound. The market would move at the exact moment these major news events were released. If a news event was due out at 4:30 am on the British Pound, more than likely the market spiked at that exact moment 30 to sometimes 50 pips up or down. What I started to do was trade on these news events. I would wait until that exact moment the news was due out and execute a trade when the market moved more than 7 pips from its current price 15 seconds before the news is released. A stop-loss should be set at 10 pips above or below the current price.
The trick to this method is executing the trade at the right time and discipline yourself to keep your stop-loss very tight, setting it to no more than 10 pips after you got into the trade. The reason being, this works all of the time, but if you click too soon or too late you could fail to predict the direction of the market. However, when you are right, your winning trades will outweigh your losing traders significantly since you are looking to make a gain of 30-50 pips and if you a wrong a loss of only 10 pips. I have used this method for 5 months and it works.
Currently I have two strategies working for me. I started with a demo account a little more than one year ago and used the obvious techniques such as technical analysis and fundamentals. Technical analysis seemed to be the easiest method for an inexperienced trader since it only required looking at charts as opposed to watching the news. I used indicators such as MACD, Fibonacci, and RSI to help assess the market and make a prediction on price movement. Needless to say I was successful in my demo account, however when I went live, fear set in and I could not trade using the same techniques I had developed over 4 months of trading with a demo account.
The stress was too much and like a lot of people, I started looking for a Forex signals provider to minimize the time spent and stress. After some due diligence on quite a few Forex signals providers, I did find a reliable Forex charting software package that provided excellent signals. To my surprise, the signals worked. The only difficult part was to discipline myself to take each signal whether I agreed with it or not. After all, the company I chose had a winning track record for 3 consecutive years.
Now that I had a positive flow of income from a Forex signals provider, I decided to open a second account using my own trading system. This is where I discovered what I feel is a full proof system when it comes to making a fast 30 to 50 pips in Forex.
Trading now for a little more than 1 year, I noticed that the market moved on speculation. Speculation based on fear and news events, such as the CPI and retail sales. I noticed that between the times of 4:30 am eastern and 8:30 am there was a lot of critical news in majors such as the Euro and the British Pound. The market would move at the exact moment these major news events were released. If a news event was due out at 4:30 am on the British Pound, more than likely the market spiked at that exact moment 30 to sometimes 50 pips up or down. What I started to do was trade on these news events. I would wait until that exact moment the news was due out and execute a trade when the market moved more than 7 pips from its current price 15 seconds before the news is released. A stop-loss should be set at 10 pips above or below the current price.
The trick to this method is executing the trade at the right time and discipline yourself to keep your stop-loss very tight, setting it to no more than 10 pips after you got into the trade. The reason being, this works all of the time, but if you click too soon or too late you could fail to predict the direction of the market. However, when you are right, your winning trades will outweigh your losing traders significantly since you are looking to make a gain of 30-50 pips and if you a wrong a loss of only 10 pips. I have used this method for 5 months and it works.
Profitable Forex Strategies and Techniques
This article is mostly for people that already know what the Forex market is and at least know the basic concepts. If you have no clue about what this market is or you have never heard about it, I will give you a very brief explanation bellow.
Forex is the acronym for Foreign Exchange Market. This is the biggest and most liquid market of the entire world today. One to three trillion dollars exchange hands at Forex every day. That's a huge amount of money. No stock market exchange of any country come close to this.
This market is huge. It is a sea of money full of sharks and dangerous waters, but it is also the only market where you at least hypothetically can make $1,000,000 in two weeks starting with only $1,000.
I say hypothetically because what happens often is that people blindly gamble their money at Forex without knowing anything about it and they lose their shirt. That's why I say to you: be careful! This market is profitable, but you need to learn the basics well, do your homework and demo trade a lot.
Just remember that 95% of traders lose money, 5% make it and less than 1% become rich at Forex. The nice thing about this market is that you can make money without creating any product or service, selling anything, nor advertising. You just trade some cash and get paid depending on your knowledge and expertise.
This is the market where banks, transnational corporations and individual traders exchange one currency for another. I am talking about the spot Forex market. You can trade at huge leverage as much as 400 to 1, meaning that for every dollar that you have for trading you can trade 400. For example if you have $1,000 on your account you can trade as much as $400,000.
This is dangerous. Most experienced traders won't use such a high leverage. In the other hand, high leverage can be good if you learn how to use it in your favor. Anyway, that's enough for the basics. If you want to learn more about how this market emerged, its history and so, then read my other articles.
Now let's talk about the strategies and how some traders make money at Forex. Let's start by saying that what works for me may not necessary work for you. Trading currencies is risky. That's a fact. But ultimately I discovered a few strategies that could give novice traders a winning edge.
Trading Forex is not as easy as most people think. Today you may be earning a lot and tomorrow you are losing 40% of your starting capital. Novice traders often make the same mistakes over and over again. I will enumerate a few of them bellow.
1. Do not look for a holly grail of trading.
This is for people who are afraid to lose or are too greedy and want to get rich quick. Even when it seems so, The Forex Market is not the place to get rich quick. Yes, you can make a lot of money over time and yes you don't have to sell anything, nor create or advertise any products. Still you have to learn a whole lot about what makes this market tick and what moves the price of the currencies plus how to manage your money effectively so you don't lose your shirt.
Many novice traders spend a LOT of time searching a perfect strategy that will allow them to always win-win and never lose. They want to have guaranteed profits because they can't stand to lose and/or they want to make too much (millions) quick so they can retire fast and buy a mansion in a far distant beautiful tropical island. It doesn't happen.
Don't waist your time. A trading strategy that allows you to have guaranteed profits do not exist. Trading is very risky. That's why it is so profitable. Remember: "no risk, no reward." So, do not try to always win on every trade. It is simply not possible. There is no way to get rid of the fact of uncertainty. What I mean is that no matter how effective your trading strategy may be, sometimes it will fail and you have to be ready to face this fact.
By not trying to find a perfect strategy that turns you into a millionaire fast, you will just save a ton of your own time and efforts. It doesn't exist. If you find it, please don't tell me about it. First I won't believe you. Second I don't need it. You will find out bellow why I say that I won't need it.
2. Use technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
When I started trading I didn't believe in this. I wanted to find a strategy which consisted of money management alone (which I explain bellow). This is not good! Money management is important but you still need the other two. You define ("predict") where the market is heading to depending on how effective your technical and fundamental strategies are.
Mastering technical analysis is the ability to predict future price movements by analyzing past price data and graphical patterns. You get a graphic of certain currencies. Check the data that you observe and based on your knowledge of technical analysis you "predict" with certain degree of accuracy where the market is going.
Many brokers allow you to add technical indicators to the graphs while you are trading. You can try this on a demo account and see how well you are able to define the future price movement of the currencies you plan to trade. One of those brokers is www.oanda.com.
There are many technical indicators. I can't tell which one will be more effective for you. Every trader is different. This is something that you will have to discover by yourself. There is not a hidden secret or magic formula for trading Forex. It is what you do every minute when you are in front of the graphics and checking the news what really counts.
The secret is in your overall knowledge and your decisions. This comes with experience and practice. If you open an account with one of these online brokers you can trade on paper before you trade with real money, so you can learn and practice before you risk any capital.
Let me tell you about a few technical indicators that you can use. You can use the MACD (Moving average convergence divergence), the Bollinger Bands, Pivot Points, RSI, Stochastic, Fibonacci, EMA, Elliot Waves and many others. There are in fact many technical indicators but these are among the most widely known and used.
When you add technical indicators to the graphic the brokers software will automatically perform mathematical calculations to reveal interesting facts and patterns about the graphics that you can't readily see without said indicators. You can use the technical indicators to create your own technical systems.
These systems will never work 100% of the time, but if they work 70% — 80% it may be enough. That's because you can control your risks with money management techniques as I describe bellow.
To further increase your probability of winning and reduce your probability of losing on every trade you can use fundamental analysis. I think that most traders choose one or the other but many traders use both.
Fundamental analysis is to trade the news. What is going on with the countries's economies of the currencies that you are trading? What is the unemployment index? Did something suddenly happen that could drastically affect the price of the currencies?
Trading the news is another effective way to "predict" where the market is going. Many online brokers offer you a link with important financial news. For example www.oanda.com has this feature. You can also find financial news on the following websites:
a) www.bloomberg.com
b) www.businessweek.com
c) www.economist.com
d) money.cnn.com
e) markets.ft.com
f) www.reuters.com
g) www.fxstreet.com
3. Use money management strategies.
You need money management techniques. This is what makes you or breaks you. Put it this way, most traders invest far too much of their trading capital on every trade. It is as follows . . . "Expect to make too much and you will make too little, expect to make little and you will make a lot."
What does it mean? It means that if you try to make a fortune on every trade you will lose your shirt. If you expect to make a little on every trade and you compound your profits, you may make a lot of money over the long run.
The first rule of money management says that you should not risk more than 1% of the money that you have on your account. You control this risk with stop loss and limit orders. When you start trading this may seem as little profits specially if you start with little trading capital. In the other hand if you compound some or all of your profits you may increase your account exponentially over time.
The magic of compound interest is amazing! This is the way that most fortunes are created on the financial markets, little by little. If you gamble your money you may lose it fast.
Many traders do exactly the opposite. Imagine that you open an account with $5,000 and you enter a trade for $1,000. Let's say that the market moves against you and you lose those $1,000. Now you have $4,000 on your account. You think that the price for the currencies is too low, so it should recover. In fact you are pretty sure that it will come back.
Then you invest $1,500 to recover from the previous loss plus realize a $500 profit. The market moves again against you. It kept going in the same direction, something that you didn't expected. What happens? Now you have $2,500 on your account. That's 50% of your initial trading capital. It will be very hard for you to recover from that loss.
In the other hand, if you risk 1% of your money on every trade, you will have $4,900 on your account after that initial loss. It will be much easier for you to recover from those trades.
The second rule of money management is to expect always to receive more profits than the money that you risk to lose. This can be accomplished through limit and stop orders as well as trailing stops.
For example if you expect to make a 25 pips profits on every trade, then you put the stop order at 15 pips bellow or above your entry price. A better way to have a greater expectancy ratio is to use trailing stops as I describe above. A trailing stop allows you to cut the loses short and let your winners ride.
These are the basic techniques that a successful trader should use to generate consistent profits at the Forex Market. This is basic information, but I realize that many people out there don't even know what Forex is, so I didn't want to get into more complex strategies here. You will find information about complex and advanced Forex strategies on my website.
Forex is the acronym for Foreign Exchange Market. This is the biggest and most liquid market of the entire world today. One to three trillion dollars exchange hands at Forex every day. That's a huge amount of money. No stock market exchange of any country come close to this.
This market is huge. It is a sea of money full of sharks and dangerous waters, but it is also the only market where you at least hypothetically can make $1,000,000 in two weeks starting with only $1,000.
I say hypothetically because what happens often is that people blindly gamble their money at Forex without knowing anything about it and they lose their shirt. That's why I say to you: be careful! This market is profitable, but you need to learn the basics well, do your homework and demo trade a lot.
Just remember that 95% of traders lose money, 5% make it and less than 1% become rich at Forex. The nice thing about this market is that you can make money without creating any product or service, selling anything, nor advertising. You just trade some cash and get paid depending on your knowledge and expertise.
This is the market where banks, transnational corporations and individual traders exchange one currency for another. I am talking about the spot Forex market. You can trade at huge leverage as much as 400 to 1, meaning that for every dollar that you have for trading you can trade 400. For example if you have $1,000 on your account you can trade as much as $400,000.
This is dangerous. Most experienced traders won't use such a high leverage. In the other hand, high leverage can be good if you learn how to use it in your favor. Anyway, that's enough for the basics. If you want to learn more about how this market emerged, its history and so, then read my other articles.
Now let's talk about the strategies and how some traders make money at Forex. Let's start by saying that what works for me may not necessary work for you. Trading currencies is risky. That's a fact. But ultimately I discovered a few strategies that could give novice traders a winning edge.
Trading Forex is not as easy as most people think. Today you may be earning a lot and tomorrow you are losing 40% of your starting capital. Novice traders often make the same mistakes over and over again. I will enumerate a few of them bellow.
1. Do not look for a holly grail of trading.
This is for people who are afraid to lose or are too greedy and want to get rich quick. Even when it seems so, The Forex Market is not the place to get rich quick. Yes, you can make a lot of money over time and yes you don't have to sell anything, nor create or advertise any products. Still you have to learn a whole lot about what makes this market tick and what moves the price of the currencies plus how to manage your money effectively so you don't lose your shirt.
Many novice traders spend a LOT of time searching a perfect strategy that will allow them to always win-win and never lose. They want to have guaranteed profits because they can't stand to lose and/or they want to make too much (millions) quick so they can retire fast and buy a mansion in a far distant beautiful tropical island. It doesn't happen.
Don't waist your time. A trading strategy that allows you to have guaranteed profits do not exist. Trading is very risky. That's why it is so profitable. Remember: "no risk, no reward." So, do not try to always win on every trade. It is simply not possible. There is no way to get rid of the fact of uncertainty. What I mean is that no matter how effective your trading strategy may be, sometimes it will fail and you have to be ready to face this fact.
By not trying to find a perfect strategy that turns you into a millionaire fast, you will just save a ton of your own time and efforts. It doesn't exist. If you find it, please don't tell me about it. First I won't believe you. Second I don't need it. You will find out bellow why I say that I won't need it.
2. Use technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
When I started trading I didn't believe in this. I wanted to find a strategy which consisted of money management alone (which I explain bellow). This is not good! Money management is important but you still need the other two. You define ("predict") where the market is heading to depending on how effective your technical and fundamental strategies are.
Mastering technical analysis is the ability to predict future price movements by analyzing past price data and graphical patterns. You get a graphic of certain currencies. Check the data that you observe and based on your knowledge of technical analysis you "predict" with certain degree of accuracy where the market is going.
Many brokers allow you to add technical indicators to the graphs while you are trading. You can try this on a demo account and see how well you are able to define the future price movement of the currencies you plan to trade. One of those brokers is www.oanda.com.
There are many technical indicators. I can't tell which one will be more effective for you. Every trader is different. This is something that you will have to discover by yourself. There is not a hidden secret or magic formula for trading Forex. It is what you do every minute when you are in front of the graphics and checking the news what really counts.
