From time to time I get some very interesting confessions. Here is a very recent one, along with a solution.
"Hey Joe! I had been looking at a profitable trade setup all day. I studied indicator after indicator looking for confirmation, even though I know many are correlated and redundant. But I just kept on searching. I thought, ’Maybe I missed something.’ My account is now so small that I just wanted to be sure that this was the right trade. My thought was that I must take into consideration anything and everything that could cause this trade to fail. I can’t afford to lose any more money. What should I do?"
Well, my friend, you need to be able to make a decision, but you can’t do it if you are trading undercapitalized and making your trading decisions out of fear and uncertainty.
You are suffering from too much analysis. You are looking at so many things, you no longer can see straight. If you keep on over-analyzing your trades, it may develop into a deep-seated psychological problem.
Carefully analyzing the possible consequences of your trading decisions is healthy, but it becomes unhealthy when it is overdone. When it comes to trading, it’s important to have a clearly defined trading plan. You want to be sure that any given trade is not going to wipe out your trading account. That is one of the reasons we want you to use a time stop in addition to a money stop. When you use both types of stops you are clearly defining the signs and signals that indicate your trading plan is not working, suggesting that you should close out the trade to protect your capital.
Trading, by its very nature, is uncertain. There is little that can be described as security for traders. Every trade is a new event, and every entry is an entirely new business. A trader does not have the luxury of living from his past accomplishments.
If you have an unquenchable thirst for certainty, then trading is not for you. Uncertainty in trading is co-equal with insecurity. If money represents security to you, you have a real problem as a trader. Losing money not only costs you your financial security, but also your emotional security.
At many of my seminars and private tutorings I tell people that I have completely divorced myself from the money involved in trading. I don’t even know until the end of the month whether I have won or lost. I trained myself to think of trading as an endeavor in which I strive to make points. Only later are those points translated to dollars. In that sense, for me trading is a game. But I never lose sight of the fact that trading is also a serious business.
Insecurity in traders who over-analyze manifests in searching for the holy grail of trading, desperately seeking the right indicator or the perfect trade setup. The problem you’re having is that even when you see something, you are not sure it is sufficiently perfect for you to act on. Why? Because you lack confidence in your ability to trade what you see. Because you lack confidence in yourself. And because you fear the pain of another loss.
Here’s how I was taught to do my analytical work.
First, I went through all my charts to get an overview of the markets. During that time, I looked for trending markets. Trend lines were placed on the charts as long as they had a 30° or greater angle. Until I became used to what that looked like, I used a protractor to determine the angle. This action got me used to identifying the trend. These days it is easily done with your software.
Next, I went through all my charts again looking for "against the grain" moves-the intermediate trend that went against the longer term trend. This alerted me to markets that might soon resume trending.
Then I went through all my charts looking for Ross hooks™. I marked each hook with a bright red "h". Then, in light of the size of my margin account, I tried to select those markets that appeared to have the greatest potential, and I placed order entry stops just above or below the hooks. These were resting orders in the market. I tried to never miss a hook. I phoned my orders in daily.
How did I know which markets had the greatest potential? The answer is simple. I selected those markets that had the strongest trend lines.
Now there was a trick to this. I didn’t want too steep an angle, because in a rising market that often signals that the end of a move is near. Markets that break out too fast and go straight up rarely give an opportunity for entry before they start to chop around in congestion. Markets that have been going up at a steady angle, and suddenly that angle steepens-goes parabolic, are giving a warning that the move may soon be over.
In down markets I was willing to allow a steeper angle, because often a market will move down a lot faster than it moved up.
What I most wanted was trending markets that were making a retracement. Then I could attempt an entry as the market retraced, when it reached the proximity of the trend line, and then seemed to resume its trend, and when it took out the Ross hook™ created by the retracement.
Sometimes I had to wait for weeks before the markets started trending. The same is true today; nothing has changed other than that intraday it can happen a lot sooner. There will usually be at least a couple of markets in that condition, but there are times when there are none.
Yet I did my homework every day. The only way to know when an important breakout, the beginning of a trend, would occur, was to perform my daily analytical work.
Finally, I would set my work aside and take a break for dinner. After dinner, when my head had cleared a bit, I would look at my charts again. I would then do my best to come up with a trading plan. I would try to think through what I was going to do. I would ask myself a million "what if’s." I tried to anticipate what might happen in the market.
Often that kind of thinking would cause me to eliminate some of my potential trades. Also, a second look at times resulted in "why didn’t I see this before?"
For instance, what if you look at a market that is approaching its trend line. Isn’t it reasonable to ask yourself, "If this market breaks the trend line, what would I do?" Ask yourself how such an event would change the picture. If you had a position, would you still want to hold it? If you had no position, would this cause you to take a position opposite what was the trend? If it would, then why not place an order entry stop with limit, just the other side of that trend line? Very often, when prices approach a trend line from what has been a trending channel, they are already in a counter trend within the channel. That means a breakout of the trend line would be a continuation of this newly formed trend.
Finally, I would put my work aside and go to bed. In the morning I would look at my charts once again. Then I would write out scripts for the orders I wanted to place.
I would rehearse how authoritatively I was going to give these orders.
I did all this and more before I entered a trade. But do you know what most traders do? They do their analysis after the trade is made. Too often, they do it when the trade is already going against them.
How many times have you entered a trade, and then said to yourself, "Oh no, why didn’t I see that before?" How could you have seen it if you hadn’t looked, and looked again, and thought about it, and then perhaps looked one more time?
Also, many traders do their analysis after entering the trade in search of a justification for having entered. "Now I’m in the trade, let’s see if I can find out a couple of good reasons as to why!"
If you want to be a successful trader, you have to be hard. Hard on yourself and hard on your broker. I don’t mean that you have to be a rat, or be impolite, or be contemptuous. You just have to be firm in all that you do. You can’t afford to be "Mickey Mouse" about the way you do things. This is a business; you must be businesslike in conducting your affairs.
As a business person, you must manage your business. One of the main functions of management is planning. You have to plan your trades. Other things to look for as you go through your charts are: One-two-three formations, cups with handle, matching congestions, reversal bars, and Doji’s. These should all be part of your plan.
Some people give more thought to choosing which flavor ice cream to eat than to which market to enter and how and when to do it.
By not taking the time for preparation, you end up not having enough time to weigh the pros and cons or really familiarize yourself with what you are getting into.
You don’t have time to realize that prices have supported two ticks away from your entry about forty times in the past. You don’t have time to see that you are trading right into overhead selling. You don’t have time to notice that if prices break out of yesterday’s high, they will also probably take out a Ross hook. You don’t have time to see where prices are in relation to the trend line. You don’t have time to really grasp the overall trend, or the wave that is going counter trend. You don’t have time to really consider where you will place your stop. You don’t have time to read the market and to see what it might be telling you.
All of these things can be done ahead of time. If you do not do your homework, you will end up chasing markets in a desperate attempt to get into "the big move."
Apr 29, 2009
Achieving Trading Perfection
Achieving Trading Perfection - Trade quality, not quantity. Take the best of the best. Get the big picture. If you haven’t previously come across such advice, or if you have and are not following it, it is time that you take these words to heart. But how?
Trade selection and adequate planning go hand in hand. This is where most would-be professional traders miss the boat.
Much more money is made as a result of proper planning than from sitting and trading everything that comes along or "looks" good.
It’s difficult to fully understand why people think they have to trade so much. It’s difficult to truly grasp why people think that they have to take as many trades as they do.
Just the opposite is true. There is a correct approach to each and every trade. That is what achieving perfection is all about.
It all starts with proper management: planning, organizing, delegating, directing, and controlling.
These facets of management must be woven together into your trading; they do overlap.
Although planning is the major management function involved in achieving perfection, you can’t possibly plan well unless you are organized to do so.
You must have your tools at hand: your trading software, your data, the proper equipment. All of the rudiments for planning must be in place, which in itself is a part of organizing.
You must be physically fit when you plan: well nourished, properly exercised, well rested and mentally alert - all part of having your life organized, all part of achieving perfection as a trader.
To be a winning trader, you have to be among the best. There can be no middle ground. There are only winners and losers, and to be a winner you have to be a champion. And, just like any champion, you must have discipline, self-control, and a willingness to train, train, train.
There are no runners-up in trading, you either get the gold or you give the gold. Often, while others are busy going to parties or watching sports events, you are busy poring over charts, studying, thinking, planning. When others are listening to music or watching TV, you are busy practicing your trading, practicing trade selection, working hard to become a more astute trader.
Part of achieving perfection involves the diligent study of charts. The data, as presented on your screen and preserved as charts, are, for the most part, all you have for making trading decisions. They are a picture, a visualization of what is taking place in the reality of the market. Your job in achieving perfection and becoming an adequate trader is to picture and imagine in your mind what makes prices move and form the way they do. Ask yourself, "How does what I see in front of me relate to the supply and demand for the underlying?" Ask yourself, "Is what I am seeing on the chart even related to supply and demand, or is what I am seeing related to an engineered move by some insider or market mover?"
Supply and demand are not what makes prices move or fail to move most of the time. The sooner you realize that fact, the better off you will be. Markets are engineered, manipulated ¾ you need to know that.
But there’s more to a chart than merely price patterns. Reflected in the chart are the emotional reactions of human beings. Reactions to rumors and news; to national and world events; to government reports - these, too, are on the charts.
You might say that price movement, or the lack thereof, is the net effect of all the perceptions of all the traders who are participating in the market for a particular futures.
There is something else on the charts, something that too few take into account. That something is the manipulations from and by the insiders, the market movers, and by commercials holding large inventories of the underlying you are attempting to trade.
In achieving perfection as a trader, you must train yourself to look for evidence of any and all of these things as you study your charts. It is the cumulative action of all perceptions which causes patterns to form on a price chart.
You must learn to look for the truths in the markets. There are certain truths which are self-evident; they are always true. For instance, take the phenomenon of a breakout. When prices break out, no one can change the fact that they did break out. It is a fact and it is true. The breakout may turn out to be a "false" breakout, but nevertheless it is a breakout. As part of achieving perfection in your trade selection skills, you have to learn to tell which breakouts are most likely true breakouts, and which ones are most likely false. How can you know? By the price patterns on the chart.
And what about trend? Your job in achieving perfection as a trader is to master how to trade a trend. A trend is a trend, is a trend. It is a trend until the end, and part of your job is to know when a market is not trending.
The trend is the trend while it lasts. While a market is trending it is telling the truth. The trend can change, but the truth is the truth. If prices are rising, the trend is up. If prices are falling, the trend is down. The truth can be found in the trend. It is an immutable fact. You are to learn to make my money by trading with the trend. You are to learn what constitutes a trend. You have to learn to spot trends early so that you can make the most out of the market while it is trending. Your job in achieving perfection as a trader is to learn to recognize when a trend will most likely begin, and just as important, to learn to be even more adept at deciphering when a trend is ending.
In achieving perfection, you must learn to recognize "your" trade(s), and to take only "your" trades. Trade the formations and patterns that you can easily recognize and identify.
You must learn to trade using tips and tricks that you are shown and to accumulate and keep a collection of techniques that result in the selection of high probability trades.
How are you to do all this? Practice, practice, PRACTICE. Practice recognition of congestion areas. Practice recognition of high probability breakouts. Practice trend recognition. Practice and more practice. Just like anyone who wants to achieve perfection at anything, there must be total dedication, study, practice and more practice. You are to become a trading virtuoso. You are to practice, yet always realizing that you will never attain true perfection, that there is always room for improvement. There is usually a way to refine: ways that you can do things better, more efficiently, and with greater speed and finesse.
Trade selection and adequate planning go hand in hand. This is where most would-be professional traders miss the boat.
Much more money is made as a result of proper planning than from sitting and trading everything that comes along or "looks" good.
It’s difficult to fully understand why people think they have to trade so much. It’s difficult to truly grasp why people think that they have to take as many trades as they do.
Just the opposite is true. There is a correct approach to each and every trade. That is what achieving perfection is all about.
It all starts with proper management: planning, organizing, delegating, directing, and controlling.
These facets of management must be woven together into your trading; they do overlap.
Although planning is the major management function involved in achieving perfection, you can’t possibly plan well unless you are organized to do so.
You must have your tools at hand: your trading software, your data, the proper equipment. All of the rudiments for planning must be in place, which in itself is a part of organizing.
You must be physically fit when you plan: well nourished, properly exercised, well rested and mentally alert - all part of having your life organized, all part of achieving perfection as a trader.
To be a winning trader, you have to be among the best. There can be no middle ground. There are only winners and losers, and to be a winner you have to be a champion. And, just like any champion, you must have discipline, self-control, and a willingness to train, train, train.
There are no runners-up in trading, you either get the gold or you give the gold. Often, while others are busy going to parties or watching sports events, you are busy poring over charts, studying, thinking, planning. When others are listening to music or watching TV, you are busy practicing your trading, practicing trade selection, working hard to become a more astute trader.
Part of achieving perfection involves the diligent study of charts. The data, as presented on your screen and preserved as charts, are, for the most part, all you have for making trading decisions. They are a picture, a visualization of what is taking place in the reality of the market. Your job in achieving perfection and becoming an adequate trader is to picture and imagine in your mind what makes prices move and form the way they do. Ask yourself, "How does what I see in front of me relate to the supply and demand for the underlying?" Ask yourself, "Is what I am seeing on the chart even related to supply and demand, or is what I am seeing related to an engineered move by some insider or market mover?"
Supply and demand are not what makes prices move or fail to move most of the time. The sooner you realize that fact, the better off you will be. Markets are engineered, manipulated ¾ you need to know that.
But there’s more to a chart than merely price patterns. Reflected in the chart are the emotional reactions of human beings. Reactions to rumors and news; to national and world events; to government reports - these, too, are on the charts.
You might say that price movement, or the lack thereof, is the net effect of all the perceptions of all the traders who are participating in the market for a particular futures.
There is something else on the charts, something that too few take into account. That something is the manipulations from and by the insiders, the market movers, and by commercials holding large inventories of the underlying you are attempting to trade.