The secret is in your overall knowledge and your decisions. This comes with experience and practice. If you open an account with one of these online brokers you can trade on paper before you trade with real money, so you can learn and practice before you risk any capital.
Let me tell you about a few technical indicators that you can use. You can use the MACD (Moving average convergence divergence), the Bollinger Bands, Pivot Points, RSI, Stochastic, Fibonacci, EMA, Elliot Waves and many others. There are in fact many technical indicators but these are among the most widely known and used.
When you add technical indicators to the graphic the brokers software will automatically perform mathematical calculations to reveal interesting facts and patterns about the graphics that you can't readily see without said indicators. You can use the technical indicators to create your own technical systems.
These systems will never work 100% of the time, but if they work 70% — 80% it may be enough. That's because you can control your risks with money management techniques as I describe bellow.
To further increase your probability of winning and reduce your probability of losing on every trade you can use fundamental analysis. I think that most traders choose one or the other but many traders use both.
Fundamental analysis is to trade the news. What is going on with the countries's economies of the currencies that you are trading? What is the unemployment index? Did something suddenly happen that could drastically affect the price of the currencies?
Trading the news is another effective way to "predict" where the market is going. Many online brokers offer you a link with important financial news. For example www.oanda.com has this feature. You can also find financial news on the following websites:
a) www.bloomberg.com
b) www.businessweek.com
c) www.economist.com
d) money.cnn.com
e) markets.ft.com
f) www.reuters.com
g) www.fxstreet.com
3. Use money management strategies.
You need money management techniques. This is what makes you or breaks you. Put it this way, most traders invest far too much of their trading capital on every trade. It is as follows . . . "Expect to make too much and you will make too little, expect to make little and you will make a lot."
What does it mean? It means that if you try to make a fortune on every trade you will lose your shirt. If you expect to make a little on every trade and you compound your profits, you may make a lot of money over the long run.
The first rule of money management says that you should not risk more than 1% of the money that you have on your account. You control this risk with stop loss and limit orders. When you start trading this may seem as little profits specially if you start with little trading capital. In the other hand if you compound some or all of your profits you may increase your account exponentially over time.
The magic of compound interest is amazing! This is the way that most fortunes are created on the financial markets, little by little. If you gamble your money you may lose it fast.
Many traders do exactly the opposite. Imagine that you open an account with $5,000 and you enter a trade for $1,000. Let's say that the market moves against you and you lose those $1,000. Now you have $4,000 on your account. You think that the price for the currencies is too low, so it should recover. In fact you are pretty sure that it will come back.
Then you invest $1,500 to recover from the previous loss plus realize a $500 profit. The market moves again against you. It kept going in the same direction, something that you didn't expected. What happens? Now you have $2,500 on your account. That's 50% of your initial trading capital. It will be very hard for you to recover from that loss.
In the other hand, if you risk 1% of your money on every trade, you will have $4,900 on your account after that initial loss. It will be much easier for you to recover from those trades.
The second rule of money management is to expect always to receive more profits than the money that you risk to lose. This can be accomplished through limit and stop orders as well as trailing stops.
For example if you expect to make a 25 pips profits on every trade, then you put the stop order at 15 pips bellow or above your entry price. A better way to have a greater expectancy ratio is to use trailing stops as I describe above. A trailing stop allows you to cut the loses short and let your winners ride.
These are the basic techniques that a successful trader should use to generate consistent profits at the Forex Market. This is basic information, but I realize that many people out there don't even know what Forex is, so I didn't want to get into more complex strategies here. You will find information about complex and advanced Forex strategies on my website.
Moving The Forex Market With Trading And Intervention Techniques
Trading and intervention techniques can offer traders benefits When trading on the foreign currency exchange market, or the Forex. Traders look to intervention as a means of seeing where the Forex is heading, indicating that some currencies should be higher or lower depending on what is going on in that country.
Intervention of the Forex is not unusual. When there is a big tragedy or large debt in a country, the value of that nation's currency will drop. There was a time when the budget deficit of the United States caused the value of the dollar to decline very rapidly in relation to the Japanese yen. This caused the Japanese yen to rise very quickly. When this happens, brokers and Forex traders can forecast, or speculate that an intervention is likely. Intervention makes the value of a currency either rise or fall depending on how the government wants it to move, even if it is for the short term.
Experienced brokers and Forex traders understand when an intervention is likely, thus creating an opportunity for the trader to profit by acting quickly. Using the intervention technique as a means of trading on the Forex necessitates that a trader must be up to date on current events from around the world and must be able to act upon these events and trends very quickly. It can be very risky to trade on intervention trends. The potential is there for the trader to lose a large amount of capital in a very short amount of time.
It is necessary to understand economics from around the world In order to completely understand the foreign exchange market and the way currency moves. The Forex solely revolves around currency and its value in relation to each other. The value of the currency plays a major role in both domestic and global economics.
The intervention technique is also directly related to the value of the currency and to the central banks. Currency obtains the value by supply and demand and by the government, or the central bank. When a currency is subjected to being valued it is called floating. When a government sets the rates of the currency, it is called fixing. This means that a country's currency is compared against another major currency, usually the US dollar.
Intervention in the Forex usually happens during times of economic instability. As currencies are always traded in pairs, a large and significant movement of the rates in one direction or the other will directly impact the other currency. Any time a nation experiences instability due to inflation, speculation, disasters or growing national debt, the other country will feel the affects as well. The results of this are not always felt immediately, but over a long period of time. This time lapse allows the government or central banks to act accordingly and allows them time to intervene if necessary.
When looking at charts of the way the foreign currency market performs, interventions are usually noticeable on graphs and charts. The intervention may not be made public, but an experience trader can look at these graphs over a period of time and tell when a government has chosen to intervene with the currency rates.
Knowing when an intervention is going to occur is not easy and it is even more difficult for the untrained trader to know when an intervention is going to happen. For those who have experience trading on the Forex, predicting an intervention can be as easy as looking at key indicators. Typically, interventions occur when the same price levels occur as previous with interventions. This is not always the case as some central banks may choose not to intervene, but on the whole it is a good indicator. Another indicator of when the Forex might undergo intervention is the verbal clue. A government might talk about intervening, and yet the intervention may not happen for a long time. Other times, interventions will happen with no warning.
Trading on the Forex involves mking well informed decisions that will ultimatley benefit you. If you are inexperienced in trading on the foreign currency exchange look for a good broker who is backed by a well-known financial institution.
Intervention of the Forex is not unusual. When there is a big tragedy or large debt in a country, the value of that nation's currency will drop. There was a time when the budget deficit of the United States caused the value of the dollar to decline very rapidly in relation to the Japanese yen. This caused the Japanese yen to rise very quickly. When this happens, brokers and Forex traders can forecast, or speculate that an intervention is likely. Intervention makes the value of a currency either rise or fall depending on how the government wants it to move, even if it is for the short term.
Experienced brokers and Forex traders understand when an intervention is likely, thus creating an opportunity for the trader to profit by acting quickly. Using the intervention technique as a means of trading on the Forex necessitates that a trader must be up to date on current events from around the world and must be able to act upon these events and trends very quickly. It can be very risky to trade on intervention trends. The potential is there for the trader to lose a large amount of capital in a very short amount of time.
It is necessary to understand economics from around the world In order to completely understand the foreign exchange market and the way currency moves. The Forex solely revolves around currency and its value in relation to each other. The value of the currency plays a major role in both domestic and global economics.
The intervention technique is also directly related to the value of the currency and to the central banks. Currency obtains the value by supply and demand and by the government, or the central bank. When a currency is subjected to being valued it is called floating. When a government sets the rates of the currency, it is called fixing. This means that a country's currency is compared against another major currency, usually the US dollar.
Intervention in the Forex usually happens during times of economic instability. As currencies are always traded in pairs, a large and significant movement of the rates in one direction or the other will directly impact the other currency. Any time a nation experiences instability due to inflation, speculation, disasters or growing national debt, the other country will feel the affects as well. The results of this are not always felt immediately, but over a long period of time. This time lapse allows the government or central banks to act accordingly and allows them time to intervene if necessary.
When looking at charts of the way the foreign currency market performs, interventions are usually noticeable on graphs and charts. The intervention may not be made public, but an experience trader can look at these graphs over a period of time and tell when a government has chosen to intervene with the currency rates.
Knowing when an intervention is going to occur is not easy and it is even more difficult for the untrained trader to know when an intervention is going to happen. For those who have experience trading on the Forex, predicting an intervention can be as easy as looking at key indicators. Typically, interventions occur when the same price levels occur as previous with interventions. This is not always the case as some central banks may choose not to intervene, but on the whole it is a good indicator. Another indicator of when the Forex might undergo intervention is the verbal clue. A government might talk about intervening, and yet the intervention may not happen for a long time. Other times, interventions will happen with no warning.
Trading on the Forex involves mking well informed decisions that will ultimatley benefit you. If you are inexperienced in trading on the foreign currency exchange look for a good broker who is backed by a well-known financial institution.
Forex Forecasts — You Never Know What You Will Benefit From
Possible risks and profits to be made can always be predicted if traders would only have more accurate Forex forecast to base their trade and decisions upon. Forex forecasts are only one way of keeping up with the volatile Forex market. Success will depend the most in knowing what and who will affect the rate changes.
The Forex market has already been through a lot of ups and downs that even fortune tellers would have difficulty guessing what will be its next movement. Making a Forex forecast can be helpful but can also be too risky. Besides, doing it is not that easy also.
In Forex forecasts, nothing specific is given. The traders are not made to hope high and expect more. If you have seen or heard a Forex forecast, be sure to check on some projected rate fluctuations whenever and wherever possible so you would have an idea it the Forex forecast shows a likely possibility to be true or not.
Staying in touch and up-to-date with the latest news and happenings around the globe and information about the Forex currency can help traders determine when is the best time to buy, sell and stay away from a particular market. All these things are important in the performance of your trade. Take note of some Forex forecasts if only to serve as guide whenever you are in a situation that you find hard to make a decision upon.
How can one benefit from Forex forecasts?
There are some companies that are offering Forex forecast information as a subscription that traders can avail of. For those who do not have enough patience and browse for information in the internet, this Forex forecast information would be their alternative.
No one said that there is a 100% accuracy in these Forex forecasts. And no one told traders that they should also believe them 100%. If you want to have more degree of accuracy in the Forex forecast, you could always find one with the most accurate percentage rate.
You could look for something or someone that offers free information or a trail period for you to test the degree of their ability to give accurate forecast about the Forex market. There are also some sites that send out Forex forecast to emails that you may want to try out just so you will choice to choose from if you decide to avail the services of some of them.
Relying only on one Forex forecast is not the thing to do. You should at least have some more choices in the process of making an investment decision. Try to get more Forex forecast from sources that are rampant online and offline so you would not stick to just one.
The thing to remember is that your investments are your future and you have already worked too hard to just let it all down the drain. Do not put the future of your Forex trade into the hands of only person. Try to get several Forex forecast and choose the best one that you think has great ounces of accuracy up their sleeves.
Before putting the future of your investments into the hands of those offering Forex forecasts, make it a point to check out the latest that is happening in the Forex trading and see if the trend is likely to go with what the predictions are telling about.
If you think more about it, people doing Forex forecasts would not be out there giving bad forecasts because their reputation is the one at stake there. They surely would not want to ruin the image they have by giving false predictions about things that they know people will listen to, would they?
Like they say, traders should not believe all that is written in Forex forecasts. Some but not all. There are still decisions to be made that will be based upon the trader itself and no amount or accuracy of Forex forecasts can make that decision for them.
Just to be on the right side of things, always make sure and do your own research that will back up the Forex forecast you actually think is going to work. You never know what it will lead to...
The Forex market has already been through a lot of ups and downs that even fortune tellers would have difficulty guessing what will be its next movement. Making a Forex forecast can be helpful but can also be too risky. Besides, doing it is not that easy also.
In Forex forecasts, nothing specific is given. The traders are not made to hope high and expect more. If you have seen or heard a Forex forecast, be sure to check on some projected rate fluctuations whenever and wherever possible so you would have an idea it the Forex forecast shows a likely possibility to be true or not.
Staying in touch and up-to-date with the latest news and happenings around the globe and information about the Forex currency can help traders determine when is the best time to buy, sell and stay away from a particular market. All these things are important in the performance of your trade. Take note of some Forex forecasts if only to serve as guide whenever you are in a situation that you find hard to make a decision upon.
How can one benefit from Forex forecasts?
There are some companies that are offering Forex forecast information as a subscription that traders can avail of. For those who do not have enough patience and browse for information in the internet, this Forex forecast information would be their alternative.
No one said that there is a 100% accuracy in these Forex forecasts. And no one told traders that they should also believe them 100%. If you want to have more degree of accuracy in the Forex forecast, you could always find one with the most accurate percentage rate.
You could look for something or someone that offers free information or a trail period for you to test the degree of their ability to give accurate forecast about the Forex market. There are also some sites that send out Forex forecast to emails that you may want to try out just so you will choice to choose from if you decide to avail the services of some of them.
Relying only on one Forex forecast is not the thing to do. You should at least have some more choices in the process of making an investment decision. Try to get more Forex forecast from sources that are rampant online and offline so you would not stick to just one.
The thing to remember is that your investments are your future and you have already worked too hard to just let it all down the drain. Do not put the future of your Forex trade into the hands of only person. Try to get several Forex forecast and choose the best one that you think has great ounces of accuracy up their sleeves.
Before putting the future of your investments into the hands of those offering Forex forecasts, make it a point to check out the latest that is happening in the Forex trading and see if the trend is likely to go with what the predictions are telling about.
If you think more about it, people doing Forex forecasts would not be out there giving bad forecasts because their reputation is the one at stake there. They surely would not want to ruin the image they have by giving false predictions about things that they know people will listen to, would they?
Like they say, traders should not believe all that is written in Forex forecasts. Some but not all. There are still decisions to be made that will be based upon the trader itself and no amount or accuracy of Forex forecasts can make that decision for them.
Just to be on the right side of things, always make sure and do your own research that will back up the Forex forecast you actually think is going to work. You never know what it will lead to...
Mar 23, 2009
Do You Have A Back Up Plan?
I know a woman in her sixties. She worked for a company for a little more than a decade as an administration and office assistant for a staff of one hundred sales people, who loved her dearly. She always made sure all the faxes got to their desks; the stationery stock was full and each staff member had what he needed.
Beyond her job description, she was like a mother to all of them: making sure the toilets got cleaned, old food was removed from the fridge and decorating the entire floor which the department occupied. She worked hard and never complained. She was always smiling, friendly and polite.
She felt good about being a 'mother' to all the people who entered and left that department. She was comfortable with her position. No-one else could do the things she did. And she did them better than anyone else in the building.
One day, she went to work as usual. After doing her morning chores, she was invited to the office, where she was told her services were no longer needed. The company was undergoing certain cost-cutting measures in every department and unfortunately, her role would have to be sacrificed. She was then asked to leave the building as soon as possible. She was assured, however, that before having made the decision, every attempt had been made to find a position for her somewhere within the company.
She has financial obligations to fulfil and she still hasn't saved enough for her retirement. She still has credit to pay off and she was saving for a trip overseas, something she never got around to doing in her younger years. She wanted to save up to establish a book-selling business. Suddenly, she would have to re-evaluate her plans. Losing a job and nearing retirement age, she will have to relinquish some of the things she had dreamt for herself.
I am sure you have heard hundreds of similar stories like these. Just five months before writing this article, I had already read about companies cutting costs by laying off jobs. Their main reason is to remain competitive, so they would not have to raise the prices they charge to their customers. Companies are outsourcing jobs overseas because the labour costs in other countries are relatively cheap compared to the local currency and sometimes because of significant skills or technological advantages. Other businesses lessen staff when sales drop and they can no longer sustain to pay the same number of people they have on their payroll. No organisation — not even a big, established business — is immune from the need to become leaner in an ever-increasingly competitive market environment.
In the past, most people believed the companies or the governments — whom they work for — could guarantee them a job for life. Nowadays, I think more and more people are becoming increasingly aware that expecting to have a job-for-life is unrealistic. It is a dire predicament to be working everyday, taking care of someone else's business and realising that at the end of one's career, years of service do not guarantee one's well-being. Because of this, I believe that people are now looking to improve their chances of having enough funds to meet their needs and wants after retirement.
I think there is a dawning awareness that the ultimate responsibility for one's own well-being lies within each individual. People are beginning to understand that their boss or the company they work for does not have an obligation nor the ability to ensure that they are taken care of when they finish working for them.
According to an article written by John Roskam(*), based on a forthcoming Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) Backgrounder on self-employment and the self-reliant society, the trend to self-employment will speed up in coming decades. Five reasons explain this change:
1. Our societies will continue to develop knowledge-intensive and service industries.
2. Jobs of the future need more education; however, better educated workers might opt to work for themselves instead.
3. Older workers are more comfortable with being self-employed than the younger workers, which might indicate individuals would prefer to work for themselves as they grow older.
4. Individuals want more control and flexibility over their working arrangements and self-employment allows for this.
5. Individuals are more willing to assume responsibility for the decisions that affect their lives and their families.
In addition to this trend, more and more people are now seeking to gain greater control over their financial assets.
What we can all learn from this article is the idea that we do not have to rely on our employers to be there for us when we desperately need them to pay us our periodic paycheques at the end of our working days. There are alternatives and, while we still can, I believe we owe it to ourselves and our families to have a back-up plan and look at every single opportunity available. The question for you is this: Do you have a back-up plan?
Beyond her job description, she was like a mother to all of them: making sure the toilets got cleaned, old food was removed from the fridge and decorating the entire floor which the department occupied. She worked hard and never complained. She was always smiling, friendly and polite.
She felt good about being a 'mother' to all the people who entered and left that department. She was comfortable with her position. No-one else could do the things she did. And she did them better than anyone else in the building.
One day, she went to work as usual. After doing her morning chores, she was invited to the office, where she was told her services were no longer needed. The company was undergoing certain cost-cutting measures in every department and unfortunately, her role would have to be sacrificed. She was then asked to leave the building as soon as possible. She was assured, however, that before having made the decision, every attempt had been made to find a position for her somewhere within the company.
She has financial obligations to fulfil and she still hasn't saved enough for her retirement. She still has credit to pay off and she was saving for a trip overseas, something she never got around to doing in her younger years. She wanted to save up to establish a book-selling business. Suddenly, she would have to re-evaluate her plans. Losing a job and nearing retirement age, she will have to relinquish some of the things she had dreamt for herself.
I am sure you have heard hundreds of similar stories like these. Just five months before writing this article, I had already read about companies cutting costs by laying off jobs. Their main reason is to remain competitive, so they would not have to raise the prices they charge to their customers. Companies are outsourcing jobs overseas because the labour costs in other countries are relatively cheap compared to the local currency and sometimes because of significant skills or technological advantages. Other businesses lessen staff when sales drop and they can no longer sustain to pay the same number of people they have on their payroll. No organisation — not even a big, established business — is immune from the need to become leaner in an ever-increasingly competitive market environment.
In the past, most people believed the companies or the governments — whom they work for — could guarantee them a job for life. Nowadays, I think more and more people are becoming increasingly aware that expecting to have a job-for-life is unrealistic. It is a dire predicament to be working everyday, taking care of someone else's business and realising that at the end of one's career, years of service do not guarantee one's well-being. Because of this, I believe that people are now looking to improve their chances of having enough funds to meet their needs and wants after retirement.
I think there is a dawning awareness that the ultimate responsibility for one's own well-being lies within each individual. People are beginning to understand that their boss or the company they work for does not have an obligation nor the ability to ensure that they are taken care of when they finish working for them.
According to an article written by John Roskam(*), based on a forthcoming Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) Backgrounder on self-employment and the self-reliant society, the trend to self-employment will speed up in coming decades. Five reasons explain this change:
1. Our societies will continue to develop knowledge-intensive and service industries.
2. Jobs of the future need more education; however, better educated workers might opt to work for themselves instead.
3. Older workers are more comfortable with being self-employed than the younger workers, which might indicate individuals would prefer to work for themselves as they grow older.
4. Individuals want more control and flexibility over their working arrangements and self-employment allows for this.
5. Individuals are more willing to assume responsibility for the decisions that affect their lives and their families.
In addition to this trend, more and more people are now seeking to gain greater control over their financial assets.
What we can all learn from this article is the idea that we do not have to rely on our employers to be there for us when we desperately need them to pay us our periodic paycheques at the end of our working days. There are alternatives and, while we still can, I believe we owe it to ourselves and our families to have a back-up plan and look at every single opportunity available. The question for you is this: Do you have a back-up plan?
Why You Need To Develop Your Own Trading System
There are many trading systems and strategies out there. There are many free ones printed in trading articles, journals, books and on trading-related websites. You can buy them as software or you can subscribe to them periodically.
Novice traders say they do not have the time, the aptitude, the talent nor the brains to work out how to trade properly. They would rather purchase a program or subscribe to a trading system for hundreds — or in some cases — thousands of dollars. They say they do not have to do anything except be told what to buy, when to buy and how much of it you need to buy. Some ask me if this strategy or approach is advisable for trading the financial markets. To answer this question, I am then forced to consider the advantages and disadvantages of using such an approach to trading.
There are reasons why a trader would use a system or strategy that someone else developed and tested:
1. It is easy. A novice trader does not need to study how the market works and how he interacts with that market. He does not need to educate himself: he does not need to bother with books and seminars. He does not need to test the system, since the seller has already done that for him and reported promising hypothetical or actual results.
2. A novice trader hopes to get a trading system at a 'bargain' price: sometimes even for free.
Hazards of trading a system or strategy developed and tested by someone else are the following:
1. Faulty Systems
There are many faulty systems out there. They may be faulty because their assumptions and their mechanisms may no longer be true, accurate or valid. As a novice trader, how can you distinguish between the good systems and the bad systems if you don't know how trading systems are built?
2. Discipline and confidence
All systems have drawdown periods. Some good systems may not make money for six months or an entire year. Even if it was a good system, can you continue to follow it even if it gives you a loss after a loss after a loss? How can you follow it if you do not have confidence in it? How can you be confident if you do not know the ins and outs of the system and if you have not tested it yourself?
I do not believe that people would blindly follow a system even if they were told that it would bring them riches. I can give someone a trading system, I can supply him with exceptional hypothetical or actual results and still, he would not be able to follow it.
I remember giving my dad a fully-mechanical trading system I developed. I told him a few simple rules and I told him not to question them. All he had to do was to follow them. We both traded it for two months, I grew my small account by roughly 50% (it happened to be a good two months), but he was losing. He wondered why. I asked to see his trading records. When I looked at his trading records, I found that he kept disobeying the rules. When I asked him why he disobeyed them, he wanted to improve the results after it had a couple of losing trades. He was trying to improve the results. According to him, the system asked him to do what he thought was not right during certain market conditions, so he did not follow it. I found simple errors too, including opening trades at market price instead of waiting for buy and sell stop orders at support and resistance levels to get triggered. I also asked that he executes trades at the close, but oftentimes he traded two hours before or after the close at his discretion. There were many more rules he breached. He is a smart man: a former civil engineer and now a manager for a big organisation. Why could he not follow instructions? It is simple. He did not know the reasons behind the rules I had set and so he did not appreciate them. His money was on the line and after a series of losses, he lost faith in the system easier than I did because he did not develop and test it himself.
To overcome the hazards above, I see no way except for a trader to learn how to develop his own trading methodology. This is the only way a trader can know if a particular system or strategy is good or not.
Once a trader learns how to develop systems and strategies, he can then be better equipped to test them as well. By this point he might even find that he is better off using the system he created, because it becomes increasingly difficult to find another system more suited to his profit objectives while operating within his risk tolerance levels. It is likely that once he develops this level of competence, he will simply acquire other systems only to dissect them, grab the parts he likes and add them to his own system. To me, the irony is that for a trader to know which system to purchase, he must first learn how to create a system. And after knowing how to create a system, he will no longer have the need to buy one.
In conclusion then, I would have to say that if you are not inclined to learn how to develop your own trading methodology, then perhaps you should consider giving your money for someone else to invest. Give it to someone who is trading a system that he developed and tested himself because he is more likely to have the confidence and courage to follow his own set of rules.
Novice traders say they do not have the time, the aptitude, the talent nor the brains to work out how to trade properly. They would rather purchase a program or subscribe to a trading system for hundreds — or in some cases — thousands of dollars. They say they do not have to do anything except be told what to buy, when to buy and how much of it you need to buy. Some ask me if this strategy or approach is advisable for trading the financial markets. To answer this question, I am then forced to consider the advantages and disadvantages of using such an approach to trading.
There are reasons why a trader would use a system or strategy that someone else developed and tested:
1. It is easy. A novice trader does not need to study how the market works and how he interacts with that market. He does not need to educate himself: he does not need to bother with books and seminars. He does not need to test the system, since the seller has already done that for him and reported promising hypothetical or actual results.
2. A novice trader hopes to get a trading system at a 'bargain' price: sometimes even for free.
Hazards of trading a system or strategy developed and tested by someone else are the following:
1. Faulty Systems
There are many faulty systems out there. They may be faulty because their assumptions and their mechanisms may no longer be true, accurate or valid. As a novice trader, how can you distinguish between the good systems and the bad systems if you don't know how trading systems are built?
2. Discipline and confidence
All systems have drawdown periods. Some good systems may not make money for six months or an entire year. Even if it was a good system, can you continue to follow it even if it gives you a loss after a loss after a loss? How can you follow it if you do not have confidence in it? How can you be confident if you do not know the ins and outs of the system and if you have not tested it yourself?
I do not believe that people would blindly follow a system even if they were told that it would bring them riches. I can give someone a trading system, I can supply him with exceptional hypothetical or actual results and still, he would not be able to follow it.
I remember giving my dad a fully-mechanical trading system I developed. I told him a few simple rules and I told him not to question them. All he had to do was to follow them. We both traded it for two months, I grew my small account by roughly 50% (it happened to be a good two months), but he was losing. He wondered why. I asked to see his trading records. When I looked at his trading records, I found that he kept disobeying the rules. When I asked him why he disobeyed them, he wanted to improve the results after it had a couple of losing trades. He was trying to improve the results. According to him, the system asked him to do what he thought was not right during certain market conditions, so he did not follow it. I found simple errors too, including opening trades at market price instead of waiting for buy and sell stop orders at support and resistance levels to get triggered. I also asked that he executes trades at the close, but oftentimes he traded two hours before or after the close at his discretion. There were many more rules he breached. He is a smart man: a former civil engineer and now a manager for a big organisation. Why could he not follow instructions? It is simple. He did not know the reasons behind the rules I had set and so he did not appreciate them. His money was on the line and after a series of losses, he lost faith in the system easier than I did because he did not develop and test it himself.
To overcome the hazards above, I see no way except for a trader to learn how to develop his own trading methodology. This is the only way a trader can know if a particular system or strategy is good or not.
Once a trader learns how to develop systems and strategies, he can then be better equipped to test them as well. By this point he might even find that he is better off using the system he created, because it becomes increasingly difficult to find another system more suited to his profit objectives while operating within his risk tolerance levels. It is likely that once he develops this level of competence, he will simply acquire other systems only to dissect them, grab the parts he likes and add them to his own system. To me, the irony is that for a trader to know which system to purchase, he must first learn how to create a system. And after knowing how to create a system, he will no longer have the need to buy one.
In conclusion then, I would have to say that if you are not inclined to learn how to develop your own trading methodology, then perhaps you should consider giving your money for someone else to invest. Give it to someone who is trading a system that he developed and tested himself because he is more likely to have the confidence and courage to follow his own set of rules.
Forex Trading Systems: Mechanical Vs. Discretionary Systems
There are basically two types of Forex trading systems, mechanical and discretionary systems. The trading signals that come out of mechanical systems are mainly based off technical analysis applied in a systematic way. On the other hand, discretionary systems use experience, intuition or judgment on entries and exits. But which one produces better results? Or more importantly, which one fits better your trading style? These are the answers we will try to answer on this article.
We will first analyze the pros and cons about each system approach.
Mechanical systems
Advantages
This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently.
It has very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isn't.
Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.
Disadvantages
Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data.
The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same.
A system that worked successfully the past year doesn't necessary mean it will work this year.
Discretionary systems
Advantages
Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions.
Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.
Disadvantages
They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made.
It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. At early stages this can be dangerous.
Now, which approach is better for Forex traders? The one that fits better your personality. For instance, if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment won't play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.