In achieving perfection as a trader, you must train yourself to look for evidence of any and all of these things as you study your charts. It is the cumulative action of all perceptions which causes patterns to form on a price chart.
You must learn to look for the truths in the markets. There are certain truths which are self-evident; they are always true. For instance, take the phenomenon of a breakout. When prices break out, no one can change the fact that they did break out. It is a fact and it is true. The breakout may turn out to be a "false" breakout, but nevertheless it is a breakout. As part of achieving perfection in your trade selection skills, you have to learn to tell which breakouts are most likely true breakouts, and which ones are most likely false. How can you know? By the price patterns on the chart.
And what about trend? Your job in achieving perfection as a trader is to master how to trade a trend. A trend is a trend, is a trend. It is a trend until the end, and part of your job is to know when a market is not trending.
The trend is the trend while it lasts. While a market is trending it is telling the truth. The trend can change, but the truth is the truth. If prices are rising, the trend is up. If prices are falling, the trend is down. The truth can be found in the trend. It is an immutable fact. You are to learn to make my money by trading with the trend. You are to learn what constitutes a trend. You have to learn to spot trends early so that you can make the most out of the market while it is trending. Your job in achieving perfection as a trader is to learn to recognize when a trend will most likely begin, and just as important, to learn to be even more adept at deciphering when a trend is ending.
In achieving perfection, you must learn to recognize "your" trade(s), and to take only "your" trades. Trade the formations and patterns that you can easily recognize and identify.
You must learn to trade using tips and tricks that you are shown and to accumulate and keep a collection of techniques that result in the selection of high probability trades.
How are you to do all this? Practice, practice, PRACTICE. Practice recognition of congestion areas. Practice recognition of high probability breakouts. Practice trend recognition. Practice and more practice. Just like anyone who wants to achieve perfection at anything, there must be total dedication, study, practice and more practice. You are to become a trading virtuoso. You are to practice, yet always realizing that you will never attain true perfection, that there is always room for improvement. There is usually a way to refine: ways that you can do things better, more efficiently, and with greater speed and finesse.
Using the 10 Day Moving Average of the VIX (Volatility Index) to time a Reversal in the the S&P 500
Investors can get an idea of when the market may reverse when the 10 Day Moving Average (MA) of the Volatility Index (VIX) becomes significantly stretched away from its 10 Day Moving Average (MA). A simple example is shown below which compares the 10 Day MA of the VIX to the S&P 500.
Notice when the VIX got stretched significantly away from its 10 Day MA (blue line) to the upside (points A) that the S&P 500 made a bottom (points B) and then reversed to the upside.
Thus keeping track of where the Volatility Index is in relation to its 10 Day Moving Average can give investors a clue to when the market may be getting close to a near term bottom and possible upside reversal.
Notice when the VIX got stretched significantly away from its 10 Day MA (blue line) to the upside (points A) that the S&P 500 made a bottom (points B) and then reversed to the upside.
Thus keeping track of where the Volatility Index is in relation to its 10 Day Moving Average can give investors a clue to when the market may be getting close to a near term bottom and possible upside reversal.
Apr 26, 2009
What is Forex Trading Exactly? Can I Make Money Out of It?
You've heard about it, your friends talked about it or maybe, you've traded in it but what is Forex exactly and how does it work? Read on to find out
Forex is an acronym for foreign exchange, a market where people exchange the currency of one country for the currency of another in order to do business internationally. Typical situations in which currency exchange is necessary include payments of imports and exports of purchases and the sale of goods or services between countries. Forex is also called the cash market or spot interbank market. The spot market means trading on the spot, at whatever the price is at the moment
Prior to 1994, the Forex retail interbank market for small individual speculative investors or traders was not available. A speculative investor, or speculative trader, is one which looks to make a profit on price movement in the market and is not looking to hold onto any currency long-term. But with the average minimum transaction size of $1,000,000, smaller traders were all bit excluded from participation in this market. Then in the late 1990s, retail market brokers (companies that facilitate the trades for speculative traders) were allowed to break up the large interbank units and offered individual traders the opportunity to participate in the Forex as we know it today.
Forex is considered the largest financial market in the world. The term market refers to a place where buyers and sellers are brought together to execute trading transactions. More then $1.5 trillion U.S dollars are traded daily on the Forex. By comparison $300 billion dollars is traded daily on the U.S Treasury bond market and $100 billon dollars is traded daily on the U.S stock market, for a total of $400 billion dollars per day. Forex trades nearly four times that volume daily, exceeding the daily combined activity of all the other financial markets
Forex has no physical locations - transactions are placed via the Internet or telephone – but is composed of approximately 4,500 international world banks and retail brokers. Individual traders wanting to profit by speculating on price changes can only access this market through Forex broker, such a I-TradeFX.com. It is a good practice of a speculative trader to only deal with Forex brokers that are regulated by the governmental bodies in their respective countries.
Forex is an acronym for foreign exchange, a market where people exchange the currency of one country for the currency of another in order to do business internationally. Typical situations in which currency exchange is necessary include payments of imports and exports of purchases and the sale of goods or services between countries. Forex is also called the cash market or spot interbank market. The spot market means trading on the spot, at whatever the price is at the moment
Prior to 1994, the Forex retail interbank market for small individual speculative investors or traders was not available. A speculative investor, or speculative trader, is one which looks to make a profit on price movement in the market and is not looking to hold onto any currency long-term. But with the average minimum transaction size of $1,000,000, smaller traders were all bit excluded from participation in this market. Then in the late 1990s, retail market brokers (companies that facilitate the trades for speculative traders) were allowed to break up the large interbank units and offered individual traders the opportunity to participate in the Forex as we know it today.
Forex is considered the largest financial market in the world. The term market refers to a place where buyers and sellers are brought together to execute trading transactions. More then $1.5 trillion U.S dollars are traded daily on the Forex. By comparison $300 billion dollars is traded daily on the U.S Treasury bond market and $100 billon dollars is traded daily on the U.S stock market, for a total of $400 billion dollars per day. Forex trades nearly four times that volume daily, exceeding the daily combined activity of all the other financial markets
Forex has no physical locations - transactions are placed via the Internet or telephone – but is composed of approximately 4,500 international world banks and retail brokers. Individual traders wanting to profit by speculating on price changes can only access this market through Forex broker, such a I-TradeFX.com. It is a good practice of a speculative trader to only deal with Forex brokers that are regulated by the governmental bodies in their respective countries.
Top 10 Tips to Trade Forex Successfully
There area number ofthings that the ace Forex traders in the world do in order to trade Forex successfully. Becoming a profitable Forex trader does not happen by accident. Quite surprisingly, profitable Forex trading does not need to be difficult if you follow some simple guidelines. What follows will be a list of those things which must be done, some must be done before you begin to trade Forex and some must be done after you begin to trade Forex.Decide Why You Want To Trade Forex -- It is important to understandwhy you wantto trade Forex in the first place. You might say that quite obviously everyone wants to trade Forex in order to make money. You would not be wrong in that assumption but different people will have different motivations in addition to making money. Some of these reasons may include: quitting your day job and trading Forex full time or earning a good living while traveling the world.All of the above are valid reasons as long as they are kept in perspective. For instance, it would be unrealistic to expect to earn a full-time living trading Forex after your first week of trading.Have Realistic Expectations --This is one of the most important things that you can do in order to trade Forex successfully. It's easy for any of us to find products with exaggerated claims showing unbelievable amounts of money after only trading for a short period of time. Many beginning traders fall into the trap of thinking that these exaggerated, atypical profit claims are the norm with Forex trading. As a result of this many beginning traders abandon perfectly good Forex trading strategies because they may compare the returns with unrealistic returns they see elsewhere.Have realistic expectations of your Forex trading and realize that much like Rome your Forex trading fortune will not be built in one day.Have Adequate Working Capital -- It is very inexpensive to open an account and begin to trade Forex. There are micro accounts available that can be opened for a minimum of $25. Forex mini accounts start at around a $400 minimum deposit level.It makes perfect sense to open up a smaller account while you are honing your ideas and trading strategies. If your plan is to trade for a living then quite obviously starting off with a $25 account isn't going to cut it. There are a number of factors you'll need to consider in order to determine how much is necessary to fund your account. Here are a few things which must be considered:You're trading profit goals -- If you're planning on generating $100,000 in Forex trading profits and your trading method can generate 100% return annually then you will need $100,000 in initial working capital.Maximum drawdown -- Your Forex trading strategies maximum drawdown must be factored in. Your maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-valley dip in equity that your trading system has historically experienced. Here's a quick example:If your trading strategy has a maximum historical drawdown of $25,000 you should not open a Forex trading account with only $25,000. The reason for this is that this leaves you absolutely no breathing room. If and when your $25,000 trading account experiences this level of drawdown you will no longer be able to trade. This means that you will not be able to take advantage of any trading opportunities after your drawdown level is reached.Have a Forex trading plan -- Every successful business creates a business plan before they open their doors for business. There is no reason that Forex trading should be any different. Planning is important in Forex trading because planning helps you to keep on track and minimize uncertainty. Your trading plan doesn't have to be complex for you to trade Forex effectively. Have a good Forex trading system/Forex strategy -- This may seem obvious, but you would be surprised how many people trade Forex on a gut feeling. There may be a few gifted traders who have an uncanny knack for choosing the right market direction. For the rest of us who wish to trade successfully, it's important that we use a good trading system already proven to yield positive results.Test Your Trading System On A demo Account/Micro Account -- Try hard to resist the sometimes overwhelming temptation to jump in and start trading with a large amount of real money. Practice and perfect your skills first using a Forex demo account. Your demo account will be your "acid test". If you can't make your demo account grow then it is unlikely that the trading methods you are using will make you money in a real-money account. It is recommended that you use a demo account to refine each new Forex trading strategy that you use. Remember, in Forex trading practice really does make perfect.Learn Forex Trading -- It may not be the most prudent thing to do to simply buy a Forex robot and let it start to trade for you. In the long run you will be a much more successful trader by learning to trade Forex yourself. Get your Forex education started by reading Forex books, taking a few Forex courses, and practicing what you've learned on a Forex demo account. Once you have a greate understanding of Forex trading then you may be able to successfully use a Forex robot to handle your trades.Trade Only With Risk Capital-- Risk capital is also referred to as "money you can afford to lose". This is money specifically set aside for speculation in the Forex market. Another way to look at this is that if you were to lose all the money in your Forex account that it will not affect your lifestyle in any way.Trading with money that you cannot afford to lose is also referred to as trading with "scared money". Scared money is money that you are afraid to lose and will agonize over even to the point of having sleepless nights. If you can not afford to lose money in your Forex trading account you are treading on dangerous ground. Keep in mind that even a great Forex trading strategy may not deliver the exact profit that you need at the exact time that you need it. Never Add To A Losing Trade -- This is an easy trap to fall into. None of us is thrilled about taking a loss on a trade. We have to realize that losing trades are a natural part of Forex trading and every single one of the most successful Forex traders in the world has had losing trades.New traders will often add another position to an already losing trade in order to "get a better average price". They believe that they will at least be able to break even when it goes in their desired direction. Unfortunately what often happens is that the market moves further and further against them. Now what was once a small manageable loss has become a large catastrophic loss.The moral of the story here is simple. To trade Forex profitable never add to a losing trade.Control Your Risk -- By controlling your risk you control your reward. Never trade a system if you don't know your risk level. Never enter a trade without setting a definite level to exit the trade if the market moves against you. Risk control will allow you to "stay in the game" by preserving capital by not allowing for needless, out-of-control losses. Let's look at an example.If we have a $5,000 Forex account and decide to risk $2,500 on each trade how many times can we lose? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the above example was one of poor risk control.Have Proper Trading Discipline -- A lot has been written about Forex trading psychology and trading discipline. Successful Forex traders know that it is absolutely crucial to trade in a disciplined fashion. Without trading discipline and the mindset to maintain your discipline all Forex trading tools will be useless to you. Discipline helps you to stay focused and stick to your trading system. Sticking with a good trading system helps you to profit and eventually create wealth. By keeping your emotions in check you will be able to trade forex without guesswork, anxiety, or frustration.We've covered some of the basic things you must do to trade Forex successfully. Each of these are important trading rules which continue to withstand the test of time. Refer to this list from time to time and apply the rules to your own trading. You will find that they will help keep you on the right path to successful Forex trading.
The Use of Currency Trading Pairs
If you plan to go into forex, one of the most important points you need to understand is how currency trading pairs work. Although you are free to experiment and sift through other currencies where you can possibly make a profit, pairs in currency trading are the basics where you will base your trading plans from. If you are new in the field of currency trading, you should definitely consider being an expert with the currency pairs before you explore other fields.
In forex, currency pairs work by relating their values against each other. Each pair is composed of a base currency and a quote currency. The base currency is the first among the pair which is the target currency that you wanted to buy. Meanwhile, the quote currency is the second among the pair which tells you how much of it do you need to buy the base currency or the first one. Using the USD to Euro conversion, a quote presented as USD/Euro=.067 simply means that you will need 0.067 Euros to be able to purchase one US dollar.
Working with Currency Trading Pairs
To be able to plot out your plan in the forex business, you will constantly need to consult your own currency pairs. Among the most popular trading pairs are the combinations of US dollars and Euros, US dollars and Japanese Yen, US Dollars and Swiss Franc. Most of the forex traders use US dollars as their quote currency since it is the most widely used currency in the world. The Euro, Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen are among the highest yielding and also most volatile base currencies in the trading game.
As a forex trader, it is your responsibility to keep track of currencies individually. In reality there really are no hard and fast rules about currency pairs. You are the one who gets to ultimately decide which of these pairs you plan to keep an eye on and develop. But it helps to have a separate track of these currencies individually so that if a raise occurs in each of them, you can easily form your pairs and make a sell or buy them at the soonest possible time. The thing about currency pairs is that they may not last as long as you would like them to. Sometimes, you need to make quick pair ups to keep ahead of the game.