If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.
On the other hand, if you are a disciplined trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade. But the market suddenly starts trending up pretty strongly, then you could move your target to say 100 pips.
Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds his/her setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get in the market, and so on.
I am a discretionary trader. The main reason I chose a discretionary system is that my trades are based on price behavior, and as you already know, the price behaves similar to the past, but it is never identical, therefore the outcome of every trade is unknown. However, I do have rigid rules on my system, certain conditions have to be met before I even think in getting in a trade. This keeps me out of trouble, once my setup is present and in accordance with the rules I have set, then I closely watch the price behavior and finally decide whether it is a good opportunity or not.
Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:
1. You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system.
2. You also need to have some rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them.
3. Take your time to build the perfect system for you. It's not easy and requires time and hard work, but at the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results.
4. Before going live, try it on a demo account or even on a small account (I will go for the second option, since psychological barriers will be present.)
We will first analyze the pros and cons about each system approach.
Mechanical systems
Advantages
This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently.
It has very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isn't.
Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.
Disadvantages
Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data.
The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same.
A system that worked successfully the past year doesn't necessary mean it will work this year.
Discretionary systems
Advantages
Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions.
Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.
Disadvantages
They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made.
It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. At early stages this can be dangerous.
Now, which approach is better for Forex traders? The one that fits better your personality. For instance, if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment won't play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.
If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.
On the other hand, if you are a disciplined trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade. But the market suddenly starts trending up pretty strongly, then you could move your target to say 100 pips.
Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds his/her setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get in the market, and so on.
I am a discretionary trader. The main reason I chose a discretionary system is that my trades are based on price behavior, and as you already know, the price behaves similar to the past, but it is never identical, therefore the outcome of every trade is unknown. However, I do have rigid rules on my system, certain conditions have to be met before I even think in getting in a trade. This keeps me out of trouble, once my setup is present and in accordance with the rules I have set, then I closely watch the price behavior and finally decide whether it is a good opportunity or not.
Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:
1. You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system.
2. You also need to have some rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them.
3. Take your time to build the perfect system for you. It's not easy and requires time and hard work, but at the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results.
4. Before going live, try it on a demo account or even on a small account (I will go for the second option, since psychological barriers will be present.)
Trying Forex Trading with the Best Strategy and Approach
With the day things are today, more people are getting interested in investing their money to make them grow faster. The problem is, not too many people are willing to take the risk of investing it because of the risks, so some of them just let their money rut in banks. Not that there's anything wrong with banks, it's just that they have low rates and the money takes a long time to grow. If you want real money, you have to have the guts to risk it. Making money needs money; risks are always involved if you want to have money fast and big.
One of the largest arenas wherein you can invest your savings is the Forex. Forex trading has been around for decades already and is regarded as the largest financial forum in the whole world with an estimated 3.1 trillion dollars of volume everyday. The Forex (Foreign Exchange) trading is open 24 hours and never sleeps. Transactions are done all over the world via telephones and computers, money exchanges hand in the number of millions in just mere seconds. The Forex Trading is composed of thousands of banks and individual Forex trading companies that monitors development all over the world, developments that may influence the value of their currency. Forex trading deals with the exchange of currencies from different countries. The idea is to determine the rise and fall of the value of a certain currency and trade when it is deemed advisable.
For small Forex trading transactions, managed accounts are the ideal, they are for the cautious because they have the least risky participation. Here you entrust your investments along with others to a reliable, honest and ethical seasoned Forex brokers. These Forex brokers use their extensive knowledge and lengthy experience and use their strategy to make your money grow, for a fee of course.
With the rise of the internet, Forex trading can be done in a click of the mouse. Money travels through space and wires all the time. The computers have done a big help in the growth of Forex trading, transactions can now be done anytime anywhere. Since somebody is up at a given time everyday anywhere in the world, you will never lose someone to trade with.
There are two basic and fundamental ways to analyze and evaluate foreign exchange trading. There is the technical analysis and the fundamental analysis. There is a huge difference between the two. In Fundamental analysis, Forex analyzers and brokers watch out for causes to market fluctuation. These causes may include the political condition of the country, their laws and legislations, financial policies, their growth rate and other factors as well. Technical analysis of Forex trading includes graphs, charts and other method of measuring past data to see the indication of the rise and fall of currencies. They get all the information they need and use them to calculate and forecast the possible direction of a certain currency.
There are lots to learn about Forex trading; even the seasoned broker learns something new everyday. Forex trading has huge returns in an instant if you catch the right moment and transaction. But always remember there is till the risk, Forex trading can be quite a gamble, especially if your forecast is wrong. Before investing your money in any firm, try to investigate about its record and history in Forex trading.
One of the largest arenas wherein you can invest your savings is the Forex. Forex trading has been around for decades already and is regarded as the largest financial forum in the whole world with an estimated 3.1 trillion dollars of volume everyday. The Forex (Foreign Exchange) trading is open 24 hours and never sleeps. Transactions are done all over the world via telephones and computers, money exchanges hand in the number of millions in just mere seconds. The Forex Trading is composed of thousands of banks and individual Forex trading companies that monitors development all over the world, developments that may influence the value of their currency. Forex trading deals with the exchange of currencies from different countries. The idea is to determine the rise and fall of the value of a certain currency and trade when it is deemed advisable.
For small Forex trading transactions, managed accounts are the ideal, they are for the cautious because they have the least risky participation. Here you entrust your investments along with others to a reliable, honest and ethical seasoned Forex brokers. These Forex brokers use their extensive knowledge and lengthy experience and use their strategy to make your money grow, for a fee of course.
With the rise of the internet, Forex trading can be done in a click of the mouse. Money travels through space and wires all the time. The computers have done a big help in the growth of Forex trading, transactions can now be done anytime anywhere. Since somebody is up at a given time everyday anywhere in the world, you will never lose someone to trade with.
There are two basic and fundamental ways to analyze and evaluate foreign exchange trading. There is the technical analysis and the fundamental analysis. There is a huge difference between the two. In Fundamental analysis, Forex analyzers and brokers watch out for causes to market fluctuation. These causes may include the political condition of the country, their laws and legislations, financial policies, their growth rate and other factors as well. Technical analysis of Forex trading includes graphs, charts and other method of measuring past data to see the indication of the rise and fall of currencies. They get all the information they need and use them to calculate and forecast the possible direction of a certain currency.
There are lots to learn about Forex trading; even the seasoned broker learns something new everyday. Forex trading has huge returns in an instant if you catch the right moment and transaction. But always remember there is till the risk, Forex trading can be quite a gamble, especially if your forecast is wrong. Before investing your money in any firm, try to investigate about its record and history in Forex trading.
Your Guide to Learning a Forex Trading System
There are a great number of people in America that are interested in investing in order to make a tidy profit. There are many ways to invest and many ways to make profits by investing. One method that has been gaining in popularity is that of the Forex trading system. If you are unsure of what this is, let me explain. Forex stands for foreign exchange. A Forex trading system is defined as the simultaneous exchange of one countries currency for another countries currency. If you would like more information, please let this be your guide to learning a Forex trading system.
The Forex trading system involves trading some of the world's most major currencies. These are: the dollar, yen, British pound, Swiss franc, and the Euro. The way the exchange rates of these types of currencies change is based on economic growth. An example: Sometimes the Dollar is worth more than the British pound because the United States was in a period of economic growth while Britain was on the decline. This can be because the unemployment rate was declining in the United States, while on the rise in Britain. Another example: the export rate is up in Asia so the yen is worth more than the Swiss franc where the export rate is down. Economic growth changes daily, so the value of these currencies changes daily. You need to learn to watch for these changes in order to make any money with the Forex trading system.
The Forex Trading system is much larger than that of all U.S. stock markets combined. In fact, the Forex Trading system makes about 1.9 trillion dollars each year. This is 30 times larger than the U.S. stock markets. Also, Forex trading is done throughout the entire world, so it is available 24 hours a day, unlike the U.S. stock markets.
You can learn the Forex trading system for free online at various websites. Many websites offer a free demo account and free Forex trading System training. This way you can practice everything you learn for free, without investing or losing any real money. Then when you get a feel for the Forex trading system, many websites offer a free 30 day trial or free trades to new investors. It is best to utilize some of this free training and the free demo accounts before you start investing your own money.
Now that you understand the Forex trading system a little better, you may wish to get out there and start investing. There is a lot of money to be made, or lost. Be careful and make sure you get the proper training first. With the right frame of mind, you may be able to make some healthy sums of cash through the Forex trading system!
The Forex trading system involves trading some of the world's most major currencies. These are: the dollar, yen, British pound, Swiss franc, and the Euro. The way the exchange rates of these types of currencies change is based on economic growth. An example: Sometimes the Dollar is worth more than the British pound because the United States was in a period of economic growth while Britain was on the decline. This can be because the unemployment rate was declining in the United States, while on the rise in Britain. Another example: the export rate is up in Asia so the yen is worth more than the Swiss franc where the export rate is down. Economic growth changes daily, so the value of these currencies changes daily. You need to learn to watch for these changes in order to make any money with the Forex trading system.
The Forex Trading system is much larger than that of all U.S. stock markets combined. In fact, the Forex Trading system makes about 1.9 trillion dollars each year. This is 30 times larger than the U.S. stock markets. Also, Forex trading is done throughout the entire world, so it is available 24 hours a day, unlike the U.S. stock markets.
You can learn the Forex trading system for free online at various websites. Many websites offer a free demo account and free Forex trading System training. This way you can practice everything you learn for free, without investing or losing any real money. Then when you get a feel for the Forex trading system, many websites offer a free 30 day trial or free trades to new investors. It is best to utilize some of this free training and the free demo accounts before you start investing your own money.
Now that you understand the Forex trading system a little better, you may wish to get out there and start investing. There is a lot of money to be made, or lost. Be careful and make sure you get the proper training first. With the right frame of mind, you may be able to make some healthy sums of cash through the Forex trading system!
Mar 22, 2009
Choosing A Forex Strategy
Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are the two basic areas of strategy in the FOREX market which is the exact same as in the equity markets. However, technical analysis is by far the most common strategy that is used by individual FOREX traders. Here is a brief overview of both forms of analysis and how they directly apply to forex trading:
Fundamental Analysis
If you think it's hard enough to value one company, you should try valuing a whole country instead. Fundamental analysis in the forex market is often an extremely difficult one, and it's usually used only as a means to predict long-term trends. However it is important to mention that some traders do trade short term strictly on news releases. There are a lot of different fundamental indicators of the currency values released at many different times. Here are a few of them to get you started:
* Non-farm Payrolls
* Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
* Consumer Price Index (CPI)
* Retail Sales
* Durable Goods
You need to know that these reports are not the only fundamental factors that you have to watch. There are also quite a variety of meetings where you can get some quotes and commentary that can affect markets just as much as any report. These meetings are often brought out to discuss any interest rates, inflation, and other issues that have the ability to affect currency values.
Even changes in how things are worded when addressing certain issues such as the Federal Reserve chairman's comments on interest rates; can cause a volatile market. Two important meetings that you have to watch out for are the Federal Open Market Committee and Humphrey Hawkins Hearings.
Just by reading the reports and examining the commentary, it can help FOREX fundamental analysts to get a better understanding of any and all long-term market trends and also to allow short-term traders to be able to profit from extraordinary happenings. If you do decide to follow a fundamental strategy, you will want to be sure to keep an economic calendar handy at all times so you know when these reports are released. Your broker may also be able to provide you with real-time access to this kind of information.
Technical Analysis
Just like their counterparts in the equity markets, technical analysts of the FOREX trading market analyze price trends. The only real difference between technical analysis in FOREX and technical analysis in equities is the time frame that is involved in that FOREX markets are open 24 hours a day.
Because of this, some forms of technical analysis that factor in time have to be modified so that they can work with the 24 hour FOREX market. Some of the most common forms of technical analysis used in FOREX are:
* The Elliott Waves
* Fibonacci studies
* Parabolic SAR
* Pivot points
A lot of technical analysts have a tendency to combine technical studies to make more accurate predictions on your behalf. (The most common method for them is combining the Fibonacci studies with Elliott Waves.) Others prefer to create trading systems in an effort to repeatedly locate similar buying and selling conditions.
Choosing Your Strategy
Most successful traders will develop a strategy and perfect it over a specific period of time. Some people will focus on one particular study or calculation, while still some others use broad spectrum analysis as a means of determining their trades. Most experts would likely suggest that you try using a combination of both fundamental and technical analysis, with which you can make long-term projections and also determine entry and exit points. Of course, in the end, it is the individual trader who has to decide what works best for him.
When you are ready to get started in the FOREX market, you should open a demo account and paper trade so that you can practice until you can make a consistent profit. Many people who fail have a tendency to jump into the FOREX market and quickly lose a lot of money because of a lack of experience. It is important to take your time and learn to trade properly before you start committing capital.
You also need to be ale to trade without emotion. You can't keep track of all stop-loss points if you don't have the ability to execute them on time. You must always set your stop-loss and take-profit points to execute automatically, and don't change them unless you absolutely have to. Make your decisions and stick to them. Otherwise you will drive yourself and your brokers crazy.
You should also realize that you need to follow the trends. If you go against the trend, you are just messing with your money because the FOREX market tends to trend more often than anything else and you will have a higher chance of success in trading with the trend.
The FOREX market is the largest market in the world, and every day people are becoming increasingly interested in it. But before you begin trading, make sure your broker meets certain criteria, and take the time to find a trading strategy that works for you.
Fundamental Analysis
If you think it's hard enough to value one company, you should try valuing a whole country instead. Fundamental analysis in the forex market is often an extremely difficult one, and it's usually used only as a means to predict long-term trends. However it is important to mention that some traders do trade short term strictly on news releases. There are a lot of different fundamental indicators of the currency values released at many different times. Here are a few of them to get you started:
* Non-farm Payrolls
* Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
* Consumer Price Index (CPI)
* Retail Sales
* Durable Goods
You need to know that these reports are not the only fundamental factors that you have to watch. There are also quite a variety of meetings where you can get some quotes and commentary that can affect markets just as much as any report. These meetings are often brought out to discuss any interest rates, inflation, and other issues that have the ability to affect currency values.
Even changes in how things are worded when addressing certain issues such as the Federal Reserve chairman's comments on interest rates; can cause a volatile market. Two important meetings that you have to watch out for are the Federal Open Market Committee and Humphrey Hawkins Hearings.
Just by reading the reports and examining the commentary, it can help FOREX fundamental analysts to get a better understanding of any and all long-term market trends and also to allow short-term traders to be able to profit from extraordinary happenings. If you do decide to follow a fundamental strategy, you will want to be sure to keep an economic calendar handy at all times so you know when these reports are released. Your broker may also be able to provide you with real-time access to this kind of information.
Technical Analysis
Just like their counterparts in the equity markets, technical analysts of the FOREX trading market analyze price trends. The only real difference between technical analysis in FOREX and technical analysis in equities is the time frame that is involved in that FOREX markets are open 24 hours a day.
Because of this, some forms of technical analysis that factor in time have to be modified so that they can work with the 24 hour FOREX market. Some of the most common forms of technical analysis used in FOREX are:
* The Elliott Waves
* Fibonacci studies
* Parabolic SAR
* Pivot points
A lot of technical analysts have a tendency to combine technical studies to make more accurate predictions on your behalf. (The most common method for them is combining the Fibonacci studies with Elliott Waves.) Others prefer to create trading systems in an effort to repeatedly locate similar buying and selling conditions.
Choosing Your Strategy
Most successful traders will develop a strategy and perfect it over a specific period of time. Some people will focus on one particular study or calculation, while still some others use broad spectrum analysis as a means of determining their trades. Most experts would likely suggest that you try using a combination of both fundamental and technical analysis, with which you can make long-term projections and also determine entry and exit points. Of course, in the end, it is the individual trader who has to decide what works best for him.
When you are ready to get started in the FOREX market, you should open a demo account and paper trade so that you can practice until you can make a consistent profit. Many people who fail have a tendency to jump into the FOREX market and quickly lose a lot of money because of a lack of experience. It is important to take your time and learn to trade properly before you start committing capital.
You also need to be ale to trade without emotion. You can't keep track of all stop-loss points if you don't have the ability to execute them on time. You must always set your stop-loss and take-profit points to execute automatically, and don't change them unless you absolutely have to. Make your decisions and stick to them. Otherwise you will drive yourself and your brokers crazy.
You should also realize that you need to follow the trends. If you go against the trend, you are just messing with your money because the FOREX market tends to trend more often than anything else and you will have a higher chance of success in trading with the trend.
The FOREX market is the largest market in the world, and every day people are becoming increasingly interested in it. But before you begin trading, make sure your broker meets certain criteria, and take the time to find a trading strategy that works for you.
FOREX Trading Strategies
The world of trading and investment can be as frustrating as it can be rewarding! And Forex (Foreign Exchange) is no exception — often described as risky, profitable and complicated.
Forex is the largest trading market in the world.
Forex is the worldwide market for buying and selling currencies. These markets were developed to cater for the supply and demand of different currencies by governments, companies and individuals — for international trade and assisting importers and exporters.
Therefore those who trade in this market include consumers, businesses, investors, speculators and the banking industry.
Different countries use different currencies — which vary in their values against each other. Forex trading invovles the buying and selling of two currencies — trading pairs — you are selling one and buying another eg you may use the US dollar to purchase British pounds — if the supply of the pound lessens — it will cost more dollars to buy pounds — the Forex trader hopes to sell their pounds at a higher price than the purchase price.
A speculator in Forex is someone who accepts the possibility of adverse exchange-rate movements in the hope of making a profit from favourable movements in currency.
As a speculator you should always start trading with a small amount and have a trading system — which tells you when to get in and out of the market. It is a favourite option for currency traders as you can trade the Forex market 24 hours per day and the transaction costs are minimal.
This market — because of its sheer size — is hard to be manipulated — which stocks can be — it is more likely to be influenced by global news or events. Hence, the opportunity for 'insider trading' is eliminated.
However — beware -Forex brokers estimate that 90% of traders lose their money; 5% break even and only 5% achieve profitable results!
Forex is the largest trading market in the world.
Forex is the worldwide market for buying and selling currencies. These markets were developed to cater for the supply and demand of different currencies by governments, companies and individuals — for international trade and assisting importers and exporters.
Therefore those who trade in this market include consumers, businesses, investors, speculators and the banking industry.
Different countries use different currencies — which vary in their values against each other. Forex trading invovles the buying and selling of two currencies — trading pairs — you are selling one and buying another eg you may use the US dollar to purchase British pounds — if the supply of the pound lessens — it will cost more dollars to buy pounds — the Forex trader hopes to sell their pounds at a higher price than the purchase price.
A speculator in Forex is someone who accepts the possibility of adverse exchange-rate movements in the hope of making a profit from favourable movements in currency.
As a speculator you should always start trading with a small amount and have a trading system — which tells you when to get in and out of the market. It is a favourite option for currency traders as you can trade the Forex market 24 hours per day and the transaction costs are minimal.
This market — because of its sheer size — is hard to be manipulated — which stocks can be — it is more likely to be influenced by global news or events. Hence, the opportunity for 'insider trading' is eliminated.
However — beware -Forex brokers estimate that 90% of traders lose their money; 5% break even and only 5% achieve profitable results!
How To Loose Everything — The Worst Forex Trading Strategy Ever That You Might Be Using
You may be wondering, `Why would David Jenyns write about the worst Forex trading strategy around?`
There are a couple of reasons:
First, to warn you about the worst Forex trading strategy, because you really don`t want to end up using this system.
Second, because once you know the worst possible Forex trading strategy, the one that is designed to maximize your losses over the long run, then you can reverse it to craft a strategy which does the exact opposite.
With what you learn from the worst Forex trading strategy, you will be able to create a system that will produce some tremendous long-term gains. The worst Forex trading strategy I`m referring to, which is simply the worst Forex trading strategy I have ever encountered, is known as averaging down. This horrifying Forex trading strategy is the process of buying more shares that you had previously acquired, as the price drops.
Traders often purchase shares this way in an effort to reduce their initial entry price.
Only bad investors average down by buying shares of a sinking assests to decrease their overall average price per share. This Forex trading strategy is hardly ever effective, and is often like throwing good money after bad. It also magnifies a trader`s loss if the share keeps dropping. Remember, just because a share is cheap now that doesn`t mean it`s not going to get any cheaper. However, let`s examine how this devastating Forex trading strategy works. Say you bought one thousand shares at $40.
The novice investor may not have a stop loss in place, and the share price falls to $30 dollars. Here comes the stupidity of this Forex trading strategy — to average down the novice trader might by another thousand shares at $30 to lower the average cost per share that he`d already purchased. So, his average cost per share would now be $35.
Unfortunately, the share price may fall even further, and the novice trader will again buy more shares to reduce the average cost per share. They end up buying more and more into a share that`s losing their money.
Now, imagine this Forex trading strategy being applied to a portfolio of assets. In the end, all the capital will automatically be allocated to the worse performing assets in the portfolio while the best performing assets are sold off. The result is, at best, a disastrous underperformance versus the market.
If a trader uses an averaging down system and uses margins, their losses will be magnified even further. The biggest problem with this Forex trading strategy is that a trader`s gains are cut short, and the losers are left to run. My advice is — never average down. The process of buying a share, watching it fall, and then throwing more money at it in the hopes that you`ll either get back to break even or make a bigger killing is one of the most misguided pieces of advice on Wall Street. Never be faced with a situation where you`ll ask yourself, Should I risk even more than I originally intended in a desperate attempt to lower my cost and save my butt?`
Instead, design a simple, robust system with good money management rules. I can practically guarantee the results will be better than averaging down.
There are a couple of reasons:
First, to warn you about the worst Forex trading strategy, because you really don`t want to end up using this system.
Second, because once you know the worst possible Forex trading strategy, the one that is designed to maximize your losses over the long run, then you can reverse it to craft a strategy which does the exact opposite.
With what you learn from the worst Forex trading strategy, you will be able to create a system that will produce some tremendous long-term gains. The worst Forex trading strategy I`m referring to, which is simply the worst Forex trading strategy I have ever encountered, is known as averaging down. This horrifying Forex trading strategy is the process of buying more shares that you had previously acquired, as the price drops.
Traders often purchase shares this way in an effort to reduce their initial entry price.
Only bad investors average down by buying shares of a sinking assests to decrease their overall average price per share. This Forex trading strategy is hardly ever effective, and is often like throwing good money after bad. It also magnifies a trader`s loss if the share keeps dropping. Remember, just because a share is cheap now that doesn`t mean it`s not going to get any cheaper. However, let`s examine how this devastating Forex trading strategy works. Say you bought one thousand shares at $40.
The novice investor may not have a stop loss in place, and the share price falls to $30 dollars. Here comes the stupidity of this Forex trading strategy — to average down the novice trader might by another thousand shares at $30 to lower the average cost per share that he`d already purchased. So, his average cost per share would now be $35.
Unfortunately, the share price may fall even further, and the novice trader will again buy more shares to reduce the average cost per share. They end up buying more and more into a share that`s losing their money.
Now, imagine this Forex trading strategy being applied to a portfolio of assets. In the end, all the capital will automatically be allocated to the worse performing assets in the portfolio while the best performing assets are sold off. The result is, at best, a disastrous underperformance versus the market.
If a trader uses an averaging down system and uses margins, their losses will be magnified even further. The biggest problem with this Forex trading strategy is that a trader`s gains are cut short, and the losers are left to run. My advice is — never average down. The process of buying a share, watching it fall, and then throwing more money at it in the hopes that you`ll either get back to break even or make a bigger killing is one of the most misguided pieces of advice on Wall Street. Never be faced with a situation where you`ll ask yourself, Should I risk even more than I originally intended in a desperate attempt to lower my cost and save my butt?`
Instead, design a simple, robust system with good money management rules. I can practically guarantee the results will be better than averaging down.
Forex Trading: The Perfect Forex Trading System
Trading the Forex market has became very popular in the last few years. But how difficult is it to achieve success in the Forex trading arena? Or let me rephrase this question, how many traders achieve consistent profitable results trading the Forex market? Unfortunately very few, only 5% of traders achieve this goal. One of the main reasons of this is because Forex traders focus in the wrong information to make their trading decisions and totally forget about the most important factor: Price behavior.
Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators (a moving average (MA) crossover, overbought/oversold conditions in an oscillator, etc.) But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.
There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as "the MA crossover made the price go up," but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I'm trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.
Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn't want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.
Don't get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.
So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.
Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.
Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.
Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators (a moving average (MA) crossover, overbought/oversold conditions in an oscillator, etc.) But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.
There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as "the MA crossover made the price go up," but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I'm trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.
Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn't want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.
Don't get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.
So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.
Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.
Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.
A Sneaky Way to Steal Someone Else's Forex Trading System
Anyone who is serious about trading needs to have a Forex Trading System that is tailored to them, but there is no reason to start constructing your Forex trading system from scratch.
Why try and reinvent the wheel when you can benefit from other traders years of experience and borrow your trading system's ideas and concepts?
It's easy to do, and there are some pretty good Forex trading systems out there for you to work with. Some of them are free and some are very expensive, but the price tags don't always reflect the actual value of the Forex trading systems. But, many of these systems won't work for you, and I am not talking about out-right dishonesty here, which can be a big problem when trading. What I am talking about is your ability to effectively trade with the system that you may be considering using or buying.
You need to use a system that matches your life style and personality. If you have a day job (not trading), a Forex Trading System that requires you to stare at a screen all day wouldn't be appropriate. You would be distracted at work and miss the opportunities to make money, or even worse, you will not close a trade effectively and could lose money.
Some Forex trading systems have a potential to lose 20, 30 or 40% of your money before they are profitable. Can you handle a system that can drop your trading capital to half before making money? Or, are you prepared to have a string of 8 to 10 loses in a row before you have a winning trade? Some of the best traders in the world lose money on more than 50% of their trades. These are all important points to consider when you are creating your Forex Trading System. Choose aspects of the different systems that are out there that fit your trading style best, and then build your Forex trading system.
An excellent trading method, which was made famous by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt and is sometimes referred to as Turtle Trading, is one of the best Forex trading systems that I know of. They get returns in excess of 20 to 100% per year using this system. But, could most traders trade their system? Not a chance! Dennis and Eckhardt also loose on over 60% of their trades.
Once you know what sort of Forex Trading System will work best for you, look at the components that make it work. Face it; if you are a new, or even a fairly serious, trader how likely are you to come up with a totally new concept? There are some very smart and wealthy traders out there. Why not use their ideas. Consider Dennis and Eckhardt's turtle trading, their system is based on a "breakout" method. I know most traders could not trade using their exact method, but they could take parts of it, such as the breakouts, to confirm a trend.
You can also use other Forex trading systems to give you an outline of what parts a system has to have for it to make money. All great Forex trading systems have these three basics:
1. Entry Rules,
2. Money Management Rules and
3. Exit Rules.
Study and learn from the Forex trading systems out there, borrow their concepts, and steal their ideas. It will put you on the track to the system that will make you a successful trader.
Why try and reinvent the wheel when you can benefit from other traders years of experience and borrow your trading system's ideas and concepts?
It's easy to do, and there are some pretty good Forex trading systems out there for you to work with. Some of them are free and some are very expensive, but the price tags don't always reflect the actual value of the Forex trading systems. But, many of these systems won't work for you, and I am not talking about out-right dishonesty here, which can be a big problem when trading. What I am talking about is your ability to effectively trade with the system that you may be considering using or buying.
You need to use a system that matches your life style and personality. If you have a day job (not trading), a Forex Trading System that requires you to stare at a screen all day wouldn't be appropriate. You would be distracted at work and miss the opportunities to make money, or even worse, you will not close a trade effectively and could lose money.
Some Forex trading systems have a potential to lose 20, 30 or 40% of your money before they are profitable. Can you handle a system that can drop your trading capital to half before making money? Or, are you prepared to have a string of 8 to 10 loses in a row before you have a winning trade? Some of the best traders in the world lose money on more than 50% of their trades. These are all important points to consider when you are creating your Forex Trading System. Choose aspects of the different systems that are out there that fit your trading style best, and then build your Forex trading system.
An excellent trading method, which was made famous by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt and is sometimes referred to as Turtle Trading, is one of the best Forex trading systems that I know of. They get returns in excess of 20 to 100% per year using this system. But, could most traders trade their system? Not a chance! Dennis and Eckhardt also loose on over 60% of their trades.