Choosing the Best Currency Trading Pairs
As mentioned, there are actually no limits to which currencies must be paired against each other. What it takes is a watchful eye and keen observation to make sure that you have the right combination to trade in the currency market. But if you are a newbie and you are still trying to gain your momentum in the currency market, it will be good to stick with major currencies, such as dollars and euros, as your quote currency.
Although these currencies fluctuate as much as the others, they are also the more frequently used. These currencies will help you develop your own style when it comes to scouting the currency trading game since they are widely used. It is also a good idea to keep only two pairs at a time and gradually increase as you gain more confidence in buying and selling your existing currencies.
In forex, currency pairs work by relating their values against each other. Each pair is composed of a base currency and a quote currency. The base currency is the first among the pair which is the target currency that you wanted to buy. Meanwhile, the quote currency is the second among the pair which tells you how much of it do you need to buy the base currency or the first one. Using the USD to Euro conversion, a quote presented as USD/Euro=.067 simply means that you will need 0.067 Euros to be able to purchase one US dollar.
Working with Currency Trading Pairs
To be able to plot out your plan in the forex business, you will constantly need to consult your own currency pairs. Among the most popular trading pairs are the combinations of US dollars and Euros, US dollars and Japanese Yen, US Dollars and Swiss Franc. Most of the forex traders use US dollars as their quote currency since it is the most widely used currency in the world. The Euro, Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen are among the highest yielding and also most volatile base currencies in the trading game.
As a forex trader, it is your responsibility to keep track of currencies individually. In reality there really are no hard and fast rules about currency pairs. You are the one who gets to ultimately decide which of these pairs you plan to keep an eye on and develop. But it helps to have a separate track of these currencies individually so that if a raise occurs in each of them, you can easily form your pairs and make a sell or buy them at the soonest possible time. The thing about currency pairs is that they may not last as long as you would like them to. Sometimes, you need to make quick pair ups to keep ahead of the game.
Choosing the Best Currency Trading Pairs
As mentioned, there are actually no limits to which currencies must be paired against each other. What it takes is a watchful eye and keen observation to make sure that you have the right combination to trade in the currency market. But if you are a newbie and you are still trying to gain your momentum in the currency market, it will be good to stick with major currencies, such as dollars and euros, as your quote currency.
Although these currencies fluctuate as much as the others, they are also the more frequently used. These currencies will help you develop your own style when it comes to scouting the currency trading game since they are widely used. It is also a good idea to keep only two pairs at a time and gradually increase as you gain more confidence in buying and selling your existing currencies.
The Benefits of Forex Robots
Forex trading is an interesting and lucrative business opportunity. However being a forex trader often demands a lot of patience and hard work. You need to sit hours in front of the computer trying to take the best decision. This is not an easy task as it requires a lot of patience. Moreover you are never certain about the best result. Such uncertainty often make many traders unsuccessful and the look for an optimum solution to achieve success in the forex business. Are you one such disgruntled trader? Then read on as we share some great tips…
Anyone who has tried his or her fortune in the Forex will definitely acknowledge the importance of Forex trading signals and its role in being instrumental in determining your success in trade. Often you need to wait for hours to avail the best opportunity; unfortunately most of the times you don’t even get such an opportunity at all.
Many therefore, see it as the worst part of the Forex trading. Are you one such individual who is plagued by the whimsical nature of the forex trading signals? Then the Forex trading robot can come to your aid. With this system, you now need not sit in front of the computer for hours trying to hunt a suitable opportunity. The robot will do this job for y0ou leaving you with ample time to relax.
The basic function of the Forex robot is that when the best time arises the system does the trading on your behalf. The automated machine will sell and buy when it senses the optimum chance. Moreover the most amazing fact is that you need not be present there at the time of the transaction. The robot functions on the basis of the automated Forex trading software. The system is programmed by the expert trader and it generates the sell and buy signals on its own.
This system thus comes as a boon to the forex traders. First of all, it works automatically thus relieving you of stress and hard work. At the same time, you need not be afraid of losing any opportunity. The robot will observe the market 24 hours a day, and take the best decisions for you. Another big advantage of this Fx Trading robot is its precision. After all, it is a machine and there is hardly any scope of it taking an emotional decision.
Well, many of you would argue that intuitions are important for success; nonetheless statistics reveal that as far as forex trading is concerned in most cases emotions have proved fatal in terms of successful transaction. As far as the robot is concerned, it will look for certain criteria before it takes a tradition decision. Whenever they will be met, it will sell or buy. There is nothing else that can stop it from executing the deal. Certainly, a transaction made on the basis of logic has a firmer ground than a move taken on an emotional basis.
Thus if you are a forex trader then automated Forex trading could work wonders for you. It will allow you to take sound decisions based on logic and it will be just a matter of time before you reach the pinnacle of success.
Anyone who has tried his or her fortune in the Forex will definitely acknowledge the importance of Forex trading signals and its role in being instrumental in determining your success in trade. Often you need to wait for hours to avail the best opportunity; unfortunately most of the times you don’t even get such an opportunity at all.
Many therefore, see it as the worst part of the Forex trading. Are you one such individual who is plagued by the whimsical nature of the forex trading signals? Then the Forex trading robot can come to your aid. With this system, you now need not sit in front of the computer for hours trying to hunt a suitable opportunity. The robot will do this job for y0ou leaving you with ample time to relax.
The basic function of the Forex robot is that when the best time arises the system does the trading on your behalf. The automated machine will sell and buy when it senses the optimum chance. Moreover the most amazing fact is that you need not be present there at the time of the transaction. The robot functions on the basis of the automated Forex trading software. The system is programmed by the expert trader and it generates the sell and buy signals on its own.
This system thus comes as a boon to the forex traders. First of all, it works automatically thus relieving you of stress and hard work. At the same time, you need not be afraid of losing any opportunity. The robot will observe the market 24 hours a day, and take the best decisions for you. Another big advantage of this Fx Trading robot is its precision. After all, it is a machine and there is hardly any scope of it taking an emotional decision.
Well, many of you would argue that intuitions are important for success; nonetheless statistics reveal that as far as forex trading is concerned in most cases emotions have proved fatal in terms of successful transaction. As far as the robot is concerned, it will look for certain criteria before it takes a tradition decision. Whenever they will be met, it will sell or buy. There is nothing else that can stop it from executing the deal. Certainly, a transaction made on the basis of logic has a firmer ground than a move taken on an emotional basis.
Thus if you are a forex trader then automated Forex trading could work wonders for you. It will allow you to take sound decisions based on logic and it will be just a matter of time before you reach the pinnacle of success.
Choose the correct Forex Trading Systems for success in the markets!
In a forex market, investors buy and sell currencies belonging to different countries. The main aim is to buy currency that brings profit when selling it. It is essential that you learn to trade in forex market with a profitable method. Forex trading is indeed a profitable income opportunity but for that, you need to be original and innovative in this business. If you are a newcomer in Forex, you should use learning tools that will help you to get started.
You can definitely generate a 5-figure income from the comforts of your home, if you choose the right trading system. You have to use trading strategies that will make you successful. You should learn to profit systematically and consistently, thereby helping you to generate incredible wealth. Forex is also an attractive investment opportunity as the currencies are traded often without any commissions
Before you start trading Forex, you need to open a forex account, which is not at all difficult.
This can be done by choosing the type of account, registering the account and then activating it. This is necessary to get access to this market. There are a variety of ways of opening Forex accounts. The best way to open the account in your name. Once you know the basics of Forex trading, it will help you to determine the right online platform.
An important step is to choose a forex broker. It can be a daunting task. Check out their customer service. You need to find a forex broker that provides 24 hrs of customer service. He should also be responsive to all your questions. You should be comfortable and ensure that all your needs are addressed adequately. The Forex broker that you select must be regulated. The person must be registered or else there is every chance that you will loose your money.
A reputable forex broker always offers easy to use demo trading platform. The demo software should give a clear idea to you about the live trading platform. The person should allow you to place orders online easily. Most importantly, carefully go through the broker's policies. Every broker has his own rules so make sure that the deal you make is profitable.
Unlike domestic stock markets, in forex trading business hours are open 24 hrs a day. Since each country trades on FX market, it is open all day. The forex market has superior liquidity than stock market. You will always find buyers and traders with whom you can trade with. Major currencies help to ensure price stability. This is the most satisfying and convincing advantage of forex trading.
If you ask any successful forex trader the key to make money in Forex then he would definitely recommend to choose a proper forex trading system. Professional forex traders have a solid and tested forex trading system. Use a system that has been successful for a couple of years.
Before you venture into this market, do Forex analysis and consult your friends who have invested in Forex.
You can definitely generate a 5-figure income from the comforts of your home, if you choose the right trading system. You have to use trading strategies that will make you successful. You should learn to profit systematically and consistently, thereby helping you to generate incredible wealth. Forex is also an attractive investment opportunity as the currencies are traded often without any commissions
Before you start trading Forex, you need to open a forex account, which is not at all difficult.
This can be done by choosing the type of account, registering the account and then activating it. This is necessary to get access to this market. There are a variety of ways of opening Forex accounts. The best way to open the account in your name. Once you know the basics of Forex trading, it will help you to determine the right online platform.
An important step is to choose a forex broker. It can be a daunting task. Check out their customer service. You need to find a forex broker that provides 24 hrs of customer service. He should also be responsive to all your questions. You should be comfortable and ensure that all your needs are addressed adequately. The Forex broker that you select must be regulated. The person must be registered or else there is every chance that you will loose your money.
A reputable forex broker always offers easy to use demo trading platform. The demo software should give a clear idea to you about the live trading platform. The person should allow you to place orders online easily. Most importantly, carefully go through the broker's policies. Every broker has his own rules so make sure that the deal you make is profitable.
Unlike domestic stock markets, in forex trading business hours are open 24 hrs a day. Since each country trades on FX market, it is open all day. The forex market has superior liquidity than stock market. You will always find buyers and traders with whom you can trade with. Major currencies help to ensure price stability. This is the most satisfying and convincing advantage of forex trading.
If you ask any successful forex trader the key to make money in Forex then he would definitely recommend to choose a proper forex trading system. Professional forex traders have a solid and tested forex trading system. Use a system that has been successful for a couple of years.
Before you venture into this market, do Forex analysis and consult your friends who have invested in Forex.
Apr 25, 2009
FX Trading Systems Which Work
Summary
1. Trading systems
2. Managing your funds
3. Trader Psychology
4. Summary
There are many different methods, systems and strategies which traders, “newbies” and old “pro’s”, apply to the market to make a profit from the movements in the prices. Each trader will assert that his or her methods are the best and the most profitable, but the truth is that each trading system has its strengths and weaknesses. The real keys to making money from the Forex market are the following:
1. Having and clear and simple trading system, and applying it consistently
2. Managing the funds you are trading with tight disciplines
3. Taking control of your psychology
This article will examine each of these three keys separately and propose some simple guidelines for traders to follow to avoid being trapped by the market during the inevitable periods of volatility which occur daily.
1. Trading systems
There are essentially two types of systems which traders employ. These are:
a. Price following systems
b. Price prediction systems
Let’s examine each one briefly.
Price following systems
These are systems which rely on momentum indicators, oscillators and averaging methods to simply follow the market in the direction in which it is moving. The simplest of these is to find a suitable moving average (MA) and trade in the direction the MA is pointing, with the price on the correct side of that average.
One can add to that a whole variety of other indicators such as MACD, Stochastics, RSI and Bollinger Bands etc. One charting package I use has 29 different indicators, leading to an overload of endless possible combinations to use. Furthermore, there are about 20 different possible time frames to study. Its not hard to see why traders end up with the commonly know “paralysis of analysis” which is recognized by the comatose mouse hand and glazed eyes of someone sitting in front of the screen for 12 hours without taking a trade.
They key is to keep it simple. Decide on the time from you choose to trade from (scalpers may prefer 5 minute or 15 minute charts, whereas session/day traders may prefer 1 hour, 4 hour of day charts) and look for a very simple system which combines no more than 2 or 3 indicators. Such systems may also incorporate simple trend line studies, with the trade direction following the prevailing straight line trend.
When the signals are given by your system, take your trades confidently and consistently. Do not abandon your method and start searching for another after the first loss.
Price Prediction systems
These are systems which are generally longer term systems, applied to session, day or longer periods. They involve deciding the overall direction of the currency pair over a longer time frame and then trading a simple “buy on dips” or “sell on rallies” approach, depending on the direction you have decided on. There are various tools to help the strategy trader, such as horizontal lines, trend lines, Fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages and so on. These will help to a) identify the direction of trade, b) identify a logical entry point and c) identify a logical exit point. These trades can then be programmed into the dealing software and left to take care of themselves, allowing the trader spend his time doing other things. This form of trading requires more skill and experience, but this can be learned with time and practice.
Essentially, price following systems generally tend to be shorter term “scalping” type systems, which involve screen watching for a large part of each day. Price prediction systems tend to involve strategies lasting 8 hours up to several days and allow the trader to get away from the screen and enjoy more free time.
Everyone has their preference but I have found from my own experience and observations that intense screen watching cannot be sustained for very long by most traders, before burning out after several weeks or months. You can recognize these traders immediately by their bagged eyes, short tempers and lack of social skills.
2. Managing your funds
Whilst most traders can invent or learn a reasonable trading system to suit their styles of trading, many cannot manage their account safely enough to prevent large losses and the dreaded margin call. Even the some best traders in the World suffer from temporary lack of sanity in this area (including “yours truly”). Interesting case histories are described, for example, in Jack Schwager’s book “Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders”
There are three simple rules which can be applied here:
a) Never leverage over 10:1 and as your account grows larger, reduce this to below 5:1
b) Never risk more than 5% of your equity on a given day, and as your account grows, reduce this to less than 2%
c) Never take a trade where you are risking more than 50% of the projected gains from the trade with your stop loss. In other words, the Win/Lose ratio (profit target in pips/stop loss in pips) should be 2:1 or higher.
Following these simple rules, even with a half baked trading system, will ensure that you can lose 2 out of every 3 trades and still break even on your account.
3. Trader Psychology
All humans are subject to two (often opposing) forces – the mind and the emotions. The key to successful trading psychology is to prevent your emotions from dominating your mind.