Once you know what sort of Forex Trading System will work best for you, look at the components that make it work. Face it; if you are a new, or even a fairly serious, trader how likely are you to come up with a totally new concept? There are some very smart and wealthy traders out there. Why not use their ideas. Consider Dennis and Eckhardt's turtle trading, their system is based on a "breakout" method. I know most traders could not trade using their exact method, but they could take parts of it, such as the breakouts, to confirm a trend.
You can also use other Forex trading systems to give you an outline of what parts a system has to have for it to make money. All great Forex trading systems have these three basics:
1. Entry Rules,
2. Money Management Rules and
3. Exit Rules.
Study and learn from the Forex trading systems out there, borrow their concepts, and steal their ideas. It will put you on the track to the system that will make you a successful trader.
Mar 21, 2009
Making Forex Day Trading Successful
If you're serious about Forex day trading, where open positions are usually only held for one day, then you'll need to set aside a chunk of time each day to make it happen. Many day traders might try to balance their regular full-time job with Forex trading, but it can be difficult to juggle both endeavors. However, it can be done if you plan it right and make the necessary time commitment and thoroughly try to keep abreast of the latest Forex trading news and offerings.
Scheduling your time
Just like anything else that you're serious with, you'll need to keep set hours for day trading. If you work a 9 am - 5 pm job, you can easily day trade from 7 pm - 10 pm since the Forex market is open 24 hours a day, six days a week. You can even day trade on Sunday, when you don't have to worry about your other job. That extra day can really give you the opportunity to study the latest Forex market trends.
Online resources
Online Forex trading offers some of the sleekest and most impressive total package offerings. Many sites provide the latest Forex news in daily online journals where you can keep current with the latest happenings. You can read about such news items as projected interest rate cuts in Europe or the weakening of a certain country's currency due to the political climate. Not only are daily news articles available, but also fundamental and technical news alerts. These alerts can be sent to you around the clock, up to five or six times per day, so you get the latest information before you make that trade. Online Forex trading systems can send these all-important alerts via your email or even mobile phone, so that you have this information at your fingertips wherever you're located. You don't have to wait until you come home to open your account to see the latest happenings. It gives you a real heads-up on the market so you'll be able to make that day trade decision even that much quicker.
Another invaluable resource to make your day trading that much more successful are the online Forex seminars. It can help you brush up on your overall Forex knowledge and give you invaluable trading strategies for your Forex investments.
Scheduling your time
Just like anything else that you're serious with, you'll need to keep set hours for day trading. If you work a 9 am - 5 pm job, you can easily day trade from 7 pm - 10 pm since the Forex market is open 24 hours a day, six days a week. You can even day trade on Sunday, when you don't have to worry about your other job. That extra day can really give you the opportunity to study the latest Forex market trends.
Online resources
Online Forex trading offers some of the sleekest and most impressive total package offerings. Many sites provide the latest Forex news in daily online journals where you can keep current with the latest happenings. You can read about such news items as projected interest rate cuts in Europe or the weakening of a certain country's currency due to the political climate. Not only are daily news articles available, but also fundamental and technical news alerts. These alerts can be sent to you around the clock, up to five or six times per day, so you get the latest information before you make that trade. Online Forex trading systems can send these all-important alerts via your email or even mobile phone, so that you have this information at your fingertips wherever you're located. You don't have to wait until you come home to open your account to see the latest happenings. It gives you a real heads-up on the market so you'll be able to make that day trade decision even that much quicker.
Another invaluable resource to make your day trading that much more successful are the online Forex seminars. It can help you brush up on your overall Forex knowledge and give you invaluable trading strategies for your Forex investments.
Tips to Make Money Fast in Forex
This is all about making a fortune with Forex. Most traders just go with the flow and make average gains, with this article you will learn what makes some traders stand out and a lot richer than others!
We are going to assume that you know how to trade, and has quite an experience in trading.
With simple changes in your trade selection, money and risk management, and mindset, you can change that average gains into larger ones!
Fast money is in Forex, it is a lifestyle. here is it how its done.
Tip 1 . Embrace Changeability and Risk With a Smile
Forex systems have instability.
If you cannot manage and calculate your risk, then don't ever think about trading in Forex. Many traders back away from forex because of this ( why do you even traded in the first place?). But taking manageable risks has its rewards.
It's just simple, you know what your losing if ever it doesn't work out, yet what you gain is unpredictable but sure is high! That is what I call excitement, my friend.
To a well-educated Forex trader, this is something you shouldn't be afraid of, might as well embrace it.
Tip 2. Trade Less, gain more
Most traders think that if they don't trade, another door has closed, or miss some move. The tendency, they trade frequently. Most of the trades that come big come a few times in a year. Focus on the trades that make the really big gains. Be alert, and informed.
Tip 3. Diversify is a no-no
Most Investors accept the fact that diversification can make money fast - in reality it does exactly the opposite.
Tip 4. Money and Risk Management
This article has been concentrating on the Big gains, because this is your money, so every penny should be controlled, this is where money management kicks in.
Control your risks, but increase your chances of success:
- Give yourself staying power by buying options at or in the money, this prevents you from getting stopped out. Many traders lose not by the market direction, but because they were stopped out by a instable move, and options will give you staying power.
- Keep your stop in its original position - until the move is well in profit, before moving it up.
- Trading fast and selectively - have the courage to trade when you feel it is good. and enjoy the cash.
Tip 5. Compound growth has its benefits
The way to make money fast in forex, is to understand the power of compound growth. For example, if you target 50% a year in your trading, you can grow an initial $20,000 account, to over a million dollars, in under 10 years.
Break the norm, and gain more. Follow some of these tips and make your way into the big gains!
We are going to assume that you know how to trade, and has quite an experience in trading.
With simple changes in your trade selection, money and risk management, and mindset, you can change that average gains into larger ones!
Fast money is in Forex, it is a lifestyle. here is it how its done.
Tip 1 . Embrace Changeability and Risk With a Smile
Forex systems have instability.
If you cannot manage and calculate your risk, then don't ever think about trading in Forex. Many traders back away from forex because of this ( why do you even traded in the first place?). But taking manageable risks has its rewards.
It's just simple, you know what your losing if ever it doesn't work out, yet what you gain is unpredictable but sure is high! That is what I call excitement, my friend.
To a well-educated Forex trader, this is something you shouldn't be afraid of, might as well embrace it.
Tip 2. Trade Less, gain more
Most traders think that if they don't trade, another door has closed, or miss some move. The tendency, they trade frequently. Most of the trades that come big come a few times in a year. Focus on the trades that make the really big gains. Be alert, and informed.
Tip 3. Diversify is a no-no
Most Investors accept the fact that diversification can make money fast - in reality it does exactly the opposite.
Tip 4. Money and Risk Management
This article has been concentrating on the Big gains, because this is your money, so every penny should be controlled, this is where money management kicks in.
Control your risks, but increase your chances of success:
- Give yourself staying power by buying options at or in the money, this prevents you from getting stopped out. Many traders lose not by the market direction, but because they were stopped out by a instable move, and options will give you staying power.
- Keep your stop in its original position - until the move is well in profit, before moving it up.
- Trading fast and selectively - have the courage to trade when you feel it is good. and enjoy the cash.
Tip 5. Compound growth has its benefits
The way to make money fast in forex, is to understand the power of compound growth. For example, if you target 50% a year in your trading, you can grow an initial $20,000 account, to over a million dollars, in under 10 years.
Break the norm, and gain more. Follow some of these tips and make your way into the big gains!
133 Trading Tips
Learn the basics of Forex trading. It's amazing how many people simply don't know what they're doing. In order to compete at the highest level in the trading business and be one of the few truly successful participants you must be well-educated about what you are doing. This does not mean having a degree from a well-respected university - the market doesn't care where you were educated.
Forex trading is a zero sum game. For every long there is also a short. If 80% of the traders are on the long side, then the remaining 20% are on the short side. This means further that the shorts must be well capitalized and are considered to be strong hands. The 80%, who are holding much smaller positions per trader, are considered to be weaker hands who will be forced to liquidate those longs on any sudden turn in prices.
Nobody is bigger than the market.
The challenge is not to be the market, but to read the market. Riding the wave is much more rewarding than being hit by it.
Trade with the trends, rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms.
Trying to pick tops and bottoms is another common fx trading mistake. If you're going to trade tops and bottoms, at least wait until the price action actually confirms that a top or a bottom has been formed before you take a position in the market. Trying to pin-point tops and bottoms in the foreign exchange market is very risky, but exercising a little patience and waiting for a proven top or bottom to form can increase your odds of profiting and somewhat reduce your risk.
There are at least three types of markets: up trending, range bound, and down. Have different trading strategies for each.
Standing aside is a position.
In uptrends, buy the dips; in downtrends, sell bounces.
In a Bull market, never sell a dull market, in Bear market, never buy a dull market.
Up market and down market patterns are ALWAYS present, merely one is more dominant. In an up market, for example, it is very easy to take sell signal after sell signal, only to be stopped out time and again. Select trades with the trend.
A buy signal that fails is a sell signal. A sell signal that fails is a buy signal.
Let profits run, cut losses short.
Let your profits run, but don't let greed get in the way. Once you've already made a nice profit on a trade, consider taking either some or all of the money off the table and move on to the next trade. It's natural to hope that one trade will end up as your "winning lottery ticket" and make you rich, but that is simply not realistic. Don't hold the position too long and end up giving all your well-deserved profits back to the market.
Use protective stops to limit losses.
Use appropriate stop-loss orders at all times to cut your losses and never, ever sit back and let your losses run. Almost every trader at some point makes the mistake of letting his or her losses run in hopes that the market will eventually turn around in his or her favor but, more often than not, it simply leads to an even greater loss. You win some, you lose some. Simply learn to cut your losses, take your occasional lumps and move on to the next trade. And if you made a mistake, learn from it and don't do it again. To avoid letting your losses run, get into the habit of determining an acceptable profit target as well as an acceptable risk tolerance level for each and every Forex trade before entering the market. Then simply place a stop-loss order at the appropriate price - but not so tight (close to the market) that the stop could quickly take you out of the position before the market has a chance to move in your favor. Using a stop is always the smart move.
Avoid placing protective stops at obvious round numbers. Protective stops on long positions should be placed below round numbers (10, 20, 25, 50,75, 100) and on short positions, above such numbers.
Placing stop loss is an art. The trader must combine technical factors on the price chart with money management considerations.
Analyze your losses. Learn from your losses. They're expensive lessons; you paid for them. Most traders don't learn from their mistakes because they don't like to think about them.
Stay out of trouble, your first loss is your smallest loss.
Survive! In Forex trading, the ones who stay around long enough to be there when those "big moves" come along are often successful.
If you are a new trader, be a small trader (mini account) for at least a year, then analyze your good trades and your bad ones. You can really learn more from your bad ones.
Don't trade unless you're well financed... so that market action, not financial condition, dictates your entry and exit from the market. If you don't start with enough money, you may not be able to hang in there if the market temporarily turns against you.
Be more objective and less emotional.
Use money management principles.
Money management increases the odds that the trader will survive to reach the long run.
Diversify, but don't overdo it.
Employ at least a 3 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Calculate the risk/reward ratio before putting a trade on, then guard against holding it too long.
Don't trade impulsively; have a plan.
Have specific goals and objectives.
Five steps to build a trading system:
Start with a concept
Turn it into a set of objective rules
Visually check it out on the charts
Formally test it with a demo
Evaluate the results
Plan your work and work your plan.
Trade with a plan - not with hope, greed, or fear. Plan where you will get in the market, how much you will risk on the trade, and where you will take your profits.
Follow your plan. Once a position is established and stops are selected, do not get out unless the stop is reached or the fundamental reason for taking the position changes.
Any successful trading system must take into account three important factors: price forecasting, timing, and money management. Price forecasting indicates which way a market is expected to trend. Timing determines specific entry and exit points. Money management determines how much to commit to the trade.
Don't cherry-pick your system's set-ups. Trade every signal.
Trading systems that work in an up market may not work in a down market.
Establish your trading plans before the market opening to eliminate emotional reactions. Decide on entry points, exit points, and objectives. Subject your decisions to only minor changes during the session. Profits are for those who act, not react.Don't change during the session unless you have a very good reason.
Double-check everything.
Always think in terms of probabilities. Trading is all about thinking in probabilities NOT certainties. You can make all the "right" decisions and the trade still goes against you. This does not make it a "wrong" trade, just one of the many trades you will take which, through probability, are on the "loosing" side of your trading plan. Don't expect not to have negative trades - they are a necessary part of the plan and cannot be avoided.
The place to start your market analysis is always by determining the general trend of the market.
Trade only with a strategy that you've proven to yourself.
When pyramiding (adding positions), follow these guidelines:
Each successive layer should be smaller than before.
Add only to winning positions.
Never add to a losing position. One of the few trade management rules that we can state we never break is 'Never add to a losing trade'. Trades are split into winners and losers, and if a trade is a loser, the chances of it turning right around and becoming a winner are too small to risk more money on. If indeed it is a winner disguised as a loser, why not wait until it shows it's true colors (and becomes a winner)before you add to it. If you do this you will notice that nearly always the trade ends up hitting your stop loss and does not look back. Sometimes the trade turns around before it hits your stop and becomes a winner and you can count yourself very fortunate. Sometimes the trade hits your stop loss and then turns around and becomes a winner and you can count yourself unlucky.
Whatever the result, it is never worth adding to a loser, hoping that it will become a winner. The odds of success are just too low to risk more capital in addition to the initial risk.
Adjust protective stops to the breakeven point.
Risk Control
Never risk more than 3-4 percent of your capital on any trade
Predetermine your exit point before you get into a trade
If you lose a certain predetermined amount of your starting capital, stop trading, analyze what went wrong, and wait until you feel confident before you begin trading
Don't trade scared money. No one ever made any money trading when they had to do it to pay the mortgage at the end of the month. Having a requirement to make X dollars per month or you will be financially in trouble is the best way I know to completely mess up all trading discipline, rules, objectives, and leads quickly to disaster. Trading is about taking a reasonable risk in order to achieve a good reward. The markets and how and when they give up their profits is not under your control. Do not trade if you need the money to pay bills. Do not trade if your business and personal expenses are not covered by another income stream or cash reserve. This will only lead to additional unmanageable stress and be very detrimental to your trading performance.