The emotions you will experience will fluctuate wildly from fear to greed, to self-doubt and elation. These are all the enemy of the trader and need to be tempered by clear, objective and logical thinking.
Work out your trading strategy based on your previously defined system. Apply the system with safe account management rules, and shut out the emotional noise which will attempt to convince you to close early, over leverage, risk too much, risk too little etc.
4. Summary
It is clear that the best traders aim for small and consistent gains without seeking “the latest” system to produce enormous profits. There simply are no such systems which work reliably day in and day out. Keep your money management tight and keep your emotions in check and you should succeed.
Finally – it is well worth the money spent on good education. Attend a seminar by a truly active trader and teacher, and buy lots of books on the subject. Do not think you can go from “zero to hero” in the FX market without investing time, effort and money in learning from experienced players. The money you might save initially will probably be lost many times over as the market works you over later.
1. Trading systems
2. Managing your funds
3. Trader Psychology
4. Summary
There are many different methods, systems and strategies which traders, “newbies” and old “pro’s”, apply to the market to make a profit from the movements in the prices. Each trader will assert that his or her methods are the best and the most profitable, but the truth is that each trading system has its strengths and weaknesses. The real keys to making money from the Forex market are the following:
1. Having and clear and simple trading system, and applying it consistently
2. Managing the funds you are trading with tight disciplines
3. Taking control of your psychology
This article will examine each of these three keys separately and propose some simple guidelines for traders to follow to avoid being trapped by the market during the inevitable periods of volatility which occur daily.
1. Trading systems
There are essentially two types of systems which traders employ. These are:
a. Price following systems
b. Price prediction systems
Let’s examine each one briefly.
Price following systems
These are systems which rely on momentum indicators, oscillators and averaging methods to simply follow the market in the direction in which it is moving. The simplest of these is to find a suitable moving average (MA) and trade in the direction the MA is pointing, with the price on the correct side of that average.
One can add to that a whole variety of other indicators such as MACD, Stochastics, RSI and Bollinger Bands etc. One charting package I use has 29 different indicators, leading to an overload of endless possible combinations to use. Furthermore, there are about 20 different possible time frames to study. Its not hard to see why traders end up with the commonly know “paralysis of analysis” which is recognized by the comatose mouse hand and glazed eyes of someone sitting in front of the screen for 12 hours without taking a trade.
They key is to keep it simple. Decide on the time from you choose to trade from (scalpers may prefer 5 minute or 15 minute charts, whereas session/day traders may prefer 1 hour, 4 hour of day charts) and look for a very simple system which combines no more than 2 or 3 indicators. Such systems may also incorporate simple trend line studies, with the trade direction following the prevailing straight line trend.
When the signals are given by your system, take your trades confidently and consistently. Do not abandon your method and start searching for another after the first loss.
Price Prediction systems
These are systems which are generally longer term systems, applied to session, day or longer periods. They involve deciding the overall direction of the currency pair over a longer time frame and then trading a simple “buy on dips” or “sell on rallies” approach, depending on the direction you have decided on. There are various tools to help the strategy trader, such as horizontal lines, trend lines, Fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages and so on. These will help to a) identify the direction of trade, b) identify a logical entry point and c) identify a logical exit point. These trades can then be programmed into the dealing software and left to take care of themselves, allowing the trader spend his time doing other things. This form of trading requires more skill and experience, but this can be learned with time and practice.
Essentially, price following systems generally tend to be shorter term “scalping” type systems, which involve screen watching for a large part of each day. Price prediction systems tend to involve strategies lasting 8 hours up to several days and allow the trader to get away from the screen and enjoy more free time.
Everyone has their preference but I have found from my own experience and observations that intense screen watching cannot be sustained for very long by most traders, before burning out after several weeks or months. You can recognize these traders immediately by their bagged eyes, short tempers and lack of social skills.
2. Managing your funds
Whilst most traders can invent or learn a reasonable trading system to suit their styles of trading, many cannot manage their account safely enough to prevent large losses and the dreaded margin call. Even the some best traders in the World suffer from temporary lack of sanity in this area (including “yours truly”). Interesting case histories are described, for example, in Jack Schwager’s book “Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders”
There are three simple rules which can be applied here:
a) Never leverage over 10:1 and as your account grows larger, reduce this to below 5:1
b) Never risk more than 5% of your equity on a given day, and as your account grows, reduce this to less than 2%
c) Never take a trade where you are risking more than 50% of the projected gains from the trade with your stop loss. In other words, the Win/Lose ratio (profit target in pips/stop loss in pips) should be 2:1 or higher.
Following these simple rules, even with a half baked trading system, will ensure that you can lose 2 out of every 3 trades and still break even on your account.
3. Trader Psychology
All humans are subject to two (often opposing) forces – the mind and the emotions. The key to successful trading psychology is to prevent your emotions from dominating your mind.
The emotions you will experience will fluctuate wildly from fear to greed, to self-doubt and elation. These are all the enemy of the trader and need to be tempered by clear, objective and logical thinking.
Work out your trading strategy based on your previously defined system. Apply the system with safe account management rules, and shut out the emotional noise which will attempt to convince you to close early, over leverage, risk too much, risk too little etc.
4. Summary
It is clear that the best traders aim for small and consistent gains without seeking “the latest” system to produce enormous profits. There simply are no such systems which work reliably day in and day out. Keep your money management tight and keep your emotions in check and you should succeed.
Finally – it is well worth the money spent on good education. Attend a seminar by a truly active trader and teacher, and buy lots of books on the subject. Do not think you can go from “zero to hero” in the FX market without investing time, effort and money in learning from experienced players. The money you might save initially will probably be lost many times over as the market works you over later.
The Psychology of the Individual
Summary
1. Taking responsibility of your capital
2. Cut your losses early and let your Profits Run
3. Discipline
4. Too much information
5. Do not marry your trades
6. Do not bet the farm
1. Taking responsibility of your capital
It is interesting how many people are happy to place their savings and funds in other peoples hands, accept the losses as its easier to blame someone else than to take responsibility of those funds ourselves.
The first step as an individual is believing in yourself and your own abilities. One of the most startling discoveries when you start trading or may have observed from the stock market is how many experts get it so wrong so often. This is a real confidence booster when you begin to understand that with a solid background and knowledge, discipline and a well defined trading plan that you will often outperform many professionals.
You will be in a market place that moves several times faster than any other market and with leverage, the rewards and losses compound many times. The best way to overcome the thought of using your own money and the volumes you will be trading is to forget about money and talk in terms of points. So rather than calculate your profit and losses in terms of dollars talk in terms of gains and losses in points. If you adopt this at a very early stage it will feel the same if you are trading a demo, a mini or 10 contacts of a full account.
Every trader that any member of Team Forex knows talks in terms of gains and losses in points. We don’t refer to the money as the bench mark of our own performance. We equate to other traders in the terms or losses and gains in points, and measure our performance against this.
When trading a demo account most people do very well. They trade without fear. As soon as its real money, even on mini account they suddenly find themselves trading in a manner where they miss many opportunities and accumulate many losses. They quite simply loose their nerve and give into fear and greed. This can happen also when you may go from a mini account to a full account or from trading single contracts to trading multiple contracts.
Try and trade without the thought of how much money you may gain or loose. Trade thinking of points, no matter how many contracts you are trading or even if you are trading a demo account.
2. Cut your losses early and let your Profits Run
This simple concept is one of the most difficult to implement and is the cause of most traders demise. Most traders violate their predetermined plan and take their profits before reaching their profit target because they feel uncomfortable sitting on a profitable position. These same people will easily sit on losing positions, allowing the market to move against them for hundreds of points in hopes that the market will come back. In addition, traders who have had their stops hit a few times only to see the market go back in their favor once they are out, are quick to remove stops from their trading on the belief that this will always be the case. Stops are there to be hit, and to stop you from losing more then a predetermined amount! The mistaken belief is that every trade should be profitable. If you can get 3 out of 6 trades to be profitable then you are doing well. How then do you make money with only half of your trades being winners? You simply allow your profits on the winners to run and make sure that your losses are minimal.
Another good strategy is to move stop losses (the point the trade will be sold if it goes the wrong way) behind the trade to a level where a pull back can be accommodated but a reversal will lock in at least some profit.
3. Discipline
Trade with a disciplined Plan. The problem with many traders is that they take shopping more seriously then trading. The average shopper would not spend $400 without serious research and examination of the product he is about to purchase, yet the average trader would make a trade that could easily cost him $400 based on little more than a “feeling” or “hunch.” Be sure that you have a plan in place before you start to trade. The plan must include stop and limit levels for the trade, as your analysis should encompass the expected downside as well as the expected upside.
4. Too much information
As with many endeavors it is important to keep your trading simple. Many traders start out with a simple strategy that is successful but find themselves chopping and changing trying to find a better system. They also allow themselves to be influenced by other opinions and too much fundamentals. It is not too different from going to a race track where everyone has a sure thing or the information available becomes so confusing you can no longer see the wood from the trees. Trading the stock market is often similar in this regard. A good exercise is to teach a child or teenager a simple trading strategy or set of rules to follow and allow them to trade a demo account. Many traders who have done this have been surprised that their children can actually trade well, consistently and often with spectacular results. The lesson is that they don’t stray from the rules and are not influenced by the media or fundamentals. Many traders pay no attention to fundamentals at all and trade successfully. The rule here is to keep it simple…don’t allow yourself to become confused with too much information and if you’re not sure or not in the right emotional frame of mind, don’t trade.
5. Do not marry your trades
The reason trading with a plan is so important is because most objective analysis is done before the trade is executed. Once a trader is in a position they tend to analyze the market differently in the “hopes” that the market will move in a favorable direction rather than objectively looking at the changing factors that may have turned against your original analysis. This is especially true of losses. Traders with a losing position tend to marry their position, which causes them to disregard the fact that all signs point towards continued losses. Don’t take more trades in the hope that the market will turn in your favour; it will only accelerate your losses.
6. Do not bet the farm
Do not over trade. One of the most common mistakes that traders make is leveraging their account too high by trading much larger sizes than their account should prudently trade. Leverage is a double-edged sword. Just because one lot (100,000 units) of currency only requires $1000 as a minimum margin deposit, it does not mean that a trader with $5000 in his account should be able to trade 5 lots. One lot is $100,000 and should be treated as a $100,000 investment and not the $1000 put up as margin. Most traders analyze the charts correctly and place sensible trades, yet they tend to over leverage themselves. As a consequence of this, they are often forced to exit a position at the wrong time. A good rule of thumb is to trade with 1-10 leverage or never use more than 5% of your account at any given time. Trading currencies is not easy. (if it was, everyone would be a millionaire!)
1. Taking responsibility of your capital
2. Cut your losses early and let your Profits Run
3. Discipline
4. Too much information
5. Do not marry your trades
6. Do not bet the farm
1. Taking responsibility of your capital
It is interesting how many people are happy to place their savings and funds in other peoples hands, accept the losses as its easier to blame someone else than to take responsibility of those funds ourselves.
The first step as an individual is believing in yourself and your own abilities. One of the most startling discoveries when you start trading or may have observed from the stock market is how many experts get it so wrong so often. This is a real confidence booster when you begin to understand that with a solid background and knowledge, discipline and a well defined trading plan that you will often outperform many professionals.
You will be in a market place that moves several times faster than any other market and with leverage, the rewards and losses compound many times. The best way to overcome the thought of using your own money and the volumes you will be trading is to forget about money and talk in terms of points. So rather than calculate your profit and losses in terms of dollars talk in terms of gains and losses in points. If you adopt this at a very early stage it will feel the same if you are trading a demo, a mini or 10 contacts of a full account.
Every trader that any member of Team Forex knows talks in terms of gains and losses in points. We don’t refer to the money as the bench mark of our own performance. We equate to other traders in the terms or losses and gains in points, and measure our performance against this.
When trading a demo account most people do very well. They trade without fear. As soon as its real money, even on mini account they suddenly find themselves trading in a manner where they miss many opportunities and accumulate many losses. They quite simply loose their nerve and give into fear and greed. This can happen also when you may go from a mini account to a full account or from trading single contracts to trading multiple contracts.
Try and trade without the thought of how much money you may gain or loose. Trade thinking of points, no matter how many contracts you are trading or even if you are trading a demo account.
2. Cut your losses early and let your Profits Run
This simple concept is one of the most difficult to implement and is the cause of most traders demise. Most traders violate their predetermined plan and take their profits before reaching their profit target because they feel uncomfortable sitting on a profitable position. These same people will easily sit on losing positions, allowing the market to move against them for hundreds of points in hopes that the market will come back. In addition, traders who have had their stops hit a few times only to see the market go back in their favor once they are out, are quick to remove stops from their trading on the belief that this will always be the case. Stops are there to be hit, and to stop you from losing more then a predetermined amount! The mistaken belief is that every trade should be profitable. If you can get 3 out of 6 trades to be profitable then you are doing well. How then do you make money with only half of your trades being winners? You simply allow your profits on the winners to run and make sure that your losses are minimal.
Another good strategy is to move stop losses (the point the trade will be sold if it goes the wrong way) behind the trade to a level where a pull back can be accommodated but a reversal will lock in at least some profit.
3. Discipline
Trade with a disciplined Plan. The problem with many traders is that they take shopping more seriously then trading. The average shopper would not spend $400 without serious research and examination of the product he is about to purchase, yet the average trader would make a trade that could easily cost him $400 based on little more than a “feeling” or “hunch.” Be sure that you have a plan in place before you start to trade. The plan must include stop and limit levels for the trade, as your analysis should encompass the expected downside as well as the expected upside.
4. Too much information
As with many endeavors it is important to keep your trading simple. Many traders start out with a simple strategy that is successful but find themselves chopping and changing trying to find a better system. They also allow themselves to be influenced by other opinions and too much fundamentals. It is not too different from going to a race track where everyone has a sure thing or the information available becomes so confusing you can no longer see the wood from the trees. Trading the stock market is often similar in this regard. A good exercise is to teach a child or teenager a simple trading strategy or set of rules to follow and allow them to trade a demo account. Many traders who have done this have been surprised that their children can actually trade well, consistently and often with spectacular results. The lesson is that they don’t stray from the rules and are not influenced by the media or fundamentals. Many traders pay no attention to fundamentals at all and trade successfully. The rule here is to keep it simple…don’t allow yourself to become confused with too much information and if you’re not sure or not in the right emotional frame of mind, don’t trade.