Know why you are in the markets. To relieve boredom? To hit it big? When you can honestly answer this question, you may be on your way to successful Forex trading
Never meet a margin call; don't throw good money after bad.
Close out losing positions before the winning ones.
Except for very short term trading, make decisions away from the market, preferably when the markets are closed.
Work from the long term to the short term.
Use intraday charts to fine-tune entry and exit.
Master interday trading before trying intraday trading.
Don't trade the time frame. Trade the pattern. Reversal patterns, hesitation patterns and breakout patterns appear often. Learn to look for the pattern in any time frame.
Try to ignore conventional wisdom; don't take anything said in the financial media too seriously.
Always do your homework and stay current on global events. You never know what's going to set off a particular currency on any given day.
Learn to be comfortable being in the minority. If you are right on the market, most people will disagree with you. (90% losers,10% winners).
Technical analysis is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student and keep learning.
Beware of all tips and inside information. Wait for the market's action to tell you if the information you've obtained is accurate, then take a position with the developing trend.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
K.I.S.S - Keep It Simple Stupid, more complicated isn't always better.
Timing is especially crucial in Forex trading.
Timing is everything in Forex trading. Determining the correct direction of the market only solves a portion of the trading problem. If the timing of the entry point is off by a day, or sometimes even minutes, it can mean the difference between a winner or a loser.
A "buy and hold" strategy doesn't apply in Forex trading.
When you open an account with a broker, don't just decide on the amount of money, decide on the length of time you should trade. This approach helps you conserve your equity, and helps avoid the Las Vegas approach of "Well, I'll trade till my stake runs out." Experience shows that many who have been at it over a long period of time end up making money.
Carry a notebook with you, and jot down interesting market information. Write down the market openings, price ranges, your fills, stop orders, and your own personal observations. Re-read your notes from time to time; use them to help analyze your performance.
Don't count profits in your first 20 trades. Keep track of the percentage of wins. Once you know you can pick direction, profits can be increased with multi-plot trading and variations in using your stops. In other words, now is the time to get serious about money management.
"Rome was not built in a day," and no real movement of importance takes place in one day.
Do not overtrade.
Have two accounts. One real account and the other a demo account. Learning doesn't stop when trading real dollars begins. Keep the demo account and use it to test alternative trades, alternative stops, etc.
Patience is important not only in waiting for the right trades,but also in staying with trades that are working.
You are superstitious; don't trade if something bothers you.
Technical analysis is the study of market action through the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price trends.
The charts reflect the bullish or bearish psychology of the marketplace.
The whole purpose of charting the price action of a market is to identify trends in early stages of their development for the purpose of trading in the direction of those trends.
The fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement, while the technician studies the effect.
Rising commodity prices generally hint at a stronger economy and rising inflationary pressure. Falling commodity prices usually warn that the economy is slowing along with inflation.
The longer the period of time that priced trade in a support or resistance area,the more significant that area becomes.
There are three decisions confronting the trader -whether- to go long, go short or do nothing. When a market is rising, the best strategy is preferable. When the market is falling, the second approach would be correct. However, when the market is moving sideways, the third choise - to stay out of the market - is usually the wisest.
Channel lines have measuring implications. Once a breakout occurs from an existing price channel, prices usually travel a distance equal to the width of the channel. Therefore, the trader has to simply measure the width of the channel and then project that amount from the point at which either trendline is broken.
The larger the Pattern, the Great the potential. When we use the term "larger", we are referring to the the height and the width of the price pattern. The height measures the volatility of the pattern. The width is the amount of time required to build and complete the pattern. The greater the size of the pattern-that is, the wider the price swings within the pattern (the volatility ) and the longer it takes to build - the more important the pattern becomes and the greater the potential for the ensuing price move.
The breaking of important trendlines. The first sign of an impending trend reversal is often the breaking of an important trendline. Remember however, that the violation of a major trendline does not necessarily signal a trend reversal.The breaking of a major up trendline might signal the beginning of a sideways price pattern, which later would be intedified as either the reversal or consolidation type.Sometimes the breaking of the major trendline coincides with the completion of the price pattern.
The minimum requirement for a triangle is four reversal points. Remember that it always takes two points to draw a trendline.
The moving average is a follower, not a leader. It never anticipates; it only reacts. The moving average follows a market and tells us that a trend has begun, but only after the fact.
Shorter term averages are more sensitive to the price action, whereas longer range averages are less sensitive.In certain types of markets, it is more advantageous to use a shorter average and, at other times, a longer and less sensitive average proves more useful.
When the closing price moves above the moving average, a buy signal is generated. A sell signal is given when prices move below the moving average.
A buying signal on a two-moving average combination occurs when the shorter term of two consecutive averages intersects the longer one upward. A selling signal occurs when the reverse happens, and the longer of two consecutive averages intersects the shorter one downward.
Shorter average generates more false signals, it has the advantage of giving trend signals earlier in the move. The trick is to find the average that is sensitive enough to generate early signals, but insensitive enough to avoid most of the random "noise".
Cutting losses is painful for every trader. The ability to cut one's losses in time is the sign of a seasoned trader.
A channel breakout suggests a target for the currency price equal to the width of the channel.
Long term charts provide important information regarding long-terms or cycles. The trader can get a correct perspective regarding the real direction of the market in the long run, the strength or direction of the current trend occurring within that trend, or the possibility of a breakout from the long-term trend.
Common Points All Of Reversal Patterms
The first signal of an impending trend reversal is often the breaking of an important trendline
The larger the pattern,the greater the subsequent move
Topping patterns are usually shorter in duration and more volatile than bottoms
Bottoms usually have smaller price ranges and take longer to build
The head-and-shoulders formation is confirmed only when the completion of the three rallies and their reversals is followed by a breach of the neckline. The failure of the price to break through the neckline on closing prices basis puts on hold or negates the validity of the formation.
The double-top formation is confirmed only when the full completion of the two rallies and their respective reversals is followed by a breach of the neckline (the closing price is outside the neckline). The failure of the price to break through the neckline puts on hold or negates the validity of the formation.
The flag formation is a reliable chart pattern that provides two vital signals: direction and price objective. This formation consists of a brief consolidation period within a solid and steep upward trend or downward trend. The consolidation itself tends to be sloped in the opposite direction from the slope of the original trend, or simply flat.
A Breakaway gap provides the direction of the market.
The runaway or measurement gap provides the direction of the market. This gap confirms the health and velocity of the trend.
The runaway or measurement gap is the only type of gap that provides a price objective. The price objective is the previous length of the trend, measured from the runaway gap, in the same direction as the original trend.
The exhaustion gap provides the direction of the market.
Near the beginning of important moves, oscillator analysis isn't that helpful and can be misleading. Toward the end of market moves, however, oscillators become extremely valuable.
When the oscillator reaches an extreme value in either the upper or lower end of the band, this suggest that the current price move have gone too far too fast and is due for a correction of some type.
The oscillator is most useful when its value reaches an extreme reading near the upper or lower end of its boundaries. The market is said to be overbought when it is near the upper extreme and oversold when it is near the lower extreme. This warns that the price trend is overextended and vulnerable.
A divergence between the oscillator and the price action when the oscillator is in an extreme position is usually an important warning.
Oscillator - the crossing of the zero line can give important trading signals in the direction of the price trend.
Because of the way it is constructed, the momentum line is always a step ahead of the price movement. It leads the advance or decline in prices, then levels off while the current price trend is still in effect. It then begins to move in the opposite direction as prices begin to level off.
RSI is plotted on a vertical scale of 0 to 100. Movements above 70 are considered overbought, while an oversold condition would be a move under 30. Because of shifting that takes place in bull and bear markets, the 80 level usually becomes the overbought level in bull markets and the 20 level the oversold level in bear markets.
The first move of RSI into the overbought or oversold region is usually just a warning. The signal to pay close attention to is the second move by the oscillator into the danger zone. If the second move fails to confirm the price move into new highs or new lows, a possible divergence exists. At that point, some defensive action can be taken to protect existing positions. If the oscillator moves in the opposite direction, breaking a previous high or low, then a divergence or failure swing is confirmed.
Stochastics simply measures, on a percentage basis of 0 to 100, where the closing price is in relation to the total price range for a selected time period. A very high reading (over 80) would put the closing price near the top of the range, while a low reading (under 20) near the bottom of the range.
One way to combine daily and weekly stochastics is to use weekly signals to determine market direction and daily signals for timing(it depends from the type of the trader). It's also a good idea to combine stochastics with RSI.
Most oscillator buy signals work best in uptrends and oscillator sell signals are most profitables in downtrends. The place to start your market analysis is always by determining the general trend of the market. Oscillators can then be used to help time market entry.
Give less attention to the oscillators in the early stages of an important move, but pay close attention to its signals as the move reaches maturity.
The best way to combine technical indicators is use weekly signals to determine market direction and the daily signals to fine-tune entry and exit points. A daily signal is followed only when it agrees with the weekly signal (daily-weekly, 4 hour-daily, 4 hour-1 hour).
The failure of prices to react to bullish news in an overbought area is a clear warning that a turn may be near. The failure of prices in an oversold area to react to bearish news can be taken as a warning that all the bad news has been fully discounted in the current low price. Any bullish news will push prices higher.
-Elliot Wave Theory- A complete bull market cycle is made up of eight waves, five up waves followed by three down waves.
-Elliot Wave Theory- A trend divides into five waves in the direction of the longer trend.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Corrections always take place in three waves.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Waves can be expanded into longer waves and subdivided into shorter waves.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Sometimes one of the impulse waves extends. The other two should then be equal in time and magnitude.
-Elliot Wave Theory- The Finobacci sequence is the mathematical basis of the Elliot Wave Theory.
-Elliot Wave Theory- The number of waves follows the Finobacci sequence.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Finobacci ratios and retracements are used to determine price objectives. The most common retracements are 62%, 50% and 38%.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Bear markets should not fall below the bottom of the previous fourth wave.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Wave 4 should not overlap wave 1.
Support and resistance are the most effective chart tools to use for entry and exit points. For purposes of placing stop loss, support and resistance levels are most valuable.
One of the commodities most effected by the dollar is the gold market. The prices of gold and the U.S. dollar usually trend in opposite directions.
The Yen is sensitive to changes in the price or structure of the raw material markets.
The commodity-producing countries (Canada, Australia, N. Zealand ) are more dependent on Japan than the other way around.
The Yen is sensitive to the fortunes of the Nikkei index, the Japanese stock market and the real estate market.
The majority of the pound transactions take place in London with a volume decreasing significantly in the U.S. market, and slowing down to a trickle in Asia. Therefore, in the New York market, many banks have to stop quoting the pound at noon.
Swiss Franc has a very close economic relationship with Germany, and thus to the euro zone.
The major markets are London, with 32 percent of the market,New York with 18 percent and Tokyo with 8 percent. Singapore follows with 7 percent, Germany has 5 percent and Switzerland, France and Hong Kong have 4 percent each.
Don't use the markets to feed your need for excitement.
Don't be too greedy or too cautious.
Forex trading is a zero sum game. For every long there is also a short. If 80% of the traders are on the long side, then the remaining 20% are on the short side. This means further that the shorts must be well capitalized and are considered to be strong hands. The 80%, who are holding much smaller positions per trader, are considered to be weaker hands who will be forced to liquidate those longs on any sudden turn in prices.
Nobody is bigger than the market.
The challenge is not to be the market, but to read the market. Riding the wave is much more rewarding than being hit by it.
Trade with the trends, rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms.
Trying to pick tops and bottoms is another common fx trading mistake. If you're going to trade tops and bottoms, at least wait until the price action actually confirms that a top or a bottom has been formed before you take a position in the market. Trying to pin-point tops and bottoms in the foreign exchange market is very risky, but exercising a little patience and waiting for a proven top or bottom to form can increase your odds of profiting and somewhat reduce your risk.
There are at least three types of markets: up trending, range bound, and down. Have different trading strategies for each.
Standing aside is a position.
In uptrends, buy the dips; in downtrends, sell bounces.
In a Bull market, never sell a dull market, in Bear market, never buy a dull market.
Up market and down market patterns are ALWAYS present, merely one is more dominant. In an up market, for example, it is very easy to take sell signal after sell signal, only to be stopped out time and again. Select trades with the trend.
A buy signal that fails is a sell signal. A sell signal that fails is a buy signal.
Let profits run, cut losses short.
Let your profits run, but don't let greed get in the way. Once you've already made a nice profit on a trade, consider taking either some or all of the money off the table and move on to the next trade. It's natural to hope that one trade will end up as your "winning lottery ticket" and make you rich, but that is simply not realistic. Don't hold the position too long and end up giving all your well-deserved profits back to the market.
Use protective stops to limit losses.
Use appropriate stop-loss orders at all times to cut your losses and never, ever sit back and let your losses run. Almost every trader at some point makes the mistake of letting his or her losses run in hopes that the market will eventually turn around in his or her favor but, more often than not, it simply leads to an even greater loss. You win some, you lose some. Simply learn to cut your losses, take your occasional lumps and move on to the next trade. And if you made a mistake, learn from it and don't do it again. To avoid letting your losses run, get into the habit of determining an acceptable profit target as well as an acceptable risk tolerance level for each and every Forex trade before entering the market. Then simply place a stop-loss order at the appropriate price - but not so tight (close to the market) that the stop could quickly take you out of the position before the market has a chance to move in your favor. Using a stop is always the smart move.
Avoid placing protective stops at obvious round numbers. Protective stops on long positions should be placed below round numbers (10, 20, 25, 50,75, 100) and on short positions, above such numbers.
Placing stop loss is an art. The trader must combine technical factors on the price chart with money management considerations.
Analyze your losses. Learn from your losses. They're expensive lessons; you paid for them. Most traders don't learn from their mistakes because they don't like to think about them.
Stay out of trouble, your first loss is your smallest loss.
Survive! In Forex trading, the ones who stay around long enough to be there when those "big moves" come along are often successful.
If you are a new trader, be a small trader (mini account) for at least a year, then analyze your good trades and your bad ones. You can really learn more from your bad ones.
Don't trade unless you're well financed... so that market action, not financial condition, dictates your entry and exit from the market. If you don't start with enough money, you may not be able to hang in there if the market temporarily turns against you.
Be more objective and less emotional.
Use money management principles.
Money management increases the odds that the trader will survive to reach the long run.
Diversify, but don't overdo it.
Employ at least a 3 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Calculate the risk/reward ratio before putting a trade on, then guard against holding it too long.
Don't trade impulsively; have a plan.
Have specific goals and objectives.
Five steps to build a trading system:
Start with a concept
Turn it into a set of objective rules
Visually check it out on the charts
Formally test it with a demo
Evaluate the results
Plan your work and work your plan.
Trade with a plan - not with hope, greed, or fear. Plan where you will get in the market, how much you will risk on the trade, and where you will take your profits.
Follow your plan. Once a position is established and stops are selected, do not get out unless the stop is reached or the fundamental reason for taking the position changes.
Any successful trading system must take into account three important factors: price forecasting, timing, and money management. Price forecasting indicates which way a market is expected to trend. Timing determines specific entry and exit points. Money management determines how much to commit to the trade.
Don't cherry-pick your system's set-ups. Trade every signal.
Trading systems that work in an up market may not work in a down market.
Establish your trading plans before the market opening to eliminate emotional reactions. Decide on entry points, exit points, and objectives. Subject your decisions to only minor changes during the session. Profits are for those who act, not react.Don't change during the session unless you have a very good reason.
Double-check everything.
Always think in terms of probabilities. Trading is all about thinking in probabilities NOT certainties. You can make all the "right" decisions and the trade still goes against you. This does not make it a "wrong" trade, just one of the many trades you will take which, through probability, are on the "loosing" side of your trading plan. Don't expect not to have negative trades - they are a necessary part of the plan and cannot be avoided.
The place to start your market analysis is always by determining the general trend of the market.
Trade only with a strategy that you've proven to yourself.
When pyramiding (adding positions), follow these guidelines:
Each successive layer should be smaller than before.
Add only to winning positions.
Never add to a losing position. One of the few trade management rules that we can state we never break is 'Never add to a losing trade'. Trades are split into winners and losers, and if a trade is a loser, the chances of it turning right around and becoming a winner are too small to risk more money on. If indeed it is a winner disguised as a loser, why not wait until it shows it's true colors (and becomes a winner)before you add to it. If you do this you will notice that nearly always the trade ends up hitting your stop loss and does not look back. Sometimes the trade turns around before it hits your stop and becomes a winner and you can count yourself very fortunate. Sometimes the trade hits your stop loss and then turns around and becomes a winner and you can count yourself unlucky.
Whatever the result, it is never worth adding to a loser, hoping that it will become a winner. The odds of success are just too low to risk more capital in addition to the initial risk.
Adjust protective stops to the breakeven point.
Risk Control
Never risk more than 3-4 percent of your capital on any trade
Predetermine your exit point before you get into a trade
If you lose a certain predetermined amount of your starting capital, stop trading, analyze what went wrong, and wait until you feel confident before you begin trading
Don't trade scared money. No one ever made any money trading when they had to do it to pay the mortgage at the end of the month. Having a requirement to make X dollars per month or you will be financially in trouble is the best way I know to completely mess up all trading discipline, rules, objectives, and leads quickly to disaster. Trading is about taking a reasonable risk in order to achieve a good reward. The markets and how and when they give up their profits is not under your control. Do not trade if you need the money to pay bills. Do not trade if your business and personal expenses are not covered by another income stream or cash reserve. This will only lead to additional unmanageable stress and be very detrimental to your trading performance.
Know why you are in the markets. To relieve boredom? To hit it big? When you can honestly answer this question, you may be on your way to successful Forex trading
Never meet a margin call; don't throw good money after bad.
Close out losing positions before the winning ones.
Except for very short term trading, make decisions away from the market, preferably when the markets are closed.
Work from the long term to the short term.
Use intraday charts to fine-tune entry and exit.
Master interday trading before trying intraday trading.
Don't trade the time frame. Trade the pattern. Reversal patterns, hesitation patterns and breakout patterns appear often. Learn to look for the pattern in any time frame.
Try to ignore conventional wisdom; don't take anything said in the financial media too seriously.
Always do your homework and stay current on global events. You never know what's going to set off a particular currency on any given day.
Learn to be comfortable being in the minority. If you are right on the market, most people will disagree with you. (90% losers,10% winners).
Technical analysis is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student and keep learning.
Beware of all tips and inside information. Wait for the market's action to tell you if the information you've obtained is accurate, then take a position with the developing trend.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
K.I.S.S - Keep It Simple Stupid, more complicated isn't always better.
Timing is especially crucial in Forex trading.
Timing is everything in Forex trading. Determining the correct direction of the market only solves a portion of the trading problem. If the timing of the entry point is off by a day, or sometimes even minutes, it can mean the difference between a winner or a loser.
A "buy and hold" strategy doesn't apply in Forex trading.
When you open an account with a broker, don't just decide on the amount of money, decide on the length of time you should trade. This approach helps you conserve your equity, and helps avoid the Las Vegas approach of "Well, I'll trade till my stake runs out." Experience shows that many who have been at it over a long period of time end up making money.
Carry a notebook with you, and jot down interesting market information. Write down the market openings, price ranges, your fills, stop orders, and your own personal observations. Re-read your notes from time to time; use them to help analyze your performance.
Don't count profits in your first 20 trades. Keep track of the percentage of wins. Once you know you can pick direction, profits can be increased with multi-plot trading and variations in using your stops. In other words, now is the time to get serious about money management.
"Rome was not built in a day," and no real movement of importance takes place in one day.
Do not overtrade.
Have two accounts. One real account and the other a demo account. Learning doesn't stop when trading real dollars begins. Keep the demo account and use it to test alternative trades, alternative stops, etc.
Patience is important not only in waiting for the right trades,but also in staying with trades that are working.
You are superstitious; don't trade if something bothers you.
Technical analysis is the study of market action through the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price trends.
The charts reflect the bullish or bearish psychology of the marketplace.
The whole purpose of charting the price action of a market is to identify trends in early stages of their development for the purpose of trading in the direction of those trends.
The fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement, while the technician studies the effect.
Rising commodity prices generally hint at a stronger economy and rising inflationary pressure. Falling commodity prices usually warn that the economy is slowing along with inflation.
The longer the period of time that priced trade in a support or resistance area,the more significant that area becomes.
There are three decisions confronting the trader -whether- to go long, go short or do nothing. When a market is rising, the best strategy is preferable. When the market is falling, the second approach would be correct. However, when the market is moving sideways, the third choise - to stay out of the market - is usually the wisest.
Channel lines have measuring implications. Once a breakout occurs from an existing price channel, prices usually travel a distance equal to the width of the channel. Therefore, the trader has to simply measure the width of the channel and then project that amount from the point at which either trendline is broken.
The larger the Pattern, the Great the potential. When we use the term "larger", we are referring to the the height and the width of the price pattern. The height measures the volatility of the pattern. The width is the amount of time required to build and complete the pattern. The greater the size of the pattern-that is, the wider the price swings within the pattern (the volatility ) and the longer it takes to build - the more important the pattern becomes and the greater the potential for the ensuing price move.
The breaking of important trendlines. The first sign of an impending trend reversal is often the breaking of an important trendline. Remember however, that the violation of a major trendline does not necessarily signal a trend reversal.The breaking of a major up trendline might signal the beginning of a sideways price pattern, which later would be intedified as either the reversal or consolidation type.Sometimes the breaking of the major trendline coincides with the completion of the price pattern.
The minimum requirement for a triangle is four reversal points. Remember that it always takes two points to draw a trendline.
The moving average is a follower, not a leader. It never anticipates; it only reacts. The moving average follows a market and tells us that a trend has begun, but only after the fact.
Shorter term averages are more sensitive to the price action, whereas longer range averages are less sensitive.In certain types of markets, it is more advantageous to use a shorter average and, at other times, a longer and less sensitive average proves more useful.
When the closing price moves above the moving average, a buy signal is generated. A sell signal is given when prices move below the moving average.
A buying signal on a two-moving average combination occurs when the shorter term of two consecutive averages intersects the longer one upward. A selling signal occurs when the reverse happens, and the longer of two consecutive averages intersects the shorter one downward.
Shorter average generates more false signals, it has the advantage of giving trend signals earlier in the move. The trick is to find the average that is sensitive enough to generate early signals, but insensitive enough to avoid most of the random "noise".
Cutting losses is painful for every trader. The ability to cut one's losses in time is the sign of a seasoned trader.
A channel breakout suggests a target for the currency price equal to the width of the channel.
Long term charts provide important information regarding long-terms or cycles. The trader can get a correct perspective regarding the real direction of the market in the long run, the strength or direction of the current trend occurring within that trend, or the possibility of a breakout from the long-term trend.
Common Points All Of Reversal Patterms
The first signal of an impending trend reversal is often the breaking of an important trendline
The larger the pattern,the greater the subsequent move
Topping patterns are usually shorter in duration and more volatile than bottoms
Bottoms usually have smaller price ranges and take longer to build
The head-and-shoulders formation is confirmed only when the completion of the three rallies and their reversals is followed by a breach of the neckline. The failure of the price to break through the neckline on closing prices basis puts on hold or negates the validity of the formation.
The double-top formation is confirmed only when the full completion of the two rallies and their respective reversals is followed by a breach of the neckline (the closing price is outside the neckline). The failure of the price to break through the neckline puts on hold or negates the validity of the formation.
The flag formation is a reliable chart pattern that provides two vital signals: direction and price objective. This formation consists of a brief consolidation period within a solid and steep upward trend or downward trend. The consolidation itself tends to be sloped in the opposite direction from the slope of the original trend, or simply flat.
A Breakaway gap provides the direction of the market.
The runaway or measurement gap provides the direction of the market. This gap confirms the health and velocity of the trend.
The runaway or measurement gap is the only type of gap that provides a price objective. The price objective is the previous length of the trend, measured from the runaway gap, in the same direction as the original trend.
The exhaustion gap provides the direction of the market.
Near the beginning of important moves, oscillator analysis isn't that helpful and can be misleading. Toward the end of market moves, however, oscillators become extremely valuable.
When the oscillator reaches an extreme value in either the upper or lower end of the band, this suggest that the current price move have gone too far too fast and is due for a correction of some type.
The oscillator is most useful when its value reaches an extreme reading near the upper or lower end of its boundaries. The market is said to be overbought when it is near the upper extreme and oversold when it is near the lower extreme. This warns that the price trend is overextended and vulnerable.
A divergence between the oscillator and the price action when the oscillator is in an extreme position is usually an important warning.
Oscillator - the crossing of the zero line can give important trading signals in the direction of the price trend.
Because of the way it is constructed, the momentum line is always a step ahead of the price movement. It leads the advance or decline in prices, then levels off while the current price trend is still in effect. It then begins to move in the opposite direction as prices begin to level off.
RSI is plotted on a vertical scale of 0 to 100. Movements above 70 are considered overbought, while an oversold condition would be a move under 30. Because of shifting that takes place in bull and bear markets, the 80 level usually becomes the overbought level in bull markets and the 20 level the oversold level in bear markets.
The first move of RSI into the overbought or oversold region is usually just a warning. The signal to pay close attention to is the second move by the oscillator into the danger zone. If the second move fails to confirm the price move into new highs or new lows, a possible divergence exists. At that point, some defensive action can be taken to protect existing positions. If the oscillator moves in the opposite direction, breaking a previous high or low, then a divergence or failure swing is confirmed.
Stochastics simply measures, on a percentage basis of 0 to 100, where the closing price is in relation to the total price range for a selected time period. A very high reading (over 80) would put the closing price near the top of the range, while a low reading (under 20) near the bottom of the range.
One way to combine daily and weekly stochastics is to use weekly signals to determine market direction and daily signals for timing(it depends from the type of the trader). It's also a good idea to combine stochastics with RSI.
Most oscillator buy signals work best in uptrends and oscillator sell signals are most profitables in downtrends. The place to start your market analysis is always by determining the general trend of the market. Oscillators can then be used to help time market entry.
Give less attention to the oscillators in the early stages of an important move, but pay close attention to its signals as the move reaches maturity.
The best way to combine technical indicators is use weekly signals to determine market direction and the daily signals to fine-tune entry and exit points. A daily signal is followed only when it agrees with the weekly signal (daily-weekly, 4 hour-daily, 4 hour-1 hour).
The failure of prices to react to bullish news in an overbought area is a clear warning that a turn may be near. The failure of prices in an oversold area to react to bearish news can be taken as a warning that all the bad news has been fully discounted in the current low price. Any bullish news will push prices higher.
-Elliot Wave Theory- A complete bull market cycle is made up of eight waves, five up waves followed by three down waves.
-Elliot Wave Theory- A trend divides into five waves in the direction of the longer trend.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Corrections always take place in three waves.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Waves can be expanded into longer waves and subdivided into shorter waves.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Sometimes one of the impulse waves extends. The other two should then be equal in time and magnitude.
-Elliot Wave Theory- The Finobacci sequence is the mathematical basis of the Elliot Wave Theory.
-Elliot Wave Theory- The number of waves follows the Finobacci sequence.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Finobacci ratios and retracements are used to determine price objectives. The most common retracements are 62%, 50% and 38%.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Bear markets should not fall below the bottom of the previous fourth wave.
-Elliot Wave Theory- Wave 4 should not overlap wave 1.
Support and resistance are the most effective chart tools to use for entry and exit points. For purposes of placing stop loss, support and resistance levels are most valuable.
One of the commodities most effected by the dollar is the gold market. The prices of gold and the U.S. dollar usually trend in opposite directions.
The Yen is sensitive to changes in the price or structure of the raw material markets.
The commodity-producing countries (Canada, Australia, N. Zealand ) are more dependent on Japan than the other way around.
The Yen is sensitive to the fortunes of the Nikkei index, the Japanese stock market and the real estate market.
The majority of the pound transactions take place in London with a volume decreasing significantly in the U.S. market, and slowing down to a trickle in Asia. Therefore, in the New York market, many banks have to stop quoting the pound at noon.
Swiss Franc has a very close economic relationship with Germany, and thus to the euro zone.
The major markets are London, with 32 percent of the market,New York with 18 percent and Tokyo with 8 percent. Singapore follows with 7 percent, Germany has 5 percent and Switzerland, France and Hong Kong have 4 percent each.
Don't use the markets to feed your need for excitement.
Don't be too greedy or too cautious.
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