5. Do not marry your trades
The reason trading with a plan is so important is because most objective analysis is done before the trade is executed. Once a trader is in a position they tend to analyze the market differently in the “hopes” that the market will move in a favorable direction rather than objectively looking at the changing factors that may have turned against your original analysis. This is especially true of losses. Traders with a losing position tend to marry their position, which causes them to disregard the fact that all signs point towards continued losses. Don’t take more trades in the hope that the market will turn in your favour; it will only accelerate your losses.
6. Do not bet the farm
Do not over trade. One of the most common mistakes that traders make is leveraging their account too high by trading much larger sizes than their account should prudently trade. Leverage is a double-edged sword. Just because one lot (100,000 units) of currency only requires $1000 as a minimum margin deposit, it does not mean that a trader with $5000 in his account should be able to trade 5 lots. One lot is $100,000 and should be treated as a $100,000 investment and not the $1000 put up as margin. Most traders analyze the charts correctly and place sensible trades, yet they tend to over leverage themselves. As a consequence of this, they are often forced to exit a position at the wrong time. A good rule of thumb is to trade with 1-10 leverage or never use more than 5% of your account at any given time. Trading currencies is not easy. (if it was, everyone would be a millionaire!)
Disgruntled Trading -Trading Plans
The following situation happens quite often to many traders. Look it over and see if it has been happening to you:
You have been faithfully following your trading plan and the rules you’ve set for trading. By following them you are now in a trade that doesn’t look so good. At the same time, by following your trading plan, you see that you’ve missed a beautiful move in a different market, one that could have made you a lot of money.
You are in a bad trade and you’ve missed out on a great trade. You become disgruntled. You think to yourself that your trading plan must not be so great. You think there must be a better methodology that you should use that will prevent this from happening. You think to yourself, "Yes! That’s it, I’ll change the way I do things." So you create a new rule or modify an old one so that such a rule would have let you capture the trade you missed and avoid the one you took. Have you been making this mistake?
Here’s another way it can happen: You are in a trade, and your rules cause you to be stopped out with little or no profit. Shortly after you exit the trade according to plan, prices take off and move to where, had you stayed in, you would have made substantial profits. The move leaves you sitting there thinking you are stupid. You reason that there must be something wrong with the way you do things.
Your rules, your plan, or both must not be right. So you change what you are doing, or make a new rule so that the next time this happens, you won’t be left behind.
You have just abandoned all of the hard work you’ve previously done that enabled you to successfully trade futures. You’ve abandoned your education and learning. You’ve abandoned the wisdom that will enable you to be consistently successful as a trader. You’ve just started trading history, and you are supposed to be trading on the future movement of prices. You are trading what happened, not what will happen. By not being willing to be left behind, you are setting yourself up for being left out.
If you’ve been having thoughts, or have been acting as we’ve just described, you have a terrible problem with greed. Why? Because greed can never get enough. You can’t satisfy greed. Greed wants more, and yet more.
Not every trade is your trade. Not every trade has to work out for you. You have to be satisfied with getting a reasonable share of trades that fit your description of a good trade. Some of those trades will turn out to be great trades, others are good trades, and a certain percentage of your trades will be bad. There’s no way around it.
Not every good trade will turn into a great trade. When you enter a trade according to your rules and trading plan, you have no idea whether or not it will turn out to be a good trade, much less a great trade. The reality of trading is that, try as you might, you cannot know the future.
Whenever we miss a big move and then try to find some pattern, indicator, rationale, or modification to make to what we are doing so that the next time we will not miss the "big" move, it is a part of the hunt for something magic ¾ a continuation of our quest for the holy grail of trading.
What a terrible mistake to allow yourself to make. Winning as a trader consists of making some small profits and some larger profits on a regular basis. Obviously, there will be some losses. We regularly want to keep losses small, but there are times when a loss will get away from us and turn out to be bigger than desired.
If adversity causes you to become disgruntled, then you really need to examine your thinking and your approach to trading. Your trading plan must allow for disappointment and loss.
You’ve got to believe in what you are doing and be able to trade from the knowledge that when you follow your rules and your plan, you will make money from your trading.
When you become disgruntled and begin to change your plan, your rules, or both, you are setting yourself up for almost certain failure and the worst thing that can happen to a trader ¾ you will lose the courage of your convictions. Without it you cannot trade with any level of confidence.
This is why we encourage you to write out the reasons and rationale for every trade you make, even if you have to do it after you have completed the trade. You must develop a keen recognition of the trades that are your trades. Write out your trading plan every day and for every trade you intend to make. If you did not have time to plan every trade, be sure to review those you did make without pre-planning. Then you can go back over your trading and be able to see why and when you are successful.
Reminder: Here are some steps to take before the market opens.
· View major formations on the charts of those futures you intend to trade. View potential congestion areas, get the big picture from the longer term charts.
· Write down all potential entries as you see them on the chart.
You need to go through this exercise every day that you trade. This takes discipline. However, doing so will help you develop the kinds of habits that will mold you into a great trader.
If you are too busy to be disciplined, then you are too busy to trade. If you don’t discipline yourself, you will soon disappear from the trading scene.
You have been faithfully following your trading plan and the rules you’ve set for trading. By following them you are now in a trade that doesn’t look so good. At the same time, by following your trading plan, you see that you’ve missed a beautiful move in a different market, one that could have made you a lot of money.
You are in a bad trade and you’ve missed out on a great trade. You become disgruntled. You think to yourself that your trading plan must not be so great. You think there must be a better methodology that you should use that will prevent this from happening. You think to yourself, "Yes! That’s it, I’ll change the way I do things." So you create a new rule or modify an old one so that such a rule would have let you capture the trade you missed and avoid the one you took. Have you been making this mistake?
Here’s another way it can happen: You are in a trade, and your rules cause you to be stopped out with little or no profit. Shortly after you exit the trade according to plan, prices take off and move to where, had you stayed in, you would have made substantial profits. The move leaves you sitting there thinking you are stupid. You reason that there must be something wrong with the way you do things.
Your rules, your plan, or both must not be right. So you change what you are doing, or make a new rule so that the next time this happens, you won’t be left behind.
You have just abandoned all of the hard work you’ve previously done that enabled you to successfully trade futures. You’ve abandoned your education and learning. You’ve abandoned the wisdom that will enable you to be consistently successful as a trader. You’ve just started trading history, and you are supposed to be trading on the future movement of prices. You are trading what happened, not what will happen. By not being willing to be left behind, you are setting yourself up for being left out.
If you’ve been having thoughts, or have been acting as we’ve just described, you have a terrible problem with greed. Why? Because greed can never get enough. You can’t satisfy greed. Greed wants more, and yet more.
Not every trade is your trade. Not every trade has to work out for you. You have to be satisfied with getting a reasonable share of trades that fit your description of a good trade. Some of those trades will turn out to be great trades, others are good trades, and a certain percentage of your trades will be bad. There’s no way around it.
Not every good trade will turn into a great trade. When you enter a trade according to your rules and trading plan, you have no idea whether or not it will turn out to be a good trade, much less a great trade. The reality of trading is that, try as you might, you cannot know the future.
Whenever we miss a big move and then try to find some pattern, indicator, rationale, or modification to make to what we are doing so that the next time we will not miss the "big" move, it is a part of the hunt for something magic ¾ a continuation of our quest for the holy grail of trading.
What a terrible mistake to allow yourself to make. Winning as a trader consists of making some small profits and some larger profits on a regular basis. Obviously, there will be some losses. We regularly want to keep losses small, but there are times when a loss will get away from us and turn out to be bigger than desired.
If adversity causes you to become disgruntled, then you really need to examine your thinking and your approach to trading. Your trading plan must allow for disappointment and loss.
You’ve got to believe in what you are doing and be able to trade from the knowledge that when you follow your rules and your plan, you will make money from your trading.
When you become disgruntled and begin to change your plan, your rules, or both, you are setting yourself up for almost certain failure and the worst thing that can happen to a trader ¾ you will lose the courage of your convictions. Without it you cannot trade with any level of confidence.
This is why we encourage you to write out the reasons and rationale for every trade you make, even if you have to do it after you have completed the trade. You must develop a keen recognition of the trades that are your trades. Write out your trading plan every day and for every trade you intend to make. If you did not have time to plan every trade, be sure to review those you did make without pre-planning. Then you can go back over your trading and be able to see why and when you are successful.
Reminder: Here are some steps to take before the market opens.
· View major formations on the charts of those futures you intend to trade. View potential congestion areas, get the big picture from the longer term charts.
· Write down all potential entries as you see them on the chart.
You need to go through this exercise every day that you trade. This takes discipline. However, doing so will help you develop the kinds of habits that will mold you into a great trader.
If you are too busy to be disciplined, then you are too busy to trade. If you don’t discipline yourself, you will soon disappear from the trading scene.
The Mastery Of Self
We do everything for a reason. The reason behind any act is, for the most part, unconscious. If we want to change a behaviour we need to identify the reason, the underlying objective, and examine it. We need to examine it to determine whether this objective, this assumption, supports us in what we want to do now.
Most of the beliefs, or rules, that govern our behaviour now, were formed in early childhood. They have become predominantly unconscious beliefs and their effect is to dictate the way we respond. Most of these beliefs continue to support us well, but some have long outgrown their value.
My baby son Arthur, does not yet know that touching a hot stove is painful. At some point he will burn himself and he will start to form a set of beliefs about hot things that will, by governing his behaviour, protect him from getting burnt. He won’t necessarily remember these early experiences with heat, but his new beliefs will continue to guide him for the rest of his life.
When it comes to trading, most of what we have learnt to date and the beliefs that we have formed about success are inappropriate.
When we are trading we need to be:
· Quick to cut a loss
· Flexible to the ever-changing flow of information
· Take the lead from the market rather than try to control it
· Comfortable with uncertainty and risk
What are we taught about success?
· Not to be a quitter
· To be decisive, not fickle
· To take charge/control
· To dictate
· To stamp out uncertainty
It is not difficult to see that what we believe about success in all other areas of life will work against us as traders. Lets look at some particular behaviours in trading.
Not cutting losses, what is the likely thinking that would result in this behaviour?
· Losing is bad (If I lose then I am a loser)
· Being wrong is bad (we all learn this at school!)
· To take charge/control
· I want to be right all the time i.e. perfectionist
· And snatching profits:
Fear of losing what we have (losing is bad again)
Need to feel good (I am not good enough)
Ultimately I thing we struggle as traders because we want and need to feel good about ourselves and we are looking to the market for this affirmation. We are reluctant to take a loss because we think a loss is bad and that it underlines our fear that we are bad (a loser). We snatch profits because we are desperate for information that supports the idea that we are good.
If I have an unshakeable belief that I am good, then I would not look to the market for approval; we only look for something we think we don’t have. To resolve this problem we need to simultaneously work on and build the belief that we are already perfect and we need to shift our neediness away from the market and seek affirmation from another source.
Regards,
Most of the beliefs, or rules, that govern our behaviour now, were formed in early childhood. They have become predominantly unconscious beliefs and their effect is to dictate the way we respond. Most of these beliefs continue to support us well, but some have long outgrown their value.
My baby son Arthur, does not yet know that touching a hot stove is painful. At some point he will burn himself and he will start to form a set of beliefs about hot things that will, by governing his behaviour, protect him from getting burnt. He won’t necessarily remember these early experiences with heat, but his new beliefs will continue to guide him for the rest of his life.
When it comes to trading, most of what we have learnt to date and the beliefs that we have formed about success are inappropriate.
When we are trading we need to be:
· Quick to cut a loss
· Flexible to the ever-changing flow of information
· Take the lead from the market rather than try to control it
· Comfortable with uncertainty and risk
What are we taught about success?
· Not to be a quitter
· To be decisive, not fickle
· To take charge/control
· To dictate
· To stamp out uncertainty
It is not difficult to see that what we believe about success in all other areas of life will work against us as traders. Lets look at some particular behaviours in trading.
Not cutting losses, what is the likely thinking that would result in this behaviour?
· Losing is bad (If I lose then I am a loser)
· Being wrong is bad (we all learn this at school!)
· To take charge/control
· I want to be right all the time i.e. perfectionist
· And snatching profits:
Fear of losing what we have (losing is bad again)
Need to feel good (I am not good enough)
Ultimately I thing we struggle as traders because we want and need to feel good about ourselves and we are looking to the market for this affirmation. We are reluctant to take a loss because we think a loss is bad and that it underlines our fear that we are bad (a loser). We snatch profits because we are desperate for information that supports the idea that we are good.
If I have an unshakeable belief that I am good, then I would not look to the market for approval; we only look for something we think we don’t have. To resolve this problem we need to simultaneously work on and build the belief that we are already perfect and we need to shift our neediness away from the market and seek affirmation from another source.
Regards,
Discretionary Traders - Don’t Talk About Your Open Positions
In browsing around the web I often encounter discussions of the merits of a particular trade and opinions about the direction of a market. I know that the traders who voice these opinions have good intentions and much of the discussions could be helpful to the person receiving the information. (Some of these discussions are on our Forum.) However the provider of the opinion must be very careful that he doesn’t start believing too strongly in his position because he has made the mistake of going public with it.
This is an important psychological issue that I seldom see discussed. Taking losses is always difficult and the reluctance to promptly acknowledge that we are on the wrong side of the market is probably the single most costly error a trader can make. Even under the best of conditions we hate to take losses. Publicly advocating a particular trade or the direction of a market just makes being wrong all the more painful and harder to accept. If we make it a policy to go around advocating the merits of our trades it will only make it harder to recognize when we are wrong.
Many years ago when I was a young futures broker at E. F. Hutton and Company, the firm decided that it would be a good idea to send our commodity research analysts on the road whenever they came up with a well researched idea that appeared to have great potential. Let’s assume for a minute that our sugar analyst has decided that sugar is going to make a big move to the upside over the next six months. After publishing his research he would be sent from city to city where he would speak at meetings for brokers and clients suggesting why everyone should be buying sugar. At first the analyst road shows seemed like a great idea. The clients received the benefit of hearing about a well-researched idea straight from the analyst himself and also had the opportunity to ask questions and engage the analyst in a discussion of the details of the sugar market. The clients enjoyed the meetings and a lot of new commodity business was generated as a result.
However, it turns out that the objectivity of the analysts was completely lost after the story had been told and the bullish scenario presented a dozen times or more. The analyst felt obligated to the firm and to the clients. The firm had spent a lot of money to send the analyst on the road and to host these meeting all over the country. As a result of the meetings the clients now knew the analysts by name and his personal and professional reputation was clearly on the line. This analyst was now committed and he was going to be bullish on sugar regardless of what happened in the market or what new information came to light. From the point of the tours onward the analyst would only look for information to support his opinion. To ever admit that he was wrong would be such public humiliation that the analyst would tend to ignore any contrary information and would stick to his original position through thick and thin. We eventually learned that the talented Hutton research analysts did a much better job when they were free to change their minds as new facts were revealed without the pressure and responsibility generated by their repeated espousing of a particular position on a specific trade.
Discretionary traders should learn from this example and avoid discussing their open positions or their opinion about the direction of a market. It will only distort their objectivity and make it harder to take a loss promptly when that is the best course of action. Losses that only we know about are tough enough but losses that everyone knows about become much harder to stomach and we tend to postpone our exits in hope that the market will eventually turn around and prove us right. Remember that the best discretionary traders are usually very neutral about their positions and tend to take their guidance from the price action and the flow of new information. Its OK to listen to others talk about their positions but don’t make it a habit of discussing your open trades. It will only cost you money, especially if you repeat your opinions often enough that you might actually start believing what you are saying.
Fortunately, systematic traders seldom get married to a position. They enjoy the luxury of being able to blame the system if a trade doesn’t work out. Since there is little personal attachment to any trade, the psychological problems of systematic trader are much different than those of discretionary traders. But even systematic traders have their share of psychological problems. Perhaps we can discuss some of these problems in a future Bulletin.
This is an important psychological issue that I seldom see discussed. Taking losses is always difficult and the reluctance to promptly acknowledge that we are on the wrong side of the market is probably the single most costly error a trader can make. Even under the best of conditions we hate to take losses. Publicly advocating a particular trade or the direction of a market just makes being wrong all the more painful and harder to accept. If we make it a policy to go around advocating the merits of our trades it will only make it harder to recognize when we are wrong.
Many years ago when I was a young futures broker at E. F. Hutton and Company, the firm decided that it would be a good idea to send our commodity research analysts on the road whenever they came up with a well researched idea that appeared to have great potential. Let’s assume for a minute that our sugar analyst has decided that sugar is going to make a big move to the upside over the next six months. After publishing his research he would be sent from city to city where he would speak at meetings for brokers and clients suggesting why everyone should be buying sugar. At first the analyst road shows seemed like a great idea. The clients received the benefit of hearing about a well-researched idea straight from the analyst himself and also had the opportunity to ask questions and engage the analyst in a discussion of the details of the sugar market. The clients enjoyed the meetings and a lot of new commodity business was generated as a result.
However, it turns out that the objectivity of the analysts was completely lost after the story had been told and the bullish scenario presented a dozen times or more. The analyst felt obligated to the firm and to the clients. The firm had spent a lot of money to send the analyst on the road and to host these meeting all over the country. As a result of the meetings the clients now knew the analysts by name and his personal and professional reputation was clearly on the line. This analyst was now committed and he was going to be bullish on sugar regardless of what happened in the market or what new information came to light. From the point of the tours onward the analyst would only look for information to support his opinion. To ever admit that he was wrong would be such public humiliation that the analyst would tend to ignore any contrary information and would stick to his original position through thick and thin. We eventually learned that the talented Hutton research analysts did a much better job when they were free to change their minds as new facts were revealed without the pressure and responsibility generated by their repeated espousing of a particular position on a specific trade.
Discretionary traders should learn from this example and avoid discussing their open positions or their opinion about the direction of a market. It will only distort their objectivity and make it harder to take a loss promptly when that is the best course of action. Losses that only we know about are tough enough but losses that everyone knows about become much harder to stomach and we tend to postpone our exits in hope that the market will eventually turn around and prove us right. Remember that the best discretionary traders are usually very neutral about their positions and tend to take their guidance from the price action and the flow of new information. Its OK to listen to others talk about their positions but don’t make it a habit of discussing your open trades. It will only cost you money, especially if you repeat your opinions often enough that you might actually start believing what you are saying.
Fortunately, systematic traders seldom get married to a position. They enjoy the luxury of being able to blame the system if a trade doesn’t work out. Since there is little personal attachment to any trade, the psychological problems of systematic trader are much different than those of discretionary traders. But even systematic traders have their share of psychological problems. Perhaps we can discuss some of these problems in a future Bulletin.
Apr 22, 2009
An Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900
From a historical perspective since 1900 there have been 3 Secular Bull Markets and 3 Secular Bear Markets as shown by the tables below of the Dow and S&P 500. As you can see during a Secular Bull Market the Average Annual Return (highlighted in red) is considerably higher than during a Secular Bear Market (highlighted in blue). Thus the long term Buy and Hold strategy that worked well in the 1980’s and 1990’s for investors may have not worked very well during the Secular Bear Markets of 1906-1921, 1929-1949 and 1966-1982.
Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and Dow Performance
The big question is now are we in the beginning stages of a 4th Secular Bear Mark
et which started in 2000. The average length of the previous 3 Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 21 years. Thus if you add 18 years to the year 2000 and take + or - 3 years on either side then the next Secular Bull Market may not begin until sometime in the 2015 to 2021 time period if we are now entering a 4th Secular Bear Market. However I would like to point out that even in a Secular Bear Market there can still be Bull Markets lasting a year or two as the longer term charts of the Dow show below.
Notice after the Secular Bull Market of 1922-1928 which was followed by a Secular Bear Market from 1929-1949 that the Dow still had impressive gains during the early to mid 1930s (points A to B) before going through another Bear Cycle prior too and during World War II (points B to C). This was then followed by another Bull Cycle from 1943-1946 (points C to D). However from the early part of 1937 (point B) until the end of 1949 (point E) the Dow virtually had a net gain of 0% as its basic overall pattern was a series of up and down movements which pretty much cancelled each other out.
Meanwhile after the Secular Bull Market from 1950-1965 the Dow once again went through another Secular Bear Market from 1966-1982. Notice after the Dow peaked in early 1966 (point F) that it had a lot of upward and downward movements from 1966 through 1982 but it basically went nowhere and actually was lower at the end of 1982 (point G) versus its peak in early 1966 (point F).
Looking at the current chart of the Dow shows that it has been exhibiting a choppy pattern similar to previous Secular Bear Market environments after experiencing a Secular Bull Market from 1983-1999. One has to wonder during the next 10 years or so whether the Dow will continue to exhibit a similar pattern that occurred from the mid 1960’s through the 1970’s in which it had a lot of downward and upward moves but the overall net gain was negligible.
Even if we go through another Secular Bear Market over the next several years there will still be plenty of smaller Bull Markets and if taken advantage of properly will still lead to some excellent investment opportunities in the future.
Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and Dow Performance
The big question is now are we in the beginning stages of a 4th Secular Bear Mark
et which started in 2000. The average length of the previous 3 Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 21 years. Thus if you add 18 years to the year 2000 and take + or - 3 years on either side then the next Secular Bull Market may not begin until sometime in the 2015 to 2021 time period if we are now entering a 4th Secular Bear Market. However I would like to point out that even in a Secular Bear Market there can still be Bull Markets lasting a year or two as the longer term charts of the Dow show below.
Notice after the Secular Bull Market of 1922-1928 which was followed by a Secular Bear Market from 1929-1949 that the Dow still had impressive gains during the early to mid 1930s (points A to B) before going through another Bear Cycle prior too and during World War II (points B to C). This was then followed by another Bull Cycle from 1943-1946 (points C to D). However from the early part of 1937 (point B) until the end of 1949 (point E) the Dow virtually had a net gain of 0% as its basic overall pattern was a series of up and down movements which pretty much cancelled each other out.
Meanwhile after the Secular Bull Market from 1950-1965 the Dow once again went through another Secular Bear Market from 1966-1982. Notice after the Dow peaked in early 1966 (point F) that it had a lot of upward and downward movements from 1966 through 1982 but it basically went nowhere and actually was lower at the end of 1982 (point G) versus its peak in early 1966 (point F).
Looking at the current chart of the Dow shows that it has been exhibiting a choppy pattern similar to previous Secular Bear Market environments after experiencing a Secular Bull Market from 1983-1999. One has to wonder during the next 10 years or so whether the Dow will continue to exhibit a similar pattern that occurred from the mid 1960’s through the 1970’s in which it had a lot of downward and upward moves but the overall net gain was negligible.
Even if we go through another Secular Bear Market over the next several years there will still be plenty of smaller Bull Markets and if taken advantage of properly will still lead to some excellent investment opportunities in the future.
Stock Target Price
Using the 10 Day Moving Average of the VIX (Volatility Index) to time a Reversal in the the S&P 500
Investors can get an idea of when the market may reverse when the 10 Day Moving Average (MA) of the Volatility Index (VIX) becomes significantly stretched away from its 10 Day Moving Average (MA). A simple example is shown below which compares the 10 Day MA of the VIX to the S&P 500.
Notice when the VIX got stretched significantly away from its 10 Day MA (blue line) to the upside (points A) that the S&P 500 made a bottom (points B) and then reversed to the upside.
Thus keeping track of where the Volatility Index is in relation to its 10 Day Moving Average can give investors a clue to when the market may be getting close to a near term bottom and possible upside reversal.
Investors can get an idea of when the market may reverse when the 10 Day Moving Average (MA) of the Volatility Index (VIX) becomes significantly stretched away from its 10 Day Moving Average (MA). A simple example is shown below which compares the 10 Day MA of the VIX to the S&P 500.
Notice when the VIX got stretched significantly away from its 10 Day MA (blue line) to the upside (points A) that the S&P 500 made a bottom (points B) and then reversed to the upside.
Thus keeping track of where the Volatility Index is in relation to its 10 Day Moving Average can give investors a clue to when the market may be getting close to a near term bottom and possible upside reversal.
Using Elliot Wave Theory to Analyze the Stock Market
Some market technicians that use technical analysis to look for a nearing market bottom or market top have noticed over the past several years that the stock market will consistently move in a 5 wave pattern which is based on concepts from Elliott Wave Theory. When the stock market is trending upward a 5 wave pattern consists of 3 separate moves upward and 2 separate moves downward before a top occurs. Meanwhile when the stock market is trending downward a 5 wave pattern consists of 3 separate moves downward and 2 separate moves upward before a bottom occurs.
Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq and S&P 500 and analyze their one year charts using concepts from Elliot Wave Theory. Notice how both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made a bottom in late July of 2002 (points A) and then made 3 separate moves upward (A to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) followed by 2 separate moves downward (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before topping out in late August after completing a 5 wave pattern.
Now notice what happened from late August until early October of 2002 as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made 3 separate moves to the downside (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 separate moves to the upside (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before making a bottom in early October after completing a 5 wave pattern.
Meanwhile lets continue using Elliot Wave Theory an trace out the 5 wave pattern from early October of 2002 until early December of 2002 when the stock market made a top. Notice there were 3 separate moves to the upside (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 separate moves to the downside (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) as well.
After the Nasdaq and S&P 500 topped out in early December they formed another 5 wave pattern as they made a bottom in mid March of 2003. Once again there were 3 downside moves (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 upside moves (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before the 5 wave pattern was completed in mid March.
Now I’m not an expert in Elliot Wave Theory but it looks to me that the Nasdaq and S&P 500 may be nearing the completion of another 5 wave pattern with a potential stock market top coming into play. Notice there have been 3 upside moves (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 downside moves (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) since mid March through late May of 2003.
Adding concepts from Elliot Wave Theory is another tool investors can use to help predict when a stock market bottom or top is nearing.
Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq and S&P 500 and analyze their one year charts using concepts from Elliot Wave Theory. Notice how both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made a bottom in late July of 2002 (points A) and then made 3 separate moves upward (A to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) followed by 2 separate moves downward (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before topping out in late August after completing a 5 wave pattern.
Now notice what happened from late August until early October of 2002 as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made 3 separate moves to the downside (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 separate moves to the upside (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before making a bottom in early October after completing a 5 wave pattern.
Meanwhile lets continue using Elliot Wave Theory an trace out the 5 wave pattern from early October of 2002 until early December of 2002 when the stock market made a top. Notice there were 3 separate moves to the upside (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 separate moves to the downside (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) as well.
After the Nasdaq and S&P 500 topped out in early December they formed another 5 wave pattern as they made a bottom in mid March of 2003. Once again there were 3 downside moves (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 upside moves (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before the 5 wave pattern was completed in mid March.
Now I’m not an expert in Elliot Wave Theory but it looks to me that the Nasdaq and S&P 500 may be nearing the completion of another 5 wave pattern with a potential stock market top coming into play. Notice there have been 3 upside moves (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 downside moves (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) since mid March through late May of 2003.
Adding concepts from Elliot Wave Theory is another tool investors can use to help predict when a stock market bottom or top is nearing.
The Seven Most Traded Currencies in FOREX
Currencies are traded in dollar amounts called “lots”. One lot is equal to $1,000, which controls $100,000 in currency. This is what is known as the "margin". You can control $100,000 worth of currency for only 1,000 dollars. This is what is called “High Leverage”.
Currencies are always traded in pairs in the FOREX. The pairs have a unique notation that expresses what currencies are being traded. The symbol for a currency pair will always be in the form ABC/DEF. ABC/DEF is not a real currency pair, it is an example of a symbol for a currency pair. In this example ABC is the symbol for one countries currency and DEF is the symbol for another countries currency.
Here are some of the common symbols used in the Forex:
USD - The US Dollar EUR - The currency of the European Union "EURO" GBP - The British Pound JPN - The Japanese Yen CHF - The Swiss Franc AUD - The Australian Dollar CAD - The Canadian Dollar
There are symbols for other currencies as well, but these are the most commonly traded ones.
A currency can never be traded by itself. So you can not ever trade a EUR by itself. You always need to compare one currency with another currency to make a trade possible.
Some of the common PAIRS are:
EUR/USD Euro / US Dollar "Euro"
USD/JPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen "Dollar Yen"
GBP/USD British Pound / US Dollar "Cable"
USD/CAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar "Dollar Canada"
AUD/USD Australian Dollar/US Dollar "Aussie Dollar"
USD/CHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc "Swissy"
EUR/JPY Euro / Japanese Yen "Euro Yen"
The listed currency pairs above look like a fraction. The numerator (top of the fraction or "left" of the / however you want to SEE it) is called the base currency. The denominator (bottom of the fraction or "right" of the /however you want to SEE it) is called the counter currency. When you place an order to buy the EUR/USD, for instance, you are actually buying the EUR and selling the USD. If you were to sell the pair, you would be selling the EUR and buying the USD. So if you buy or sell a currency PAIR, you are buying/selling the base currency. You are always doing the opposite of what you did with to base currency with the counter currency.
If this seems confusing then you’re in luck. You can always get by with just thinking of the entire pair as one item. Then you are just buying or selling that one item. Thinking like this will still enable you to place trades. You only need to be aware of the base/counter concept for Fundamental Analysis issues.
So why is it important to know about the base/counter currency? The base/counter currency concept illustrates what is actually taking place in a Forex transaction. Some of you reading this, know that short-selling was restricted in the stock market *(Short-selling is where you sell a stock/currency/option/commodity first and then try to buy it back at a lower price later). But in the FOREX you are always buying one currency (base) and selling another (counter). If you sell the pair you are simply flipping which one you buy and which one you sell. The transaction is essentially the same. This allows you to short-sell with no restrictions.
You want to be able to short-sell with no restrictions so you can make money when the market drops as well as when it rises. The problem with traditional stock market trading is that the market has to go up for you to make money. With FOREX trading you can make money in all directions.
Currencies are always traded in pairs in the FOREX. The pairs have a unique notation that expresses what currencies are being traded. The symbol for a currency pair will always be in the form ABC/DEF. ABC/DEF is not a real currency pair, it is an example of a symbol for a currency pair. In this example ABC is the symbol for one countries currency and DEF is the symbol for another countries currency.
Here are some of the common symbols used in the Forex:
USD - The US Dollar EUR - The currency of the European Union "EURO" GBP - The British Pound JPN - The Japanese Yen CHF - The Swiss Franc AUD - The Australian Dollar CAD - The Canadian Dollar
There are symbols for other currencies as well, but these are the most commonly traded ones.
A currency can never be traded by itself. So you can not ever trade a EUR by itself. You always need to compare one currency with another currency to make a trade possible.
Some of the common PAIRS are:
EUR/USD Euro / US Dollar "Euro"
USD/JPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen "Dollar Yen"
GBP/USD British Pound / US Dollar "Cable"
USD/CAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar "Dollar Canada"
AUD/USD Australian Dollar/US Dollar "Aussie Dollar"
USD/CHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc "Swissy"
EUR/JPY Euro / Japanese Yen "Euro Yen"
The listed currency pairs above look like a fraction. The numerator (top of the fraction or "left" of the / however you want to SEE it) is called the base currency. The denominator (bottom of the fraction or "right" of the /however you want to SEE it) is called the counter currency. When you place an order to buy the EUR/USD, for instance, you are actually buying the EUR and selling the USD. If you were to sell the pair, you would be selling the EUR and buying the USD. So if you buy or sell a currency PAIR, you are buying/selling the base currency. You are always doing the opposite of what you did with to base currency with the counter currency.
If this seems confusing then you’re in luck. You can always get by with just thinking of the entire pair as one item. Then you are just buying or selling that one item. Thinking like this will still enable you to place trades. You only need to be aware of the base/counter concept for Fundamental Analysis issues.
So why is it important to know about the base/counter currency? The base/counter currency concept illustrates what is actually taking place in a Forex transaction. Some of you reading this, know that short-selling was restricted in the stock market *(Short-selling is where you sell a stock/currency/option/commodity first and then try to buy it back at a lower price later). But in the FOREX you are always buying one currency (base) and selling another (counter). If you sell the pair you are simply flipping which one you buy and which one you sell. The transaction is essentially the same. This allows you to short-sell with no restrictions.
You want to be able to short-sell with no restrictions so you can make money when the market drops as well as when it rises. The problem with traditional stock market trading is that the market has to go up for you to make money. With FOREX trading you can make money in all directions.
Forex Trading: The Perfect Forex Trading System
Trading the Forex market has become very popular in the last few years. But how difficult is it to achieve success in the Forex trading arena? Or let me rephrase this question, how many traders achieve consistent profitable results trading the Forex market? Unfortunately very few, only about 5% of traders achieve this goal. One of the main reasons of this is because Forex traders focus in the wrong information to make their trading decisions and totally forget about the most important factor: Price behavior.
Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators. But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.
There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as "the MA crossover made the price go up," but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I’m trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.
Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn’t want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.
Don’t get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.
So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.
Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.
Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.
Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators. But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.
There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as "the MA crossover made the price go up," but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I’m trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.
Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn’t want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.
Don’t get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.
So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.
Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.
Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.
Day Trading Indicators and Indicator Trading
Did You Begin Day Trading As An Indicator Only Trader?
Did you start day trading after buying a book on technical analysis, and getting a charting program - probably a free one that you found online - in order to save money? While reading your book you learned about trading indicators which could ’predict’ price movement, and what do you know, the ’best’ indicators were actually included in your free charting program - let the games begin.
Now that you have all the day trading tools that are necessary, the book for education AND the free charting program with those ’best’ day trading indicators, you now need a day trading plan so you can decide which ones of those ’magic’ day trading indicators you are supposed to use. This really is a great book, besides telling you how to day trade using indicators to ’predict’ price - it also said that you need a trading plan to day trade.
So what should this plan be? The book told you about trend following using an indicator called macd, and it also told you how it was possible to pick the top or bottoms using an indicator called stochastic; my guess is that you picked the stochastic indicator to start your day trading - this must be the ’best of the best’ since this indicator was going to ensure you of entering your trades with the ’best’ price. Amazing, simply amazing how easy this day trading stuff really is. In fact, why even bother taking the trades, each time your indicators give a signal - just call up your broker and tell him to stick $100 in your account.
My book was Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets. My charting program was TradeStation with an eSignal fm receiver; that was the one that if you hung the antennae wires just right, and you put enough foil on the tips, you might even get quotes. I had sold a business before I started trading so I did have some capital - isn’t that how everyone gets into trading, you either sell a business or you lose your job? My indicator was the macd as I had decided that I was going to be a ’trend follower’ instead of a ’top-bottom picker’. I also decided that I was going to be ’extra’ clever, if one indicator was good than two indicators must be better, so I added a 20 period moving average. My first trade was a winner, then after many months of extensive therapy, I was finally able to forget the next twelve months - ahhh the memories ƒ؛
Learning To Day Trading - The Learning Progression
Beginning to day trade, or learning to day trade, as an indicator trader is very typical. This is also logical when you consider - HOW are you supposed to initially learn how to trade? Trading indicators are available to anyone who has a charting program, and simply using line crosses, or histogram color changes, provide ’easy’ signals to understand. If you will also take the time to learn the arithmetic behind your indicators, as well as learning what each indicator is specifically intended to do, not only is this a logical way to begin, it is also a good ’step’ in your learning progression - understanding the WHAT you are doing, instead of attempting to create ’canned’ indicator only trading systems, without any regard as to WHY you are trading this way.
This does become one of the ’sticking’ points in your learning progression, as you come to find out that you are unable to profitably trade indicators as signals only - now what? Now what - you ’can’t’ develop your own indicators, so you start doing google searches for day trading indicators and start buying your ’collection’ - they don’t ’work’ either. Now what - you buy a mechanical trading system - what does hypothetical results may not be indicative of real trading or future results mean? Now what - you start subscribing to signal services OR you start joining the ’latest and greatest’ chat room - am I really the only person using the signals who isn’t profitable?
Now what - you never learn how to trade.
I began trading as an indicator trader, and I did try to learn everything that I could about the various indicators, as well as trying to combine indicators that were consistent with how I wanted to trade - I just could never develop a mechanical day trading system from what was available to me. I read a couple more books that didn’t really help me, so I then started looking for someone who could teach me. From what I now know about gurus -vs- teachers, I am very lucky that I got involved with a money manager-trader who taught me a tremendous amount, but I still couldn’t get profitable, in part because there was also ’pressure’ to learn how to trade using real money. As well, any discussions or thoughts about trading psychology and the issues involved, especially to beginning traders, was non-existent.
Now what - learning but losing - I stopped trading. Learning to trading using real money, and ’scoffing’ at trading psychology as simply individual weakness, really was something that I now regard as misinformation. I always mention this as I now feel that this cost me as much as a year of time, and was very close to costing me my trading future, as stopped trading was VERY close to quitting trading. How can’t trading psychology be real to a beginner, when you consider that you are risking losing money at a very fast pace as a day trader, and when you further consider that you are also doing this when you really don’t know what you are doing - this is NOT by definition being weak. And if trading psychology is real, how are you going to learn to make ’good’ trading habits with real money while you are fighting the implications?
Now what - not trading and not ready [quite] to quit - still studying and searching.
Probably the single most important ’thing’ that got me to a next step in learning how to trade, was the concept of a trading setup, and that a setup and a signal were not the same. This was extremely meaningful to me, as it also led to an understanding of how to better use trading indicators for the information that they can provide, but not to use them as trading signals - in essence I began learning about trading method where discretion could be consistently applied -vs- trading system that was mechanical and arithmetic rules.
Traders who are indicator only traders, are also what I refer to right side only traders, that is they are always looking at the right side of their charts for an indicator signal. BUT what about the left side of the chart, what about price and patterns, what about market conditions - WHAT about the relevant ’things’ that are ’moving’ price, instead of indicators only as an arithmetic derivative of price, and thus, one that is dependant on the time frame that you have chosen to trade from? These ’thoughts’, along with the concept of trade setup, became instrumental in the development of a trading method, and how I came to turning my trading around.
When I think about the steps in my learning progression - I would list them as follows:
2/95 - 6/96 indicators only teaching service that included signals learning to trading with real money and trading psychology issues stop trading
6/96 - 3/97 understanding of trading psychology issues learning about trading setups concept trading method -vs- trading system trade setup - trade trigger are not the same method development understand the importance of the left side of the chart and what is happening ’across’ the chart related trading setups and how/when they triggered indicators + pattern indicators + pattern + price indicators + pattern + price + market conditions
3/97 - 11/97 able to paper trade profitably able to real money trade profitably able to trade for a living
Indicator Only Day Trader - Setup Including Indicators Method Day Trader
I have attempted to discuss the way I started day trading, and the way I think many-most traders typically begin. Along with this, I have pointed various issues and problems that I had - those regarding how to learn to trade, and then progressing into a profitable trader. My experiences have been both personal, as well as those of many traders that I have worked with over the last 8-9 years through Tactical Trading - that a very large number of these problems are due to day trading only with indicators, the specific indicators used, along with trying to turn these indicators into a mechanical trading system. This is not to say that this can’t be done - I simply couldn’t do it. However, I would strongly suggest that anyone who is in the early stages of day trading, or struggling with their day trading, consider these things that have been discussed.
Did you start day trading after buying a book on technical analysis, and getting a charting program - probably a free one that you found online - in order to save money? While reading your book you learned about trading indicators which could ’predict’ price movement, and what do you know, the ’best’ indicators were actually included in your free charting program - let the games begin.
Now that you have all the day trading tools that are necessary, the book for education AND the free charting program with those ’best’ day trading indicators, you now need a day trading plan so you can decide which ones of those ’magic’ day trading indicators you are supposed to use. This really is a great book, besides telling you how to day trade using indicators to ’predict’ price - it also said that you need a trading plan to day trade.
So what should this plan be? The book told you about trend following using an indicator called macd, and it also told you how it was possible to pick the top or bottoms using an indicator called stochastic; my guess is that you picked the stochastic indicator to start your day trading - this must be the ’best of the best’ since this indicator was going to ensure you of entering your trades with the ’best’ price. Amazing, simply amazing how easy this day trading stuff really is. In fact, why even bother taking the trades, each time your indicators give a signal - just call up your broker and tell him to stick $100 in your account.
My book was Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets. My charting program was TradeStation with an eSignal fm receiver; that was the one that if you hung the antennae wires just right, and you put enough foil on the tips, you might even get quotes. I had sold a business before I started trading so I did have some capital - isn’t that how everyone gets into trading, you either sell a business or you lose your job? My indicator was the macd as I had decided that I was going to be a ’trend follower’ instead of a ’top-bottom picker’. I also decided that I was going to be ’extra’ clever, if one indicator was good than two indicators must be better, so I added a 20 period moving average. My first trade was a winner, then after many months of extensive therapy, I was finally able to forget the next twelve months - ahhh the memories ƒ؛
Learning To Day Trading - The Learning Progression
Beginning to day trade, or learning to day trade, as an indicator trader is very typical. This is also logical when you consider - HOW are you supposed to initially learn how to trade? Trading indicators are available to anyone who has a charting program, and simply using line crosses, or histogram color changes, provide ’easy’ signals to understand. If you will also take the time to learn the arithmetic behind your indicators, as well as learning what each indicator is specifically intended to do, not only is this a logical way to begin, it is also a good ’step’ in your learning progression - understanding the WHAT you are doing, instead of attempting to create ’canned’ indicator only trading systems, without any regard as to WHY you are trading this way.
This does become one of the ’sticking’ points in your learning progression, as you come to find out that you are unable to profitably trade indicators as signals only - now what? Now what - you ’can’t’ develop your own indicators, so you start doing google searches for day trading indicators and start buying your ’collection’ - they don’t ’work’ either. Now what - you buy a mechanical trading system - what does hypothetical results may not be indicative of real trading or future results mean? Now what - you start subscribing to signal services OR you start joining the ’latest and greatest’ chat room - am I really the only person using the signals who isn’t profitable?
Now what - you never learn how to trade.
I began trading as an indicator trader, and I did try to learn everything that I could about the various indicators, as well as trying to combine indicators that were consistent with how I wanted to trade - I just could never develop a mechanical day trading system from what was available to me. I read a couple more books that didn’t really help me, so I then started looking for someone who could teach me. From what I now know about gurus -vs- teachers, I am very lucky that I got involved with a money manager-trader who taught me a tremendous amount, but I still couldn’t get profitable, in part because there was also ’pressure’ to learn how to trade using real money. As well, any discussions or thoughts about trading psychology and the issues involved, especially to beginning traders, was non-existent.
Now what - learning but losing - I stopped trading. Learning to trading using real money, and ’scoffing’ at trading psychology as simply individual weakness, really was something that I now regard as misinformation. I always mention this as I now feel that this cost me as much as a year of time, and was very close to costing me my trading future, as stopped trading was VERY close to quitting trading. How can’t trading psychology be real to a beginner, when you consider that you are risking losing money at a very fast pace as a day trader, and when you further consider that you are also doing this when you really don’t know what you are doing - this is NOT by definition being weak. And if trading psychology is real, how are you going to learn to make ’good’ trading habits with real money while you are fighting the implications?
Now what - not trading and not ready [quite] to quit - still studying and searching.
Probably the single most important ’thing’ that got me to a next step in learning how to trade, was the concept of a trading setup, and that a setup and a signal were not the same. This was extremely meaningful to me, as it also led to an understanding of how to better use trading indicators for the information that they can provide, but not to use them as trading signals - in essence I began learning about trading method where discretion could be consistently applied -vs- trading system that was mechanical and arithmetic rules.
Traders who are indicator only traders, are also what I refer to right side only traders, that is they are always looking at the right side of their charts for an indicator signal. BUT what about the left side of the chart, what about price and patterns, what about market conditions - WHAT about the relevant ’things’ that are ’moving’ price, instead of indicators only as an arithmetic derivative of price, and thus, one that is dependant on the time frame that you have chosen to trade from? These ’thoughts’, along with the concept of trade setup, became instrumental in the development of a trading method, and how I came to turning my trading around.
When I think about the steps in my learning progression - I would list them as follows:
2/95 - 6/96 indicators only teaching service that included signals learning to trading with real money and trading psychology issues stop trading
6/96 - 3/97 understanding of trading psychology issues learning about trading setups concept trading method -vs- trading system trade setup - trade trigger are not the same method development understand the importance of the left side of the chart and what is happening ’across’ the chart related trading setups and how/when they triggered indicators + pattern indicators + pattern + price indicators + pattern + price + market conditions
3/97 - 11/97 able to paper trade profitably able to real money trade profitably able to trade for a living
Indicator Only Day Trader - Setup Including Indicators Method Day Trader
I have attempted to discuss the way I started day trading, and the way I think many-most traders typically begin. Along with this, I have pointed various issues and problems that I had - those regarding how to learn to trade, and then progressing into a profitable trader. My experiences have been both personal, as well as those of many traders that I have worked with over the last 8-9 years through Tactical Trading - that a very large number of these problems are due to day trading only with indicators, the specific indicators used, along with trying to turn these indicators into a mechanical trading system. This is not to say that this can’t be done - I simply couldn’t do it. However, I would strongly suggest that anyone who is in the early stages of day trading, or struggling with their day trading, consider these things that have been discussed.
Apr 21, 2009
What is Forex ?
The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market, is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of approximately US$1.5 trillion. Foreign Exchange is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. The world’s currencies are on a floating exchange rate and are always traded in pairs, for example Euro/Dollar or Dollar/Yen.
Flat Base Chart Pattern
Stocks that have large price gains typically will stair-step upward and form Flat Bases before resuming their up trend. This action may occur several times as a stock remains in an up trend and could last from a few days to several weeks depending on the situation. Flat Bases are characterized by small daily trading ranges with volume being lower than normal. Although it doesn’t happen every time, the longer a stock remains in a Flat Base, the greater the price appreciation may be when the stock breaks out. Lets look at some examples below.
Here is a chart of EMLX. Notice how it formed a Flat Base (small trading range) from July through mid-August and then broke out of the base in on increasing volume (point A). It then formed another Flat Base in September and broke out of this base in early October and skyrocketed from $80 to $200.
Another example of a stock that had a few Flat Bases was KIDE. Notice in May and June the small daily trading ranges with low volume. Then in early July the stock broke out with increasing volume (point A) and went from $10 to $30 by mid-August. KIDE then formed another Flat Base from mid-August though early October and then exploded out of the base on higher volume (point B). The stock then went from $30 to $90 in four weeks. The total gain from July to November was 800% ($10 to $90).
Another example of a stock that was in a Flat Base pattern for a significant amount of time was MCOM. Notice that it traded sideways for at least 3 months before breaking out of the base on strong volume (point A). In this case MCOM went from $10 to $55 in 4 weeks for a gain of 450%.
As you can see, finding stocks that exhibit certain chart patterns (Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base) can lead to strong price appreciation when they breakout on strong volume.
Here is a chart of EMLX. Notice how it formed a Flat Base (small trading range) from July through mid-August and then broke out of the base in on increasing volume (point A). It then formed another Flat Base in September and broke out of this base in early October and skyrocketed from $80 to $200.
Another example of a stock that had a few Flat Bases was KIDE. Notice in May and June the small daily trading ranges with low volume. Then in early July the stock broke out with increasing volume (point A) and went from $10 to $30 by mid-August. KIDE then formed another Flat Base from mid-August though early October and then exploded out of the base on higher volume (point B). The stock then went from $30 to $90 in four weeks. The total gain from July to November was 800% ($10 to $90).
Another example of a stock that was in a Flat Base pattern for a significant amount of time was MCOM. Notice that it traded sideways for at least 3 months before breaking out of the base on strong volume (point A). In this case MCOM went from $10 to $55 in 4 weeks for a gain of 450%.
As you can see, finding stocks that exhibit certain chart patterns (Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base) can lead to strong price appreciation when they breakout on strong volume.
Double Bottom Chart Patterns
There are three favorable Chart Patterns to look for as an investor. They include the "Cup and Handle", "Double Bottom" and "Flat Base". This article will concentrate on the "Double Bottom" pattern which looks like the letter "W" as it develops. An example of a stock which had formed a Double Bottom pattern before breaking out to new 52 week highs was NVR in 2002.
NVR peaked in the Spring of 2001 and then sold off before making its 1st bottom in June (point A). From there it rallied into July (point B) but then sold off again and made a 2nd bottom in September (point C). After making the 2nd bottom NVR then rallied strongly again before stalling out near its previous Spring 2001 high and completed its Double Bottom "W" pattern. NVR then traded nearly sideways for 6 weeks and formed a Handle (H) before breaking out in late January of 2002 accompanied by strong volume (point D).
Each week we look for stocks which are exhibiting favorable chart patterns that have good Sales and Earnings Growth which may break out in the future and undergo significant price appreciation.
NVR peaked in the Spring of 2001 and then sold off before making its 1st bottom in June (point A). From there it rallied into July (point B) but then sold off again and made a 2nd bottom in September (point C). After making the 2nd bottom NVR then rallied strongly again before stalling out near its previous Spring 2001 high and completed its Double Bottom "W" pattern. NVR then traded nearly sideways for 6 weeks and formed a Handle (H) before breaking out in late January of 2002 accompanied by strong volume (point D).
Each week we look for stocks which are exhibiting favorable chart patterns that have good Sales and Earnings Growth which may break out in the future and undergo significant price appreciation.
Emini - Why does technical analysis work?
Technical analysis describes different ways of predicting the future of the stock/futures market based on its history. Unfortunately, technical analysis is not an exact science. Many prominent scientists label it as "voodoo science". They claim that due to market efficiency, if you use TA to find your entry positions, you’re no better off than someone who chooses those positions randomly. Market efficiency means that all the available information is already calculated in the stock prices, and that you can only guess how the price will behave in the future.
The "voodoo science" theory would make sense if it wasn’t for the fact that there is a significant number of traders who are able to consistently make profits in the stock/futures market. These traders use technical analysis as their main tool. Since any trader has or can have access to the same TA tools we have to ask how can a small group of traders consistently win and the other larger group, more or less consistently lose in the stock market game. What is it that winning traders know about technical analysis that gives them the upper hand?
The answer is simple: Technical Analysis works but not necessarily for the reason most people believe. Many successful traders don’t want to share this secret. TA works because many people use it, and successful traders are able to predict how other people will react on the different TA indicators and signals. In other words, while the losing traders are using TA to determine their trades, the winning traders are winning because they know how the losers are going to react based on this data. For example, when a price goes below one of the key moving averages, (MA’s) many investors sell that instrument to protect themselves against additional losses. By doing so, they will drive the price of that instrument lower and that will prompt some traders to start short selling that instrument in anticipation of further decline. Prices continue the downward trend, forcing traders who were long on that stock to sell their positions because it is going below their stop limits. This creates a domino effect as the price continues to decline. However, at this point, successful traders realize that most of the current price action was created artificially. They start to enter positions on the buy side and more often than not price starts to reverse. The losing traders have already sold their contracts based on the TA tools. The winning traders buy the contract because they understand that the fluctuation was temporary, and they seize the opportunity based on the losing trader’s reactions.
No TA tool by itself will give you reliable buy or sell signals. There is no Holy Grail or magic black box that will give you the perfect, accurate signal. However, the combining of the right group of TA indicators with discipline and adequate trading capital has been the road to fortune for many traders. There is no reason why you cannot emulate their success. Let’s take a look at an example.
Understanding Pivot Points
Pivot Points are those price levels that are most likely to act as levels of support and resistance on any given trading day. As we already know, Technical Analysis works because many people use it. For the same reason, the most influential pivot points are those that are used by majority of traders. The most widely used formula for calculating pivot points is as follows:
H = previous day’s high
L = previous day’s low
C = previous day’s close
Pivot Point = (H + L + C)/3
Resistance = 2*PP - L
Support = 2*PP - H
Previous day’s last two hour high = L2HrHigh
Previous day’s last two hour low = L2HrLow
When the price moves through the known pivot point on increased volume it is most likely to continue current trend, and if the price hits the known pivot point but is unable to move through it is most likely to reverse the current trend.
Figure above is a 5-minute candlestick chart for S&P 500 E-mini contract and you can observe how the Pivot Point was acting as a major support line throughout the trading day.
When the advancing/declining price is not able to move through the known pivot point after two or more tries there is a good probability that it will start to decline/advance. Trading method in which a trader is waiting for a price to reverse after hitting S/R level is called swing trading. On the other hand if the advancing/declining price has easily moved through known S/R level there is a good probability that it will continue to advance/decline. Trading method in which a trader is looking for a price to continue to move in the same direction after moving through S/R level is called breakout trading.
The "voodoo science" theory would make sense if it wasn’t for the fact that there is a significant number of traders who are able to consistently make profits in the stock/futures market. These traders use technical analysis as their main tool. Since any trader has or can have access to the same TA tools we have to ask how can a small group of traders consistently win and the other larger group, more or less consistently lose in the stock market game. What is it that winning traders know about technical analysis that gives them the upper hand?
The answer is simple: Technical Analysis works but not necessarily for the reason most people believe. Many successful traders don’t want to share this secret. TA works because many people use it, and successful traders are able to predict how other people will react on the different TA indicators and signals. In other words, while the losing traders are using TA to determine their trades, the winning traders are winning because they know how the losers are going to react based on this data. For example, when a price goes below one of the key moving averages, (MA’s) many investors sell that instrument to protect themselves against additional losses. By doing so, they will drive the price of that instrument lower and that will prompt some traders to start short selling that instrument in anticipation of further decline. Prices continue the downward trend, forcing traders who were long on that stock to sell their positions because it is going below their stop limits. This creates a domino effect as the price continues to decline. However, at this point, successful traders realize that most of the current price action was created artificially. They start to enter positions on the buy side and more often than not price starts to reverse. The losing traders have already sold their contracts based on the TA tools. The winning traders buy the contract because they understand that the fluctuation was temporary, and they seize the opportunity based on the losing trader’s reactions.
No TA tool by itself will give you reliable buy or sell signals. There is no Holy Grail or magic black box that will give you the perfect, accurate signal. However, the combining of the right group of TA indicators with discipline and adequate trading capital has been the road to fortune for many traders. There is no reason why you cannot emulate their success. Let’s take a look at an example.
Understanding Pivot Points
Pivot Points are those price levels that are most likely to act as levels of support and resistance on any given trading day. As we already know, Technical Analysis works because many people use it. For the same reason, the most influential pivot points are those that are used by majority of traders. The most widely used formula for calculating pivot points is as follows:
H = previous day’s high
L = previous day’s low
C = previous day’s close
Pivot Point = (H + L + C)/3
Resistance = 2*PP - L
Support = 2*PP - H
Previous day’s last two hour high = L2HrHigh
Previous day’s last two hour low = L2HrLow
When the price moves through the known pivot point on increased volume it is most likely to continue current trend, and if the price hits the known pivot point but is unable to move through it is most likely to reverse the current trend.
Figure above is a 5-minute candlestick chart for S&P 500 E-mini contract and you can observe how the Pivot Point was acting as a major support line throughout the trading day.
When the advancing/declining price is not able to move through the known pivot point after two or more tries there is a good probability that it will start to decline/advance. Trading method in which a trader is waiting for a price to reverse after hitting S/R level is called swing trading. On the other hand if the advancing/declining price has easily moved through known S/R level there is a good probability that it will continue to advance/decline. Trading method in which a trader is looking for a price to continue to move in the same direction after moving through S/R level is called breakout trading.
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